大学生思想政治教育中的“沉默螺旋”现象

"沉默的螺旋"理论是20世纪70年代德国社会学家诺尔诺依曼基于历史和传播的角度提出的关于舆论形成的理论假设,是现今学界研究受众反应的经典理论之一。本文就沉默螺旋理论在当代大学生思政传播中的存在性进行了论证,并分析了其对大学生思想政治教育可能产生的影响,结合实际,探讨了降低其负面影响的对策。     

舰艇编队防空过程建模及分析

防空作战是大型水面舰艇编队的主要作战样式之一。运用PEPA(性能评价过程代数)方法对舰艇编队防空作战全过程进行有效建模,形式化描述了预警探测、情报传递、命令下达、防空拦截等作战主要过程。建立的PEPA模型具有层次化结构,考虑了要素间相互协作,体现了编队防空作战分布、并发的特点。通过对建立的PEPA模型进行性能指标选择和稳定状态分析,得到了不同因素对编队能力发挥的影响情况,获得了防空作战的基本要素组成,从而提供了一种解决舰艇编队问题的新方法。     

Political transition to democracy

This paper argues that the crisis of electoral democracy in Zimbabwe and Cote d'Ivoire is a result of underlying structural and institutional deficiencies within national and regional multinational institutions. It assesses the extent to which they have been ‘enablers’ or ‘spoilers’ of electoral-based transitions to democracy. Yet it avoids generalisations of the security sector's involvement in political transitions. In terms of structure, the paper is divided into four sections. Section one will briefly discuss the theoretical perspectives of the election-democracy trajectory. It argues that although elections are a major variable for democracy, unless the ‘ecology of elections’ is conducive, elections may not be an instrument of transition to democracy. The second section analyses the militarisation of politics and the role of the security sector in aiding or stalling democratisation. Section three will assess the role of regional organisations such as the Southern African Development Community, Economic Community of West African States and the African Union in electoral-based political transitions in Africa. Lastly, the paper will discuss how the security sector and multinational African institutions can aid political transitions to democracy in troubled African countries.     

Explaining Lebanese Shii adherence to Hezbollah: alienation,religiosity and welfare provision

Data from a cross-sectional survey of 176 Lebanese Shiis living in Metropolitan Beirut have been used to investigate the relationship between social and religious variables and attitudes toward Lebanon's “Party of God” (Hezbollah). The results indicate that Islamic religiosity, political discontent, and access to social welfare are positively associated with endorsement of the party. The implications of these findings for the party's future in light of recent political developments are discussed.     

基于效果的炮兵行动C2系统动力学建模与仿真

一体化联合作战参战军兵种多、指挥控制(C2)与协调复杂。围绕炮兵行动特点要求,运用系统动力学理论建立联合作战炮兵行动指挥控制的系统动力学模型,研究常规打击和基于效果作战两种指挥控制模式下炮兵行动所产生的不同结果及其原因,并给合作战想定仿真验证,得出较为可靠的结论,为解决联合作战炮兵行动精确指挥控制与协调提供一种有效途径     

The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and popular support: counterterrorism towards an insurgency nature

The PKK has been a prolonged problem in Turkey, and various measures have been adopted to diminish and end the violence. In addition to the impacts on violence, these policies have also had an impact on public opinion and ethnic awareness of Kurds in Turkey. This article analyzes these policies and their effects on electoral support for the PKK by examining the vote shares of the pro-PKK political parties in national and local elections. It concludes that Turkey has conceptualized the issue solely as a problem of terrorism, but the goal, strategy, organization, and format of violence used by the PKK reflect the nature of an insurgency. Therefore, it is argued that Turkey, by ignoring the insurgency features, has disregarded the legitimate parts of the cause and related popular support, and thus has responded mostly with deterrent measures apart from the reforms of recent years. Results have shown that policies of deterrence culminated in a steady level of support for the PKK indicating that low level of legitimacy – as they were perceived by the people – of the policies resulted in viable popular and political support for the PKK. Despite the recent accommodative reforms, the existence of pro-PKK parties rallying electoral support in the political arena provided sustained level activities in the conventional politics in Turkey's municipal and national political system, in which they pursue pro-PKK agendas, such as ‘Autonomy’ and ‘Confederation’ as well as activities to increase the distinction in identity around the ethnic consciousness for more popular support. Yet, no clear pattern is identified between violence level and popular support in the macro-scale.     

When the green gets greener: political Islam's newly-found environmentalism

Although the environmental movement was established in the West, there is currently an Islamist variant that has received less attention. The Quran and the Hadiths provide guidance for the faithful on the relationship between Allah, humanity and nature. The article will examine and compare the environmental agendas of six Islamist groups: Hizb'allah, Hizb ut-Tahrir, Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, Jamaat-e-Islami, and al Qaeda. While they all share similar concerns, Islamists have developed globalized, glocalized, or localized ‘scales’ of engagement, depending on the targeted audience. Finally, the article will examine the security implications of Islamist environmentalism, including the possibility of an alliance between Islamists and militant environmentalists.     

科学发展观指导大学生思想政治教育质量提升研究

科学发展观不仅为大学生思想政治教育提出了新的理论指导,同时也为其提出了新的更高要求和新的思想方法。加强和改进大学生思想政治教育是事关中华民族前途命运的根本问题,要提升大学生的思想政治教育质量,必须坚持以科学发展观为指导,用科学发展观统领高校思想政治教育,理清工作思路,创新工作模式,促进大学生思想政治素质、科学文化素质和身体素质的全面发展。     

防空导弹网络化作战C4ISR系统体系结构研究

网络中心战是信息化战争中一种新的作战概念.按照网络中心战的概念,研究防空导弹网络化作战的C4ISR体系结构.提出了以火力单元的功能系统为基本单元,建立跟踪制导网、指挥控制网和拦截兵器网三层逻辑网结构,并定义各逻辑层的主要功能和基本组成.该结构对实现防空导弹网络中心战有指导意义.     

多传感器数据融合在舰艇防空中的应用

以舰艇防空为背景,对防空作战中目标指示环节和舰空导弹武器系统作战使用环节中多传感器数据融合的应用进行了分析。分析包括舰艇平台信息的收集、目标指示信息的转换、融合的预处理及分布式融合处理等过程。分析之后建立了数学模型,并进行了仿真。仿真结果表明,融合后目标指示的精度和导弹制导数据的精度有明显的改善,有利地保证了防空作战的顺利进行。