基于假设检验的编队组织决策设计

从集中式和分散式组织结构分析出发,采用假设检验的方法,探讨了分布式结构假设检验在海军舰艇编队环境评估中的组织决策设计,并从决策设计和算法上对其进行了复杂性分析.研究结果表明,基于假设检验的组织决策是一个NP问题,就存在的问题提出算法和组织设计研究的思路.     

基于Bayes估计的高炮虚拟校射理论

给出了脱靶量的定义,建立了小口径高炮虚拟校射脱靶量的一维数学模型,分析了脱耙量的统计性质,在此基础上运用贝叶斯估计理论,推导出校正量的最优估计量方程,并进行了相应分析.脱靶量可以作为一种离散的随机序列,任何一种特定的脱靶量序列均可表示为某种蜕化的广义马尔柯夫序列;脱靶量状态的最优估计问题是:基于观测输出{x(k);k=0,1,2,…}先验信息求取状态X(k)的最优滤波估计^X(k/k),使估计误差的方差最小,从而大大提高小高炮的射击精度.     

基于MDO方法的卫星集成设计系统分析与实现

为解决多学科设计优化方法中多学科设计、多学科分析、多学科优化过程与卫星总体设计流程集成的问题,采用变复杂度建模技术,并借鉴产品数据管理思想,设计并实现了面向总体设计的卫星集成设计软件系统。阐述了软件的设计思想、系统组成和功能特点,并给出了月球探测卫星概念设计问题的具体应用实例,结果表明软件在解决多学科设计优化方法应用于卫星集成设计问题时的可行性。     

基于气动-弹道一体化模型的飞行器外形优化设计

为提升飞行器气动外形优化设计效果,研究了新型飞行器在大空域、宽速域范围的气动适应性问题,提出一种基于气动-弹道一体化模型的外形优化设计方法.通过考虑气动和弹道的耦合作用,综合利用类型函数/形状函数转换技术、气动工程估算方法和Radau伪谱法,建立飞行器气动-弹道一体化模型.基于该模型,通过明确优化目标和约束条件,给出基...     

导弹结构热防护一体化设计与优化

针对导弹面临的严酷气动热力环境,基于传统波纹夹芯结构,为导弹设计了一种兼具承载和热防护功能的一体化结构。建立热-结构耦合计算模型,对一体化结构进行结构承载与热防护性能分析,结果表明:一体化结构在高温下具有较好的承载能力;增加一体化结构隔热层与内壁厚度有助于提高导弹的热防护效率。以一体化结构热防护效率最高和质量最小为目标,采用第二代非支配排序遗传算法实现了多目标优化,并认识到:一体化结构热防护效率与质量相互影响,设计时需要需综合考虑。     

Interdiction models for delaying adversarial attacks against critical information technology infrastructure

Information technology (IT) infrastructure relies on a globalized supply chain that is vulnerable to numerous risks from adversarial attacks. It is important to protect IT infrastructure from these dynamic, persistent risks by delaying adversarial exploits. In this paper, we propose max‐min interdiction models for critical infrastructure protection that prioritizes cost‐effective security mitigations to maximally delay adversarial attacks. We consider attacks originating from multiple adversaries, each of which aims to find a “critical path” through the attack surface to complete the corresponding attack as soon as possible. Decision‐makers can deploy mitigations to delay attack exploits, however, mitigation effectiveness is sometimes uncertain. We propose a stochastic model variant to address this uncertainty by incorporating random delay times. The proposed models can be reformulated as a nested max‐max problem using dualization. We propose a Lagrangian heuristic approach that decomposes the max‐max problem into a number of smaller subproblems, and updates upper and lower bounds to the original problem via subgradient optimization. We evaluate the perfect information solution value as an alternative method for updating the upper bound. Computational results demonstrate that the Lagrangian heuristic identifies near‐optimal solutions efficiently, which outperforms a general purpose mixed‐integer programming solver on medium and large instances.     

Supply chain coordination with product line design and a revenue sharing scheme

Many manufacturers sell their products through retailers and share the revenue with those retailers. Given this phenomenon, we build a stylized model to investigate the role of revenue sharing schemes in supply chain coordination and product variety decisions. In our model, a monopolistic manufacturer serves two segments of consumers, which are distinguished by their willingness to pay for quality. In the scenario with exogenous revenue sharing ratios, when the potential gain from serving the low segment is substantial (e.g., the low‐segment consumers' willingness to pay is high enough or the low segment takes a large enough proportion of the market), the retailer is better off abandoning the revenue sharing scheme. Moreover, when the potential gain from serving the low (high) segment is substantial enough, the manufacturer finds it profitable to offer a single product. Furthermore, when revenue sharing ratios are endogenous, we divide our analysis into two cases, depending on the methods of cooperation. When revenue sharing ratios are negotiated at the very beginning, the decentralized supply chain causes further distortion. This suggests that the central premise of revenue sharing—the coordination of supply chains—may be undermined if supply chain parties meticulously bargain over it.     

固定式超近程防护系统优化设计及统计分析

为了提高固定式超近程防护系统的拦截效率,进一步优化攻击单元的分布参数,将分布方案的分布参数5个射角和35个射向作为自变量,以拦截概率作为因变量,将已有的32种方案的分布方案及统计模拟所得的拦截概率作为样本值,运用SPSS软件进行多元线性回归分析,通过不断筛去显著性比较差的变量,最终得到比较满意、显著性比较强的多元线性回归方程,该方程的建立为进一步优化分布方案的参数提供了理论依据,也为建立进一步优化模型提供了理论基础.     

海军作战指挥综合仿真系统

在分析作战仿真的基本概念和应用领域的基础上,描述了作战仿真系统的军事需求,提出了海军作战指挥综合仿真系统的总体设计要求,分析了仿真系统的体系结构、组成及运行方式,阐述了仿真系统研究中的主要关键技术和应用方向.为海军新型作战指挥系统的研制建立了一个集成综合作战仿真系统.     

基于事故树分析法的火灾致灾因素分析

基于事故树分析法对火灾中的致灾因素进行分析,通过对近十年51起重、特大火灾进行归纳、统计,利用火灾调查理论知识与事故树相结合,将火灾中的致灾因素分为起火原因、火灾中人员伤亡因素、造成财产损失原因进行分类统计,并利用最小割集和最小径集,计算出顶上事件的发生概率。最后对事故树进行分析讨论,找出避免顶上事件发生的措施,得出减少或消除火灾致灾的对策,为做好重、特大火灾的预防工作提供了参考。