Damage functions and estimates of fratricide and collateral damage

There are multiple damage functions in the literature to estimate the probability that a single weapon detonation destroys a point target. This paper addresses differences in the tails of four of the more popular damage functions. These four cover the asymptotic tail behaviors of all monotonically decreasing damage functions with well‐behaved hazard functions. The differences in estimates of probability of kill are quite dramatic for large aim‐point offsets. This is particularly important when balancing the number of threats that can be engaged with the chances of fratricide and collateral damage. In general, analysts substituting one damage function for another may badly estimate kill probabilities in offset‐aiming, which could result in poor doctrine. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 306–321, 2003.     

缝宽对双光束干涉的影响

在光学课程中,对双光束干涉的讲解,都是假设缝的宽度无限狭窄。本文在考虑缝的实际宽度的情况下,从光场和光强两方面进行深入的研究。     

论火灾形成的认识论基础

立足减少火灾对人类的危害 ,从哲学的视角剖析火灾形成的认识论基础。主要从自然观、人类实践行为、人的消费观念及价值取向进行全面论述 ,揭示当代火灾形成的直接原因、社会因素和思想根源。     

坦克外部磁场的一种计算模型

将坦克的几何形状近似为一个空心长方体和一个空心旋转椭球体的组合,参考旋转椭球模型的计算结果,利用磁场叠加原理,通过解磁标势在直角坐标系中的拉普拉斯方程,建立了坦克外部磁场分布的计算模型,为坦克外部磁场的计算,提供了一种途径。     

The Clausewitzian fallacy of absolute war

Clausewitz was much preoccupied with the apparent contradiction between real and absolute war. Why did war in history so rarely exhibit the extremes of violence and energy implied in the pure concept of war? Clausewitz’s commentators have usually followed him in thinking that this was a genuine problem in need of a solution, but I want to question that view. I will argue that Clausewitz did not have a coherent philosophy of absolute war, and therefore the contradiction he posited between real and absolute war was equally meaningless – as, too, was his effort to resolve it by claiming that some real wars approached or even attained the absolute form of war. The real problem was not the opposition of real and absolute war, but the self-contradictory theory of absolute war.     

How might Democratisation Affect Military Professionalism in Africa? Reviewing the Literature

The search continues for methods to improve security for development in Sub-Saharan Africa. One of the important actors in this security arena is Sub-Saharan African governments’ armies. Much of their capability to meet security challenge depends on how militarily professional they are. The wave of democratic evolution in Africa since 1990 also affected military professionalism. This article reviews three models for assessing how democratisation might affect military professionalism in Sub-Saharan Africa, with special attention to post-conflict states. This should make it possible to decide which analytical methods are most appropriate to measure military professionalism in the particular circumstances of Sub-Saharan African post-conflict democratisation. Depending upon the particular nation-state in question, this decision on analytical methods may be useful for other Sub-Saharan states as well.     

某型运载火箭1/5动力学缩比模型设计

缩比模型试验是获取大型运载火箭动特性的一种有效途径,其中一项重要内容是动力学缩比模型设计。本文以某型运载火箭为原型对象,首先根据其结构组成分别推导各部件的相似关系;然后,利用横向刚度和质量相似系数保持一致性,联立形成了运载火箭横向动特性相似关系;同时,考虑实际加工制造条件,分析了横向刚度和质量相似系数的约束;最后,根据上述相似关系和相似系数约束设计了1/5缩比模型,并对该缩比模型的动特性相似进行了有限元数值计算验证。验证结果表明,设计所得1/5缩比模型在动特性方面与原型具有较高的相似性,相关方法能够有效应用于运载火箭的动力学缩比模型设计。     

基于累积前景理论的时间矩阵多属性综合评判模型

针对动态多属性方案排序优选决策问题,提出了一种基于累积前景理论的时间矩阵序列动态多属性综合评判系统模型。依据累积前景理论,将时间矩阵序列动态多属性决策转化为关于属性期望的益损时间矩阵序列动态决策,综合考虑各属性权重、各时间点的权重,计算各方案的最终综合前景值,并依据其大小对方案进行综合评判排序。最后给出了一个决策实例。     

基于灰关联分析和粗糙集的通信电台识别方法

通信侦察过程积累了大量电台通信记录,对这些数据进行分析、推理,可以识别电台的数量、装载平台等,为了提高识别正确率,提出了基于灰关联分析和粗糙集的通信电台识别方法。首先,依据粗糙集理论将信息表划分等价类,得到电台航迹;再根据灰关联分析计算雷达航迹和电台航迹的灰关联度,最后按照最大灰关联度原则进行通信电台关联。实验结果表明该方法适用范围更广,在多个平台的运动轨迹交叉且在交叉时刻各有电台通联、同一平台上的多个电台在不同时间通联这两种情况下,均能较好地对电台进行关联。     

基于不可信证据源与冲突重分配的证据合成方法

针对D-S证据理论在高冲突下失效的问题,在比较修正原始证据源和重新分配冲突两种方法的基础上,提出一种新的合成规则,新方法用可信度修正证据的同时,把全局冲突分为两部分,并依据"全局冲突在全局分配、局部冲突在局部分配"的原则对冲突进行细化分配。通过仿真分析,并与其他方法比较,新的合成方法能更好地融合冲突证据,收敛速度快,具有较强的抗干扰能力。