POTENTIAL PROLIFERATION POINTERS FROM THE PAST: Lessons from the British Nuclear Weapons Program, 1952–69

Becoming a nuclear weapon state and sustaining a militarily credible nuclear weapons capability is far from trivial, especially for medium powers. Such a capability is demonstrated by much more than firing a first test or acquiring significant quantities of fissile material; capability is indicated by factors including weaponization, delivery of weapons, reliability and effectiveness of weapons and their delivery systems, fissile material availability, and nuclear and non-nuclear testing. Files in the British National Archives shed considerable light on the problems faced by the nuclear weapon program of the United Kingdom from 1952 through the late 1960s. The question is whether this experience is unique or if it instead offers insights into the potential problems faced by, or facing, other medium or aspiring nuclear weapon states. The proliferation-related topics highlighted include: fissile material production, nuclear testing, the first weapon, weapon delivery rates, non-nuclear testing, delivery platform problems, and long-term maintenance and capability sustainability. Further research could provide clearer insights.     

Deferred verification: the role of new verification technologies and approaches

ABSTRACT

Researchers have recently proposed a new approach to nuclear-arms-control verification, dubbed “deferred verification.” The concept forgoes inspections at sensitive nuclear sites and of nuclear weapons or components in classified form. To implement this concept, a state first divides its nuclear program into a closed segment and an open segment. The total fissile-material inventory in the closed segment, which includes the weapon complex, is known and declared with very high accuracy. Essentially no inspections take place in the closed segment. In contrast, inspectors have access to the open segment, which includes in particular the civilian nuclear sector. The fissile-material inventory in the open segment is known with less accuracy, but uncertainties can be reduced over time using nuclear-archaeology methods. Deferred verification relies primarily on established safeguards techniques and avoids many unresolved verification challenges, such as the need for information barriers for warhead confirmation measurements. At the same time, deferred verification faces some unique challenges. Here, we explore some of these challenges and offer possible solutions; to do so, we examine possible noncompliance strategies in which a state would seek to withhold a higher-than-declared inventory.     

THE CHANGING MEANING OF SMALL ARMS IN NUER SOCIETY

The economic value, social status and symbolic meaning of small arms are particular and temporal in nature. This is demonstra ted through a historical account of the dynamics of cultural change and adaptation in Nuer society. Specifically, the article shows how attitudes towards small arms shif ted over time from a positive valuation of guns as prestigious objects, to ambivalence between the need for protection and the experience of increased local lawlessness and violence. More generally, it demonstrates how weapon-rela ted activities can only be fully understood when seen against a specific cultural background. Even if the display, use and circulation of weapons appear to carry cross-cultural references, typically as expressions of power and masculine identity, the meaning is always primarily local. Therefore, strategies to reduce the destructive impact of small arms through demand side programs, based on voluntary participation, can only be carried out successfully if built on an in-depth understanding of a particular cultural context.     

Evolutionary determinants of war

This paper considers evolutionarily stable decisions about whether to initiate violent conflict rather than accepting a peaceful sharing outcome. Focusing on small sets of players such as countries in a geographically confined area, we use the concept of evolutionary stability in finite populations. We find that players’ evolutionarily stable preferences widen the range of peaceful resource allocations that are rejected in favor of violent conflict, compared to the Nash equilibrium outcomes. Relative advantages in fighting strength are reflected in the equilibrium set of peaceful resource allocations.     

基于复杂网络理论的航材配送网络抗毁性分析

航材配送是航材保障工作的重要环节,科学地构建航材配送网络是提高航材保障效率的前提和基础。深入开展航材配送网络研究,对提高航材保障工作效益具有重要意义。针对航材配送网络节点繁多、线路交错的特点,分析了航材配送网络的复杂特性,构建了基于复杂网络理论的航材配送网络模型,设计了航材配送网络的拓扑特征参数,研究了航材配送网络的抗毁性。理论分析和实验结果表明,随机攻击时航材配送网络的抗毁性要大于选择性攻击,节点选择攻击时航材配送网络的抗毁性小于边选择攻击。     

基于组合赋权的火箭动力系统性能灰色关联评估

针对运载火箭动力系统的性能评估,采用灰色关联分析模型有效解决了数据缺乏问题,并且利用层次分析法与离差最大化法组合确定指标权重,避免了使用单一赋权方法导致的主观性或者客观性不足的缺陷。最后,通过对国内外5种类型运载火箭的动力系统性能进行评估排序,对比数据结果表明,采用该方法能够对运载火箭动力系统性能进行合理的评估与排序,具有一定的应用价值。     

舰船交流电力系统短路电流的改进算法及计算软件的编制

针对中国国家军用标准方法（ＧＪＢ－１７３）在计算某型舰船电力系统短路电流时误差较大的情况,提出了一种新的具有较高计算精度的短路电流计算方法——改进算法．提供了一套用ＶｉｓｕａｌＢａｓｉｃ５．０编制的短路电流计算软件,该软件具有良好的人机对话能力和友好的界面,使用方便,且有较强的通用性     

基于突防任务的军机生存能力幂指数评估方法

军机生存能力是军机作战效能的重要指标,为定量化研究影响军机生存能力的相关因素,采用幂指数法与层次分析法相结合的方法构建军机生存能力评估模型,为解决军机生存能力指数评估问题提供了一种新的方法。     

潜艇核事故应急评价模式研究

评价模式是核事故应急评价系统的核心．在理论分析的基础上,建立了适合基地特点的潜艇核事故应急评价模式及参数,并通过假想事故对所建立的评价模式进行了校核．结果表明,该模式具有良好的可靠性和可行性,适合基地的特点,满足核潜艇核事故应急评价的要求．根据所建模式,还编制了一套实用、可靠、灵活、方便的应用软件．     

PSA 技术在船舶核动力装置 RCMA 中的应用

从重要功能产品的确定、维修工作类型的选择和维修工作间隔期的确定３个方面出发,说明了概率安全评价（ＰＳＡ）技术在船舶核动力装置以可靠性为中心的维修分析（ＲＣＭＡ）中的应用．