航天侦察情报保障能力需求产生系统设计

开发航天侦察情报能力需求产生系统是实现需求论证工程化的重要环节,是提高装备需求论证质量与效率的有效手段。通过对航天侦察情报能力需求系统特点和功能需求进行分析,明确了系统设计框架;设计了软件系统功能结构和数据库模型,为航天侦察情报保障能力需求产生提供了技术支撑。     

基于支持向量机的威胁判断模型

目标威胁判断是防空作战中一项重要内容,在建立目标威胁模型时,首先要挑选特征参数,分析了影响威胁度的若干因素.这里采用Rough理论中知识约简方法选择目标的特征参数;支持向量机是一类新型机器学习方法,由于其出色的学习能力,该技术已成为当前国际机器学习界的研究热点,利用支持向量机建立了威胁判断模型,给出了实例和解决此问题的支持向量机源程序.通过实例与神经网络法的结果进行了比较,结果表明支持向量机比较精确和简单.     

空间力量信息支援能力量化分析

研究空间力量的信息支援能力,对于搞好航天装备体系建设的顶层设计、规划论证以及作战运用,具有重要的现实意义和军事效益.对空间力量与空间信息支援作战、空间力量的作战任务、空间力量的信息支援能力等问题进行了定性分析.在对传统ADC方法进行合理改进的基础上,基于环境影响因子、各性能指标的权重以及各性能指标的评价函数,提出了一种全过程评估能力指标的新思路、新方法,建立了空间力量信息支援能力评估模型,为量化分析空间力量信息支援能力提供了一定的依据.     

基于模糊支持向量机的发动机故障诊断方法

发动机的故障样本少,用神经网络进行故障类别的学习和分类往往会出现过学习、泛化能力不高以及局部极小点等问题。针对这一缺陷,将基于小样本理论的支持向量机学习方法应用到发动机的故障诊断中。同时讨论了3种多故障分类器的优缺点,并用引入模糊隶属函数的方法解决了“一对多”方法在构建多故障分类器时存在的分类盲区,提高了分类器的分类精度。用该方法对发动机常见的8种状态模式的样本进行训练和识别,训练样本和测试样本都有较好的识别率。     

一体化联合作战装备保障训练内容体系创新研究

从剖析一体化联合作战的基本特点及其装备保障需求入手,阐明了装备保障训练内容体系设计的理论依据和基本原则;结合部队装备保障训练实际,提出了一种基于任务需求、围绕保障活动、面向一体化过程的设计方法,并运用此方法,构建了装备保障训练内容体系结构模型及框架,以期为装备保障训练转型提供理论借鉴。     

基于供应链的军事物资保障系统研究

高技术条件下的局部战争,物资保障任务繁重,军事物流的地位日益突出。现代物流打破了储存、运输的传统职能,充分运用了系统、集成的思想,为进一步提高军队的物资保障能力,从供应链的角度,应用现代物流理论,分析了供应链理念对军事物资保障系统的改进和推动作用,指出了当前军事物资保障系统存在的问题,在此基础上,对如何整合优化军事物资保障系统的供应链,进行了分析和探讨。对如何应用供应链理念,提高军事物资保障效率,确保适时、适地、适量可靠保障,提供了充分的理论依据。     

Lost in transition: the South African military and counterinsurgency

Washington's growing reliance upon international private security companies (PSCs) will lead to these firms becoming prominent vehicles in the prosecution of the counterinsurgency in Iraq. This shift, however, risks labeling PSCs as mercenaries and presents considerable challenges regarding the control of non-state violence. Moreover, tradeoffs exist regarding the different nationalities of PSC personnel. Utilization of personnel from the developed world risks compromising the capabilities of Special Operations Forces. Additionally, shifts in casualty recognition amongst US policymakers and the media suggest that the private option is becoming politically salient and thus less useful. Many developing world states are increasingly concerned about how the global outsourcing of security sector expertise risks their stability and ability to execute coherent policy. Finally, the employment of Iraqis in PSCs sends mixed messages to the Iraqi populace about the need for and the effectiveness of a cohesive and responsible indigenous security sector.

Frankly, I'd like to see the government get out of war altogether and leave the whole feud to private industry.

[Catch-22 – Major Milo Minderbinder]     

TERRORISM AND DETERRENCE POLICY WITH TRANSNATIONAL SUPPORT 1

This study provides an explanation of terrorism by examining interactions between the terrorist group with a minority as a potential pool of recruits and the government supported by a majority. A hawkish deterrence policy makes it more risky for terrorists to launch attacks, but heightens the anti‐government feeling of the terrorist group. In addition, the payoff for the government depends not only on the payoff loss associated with the level of terrorism, but also on the political payoff from the action itself of adopting a hawk policy due to its politicians’ vested interests. We first show that whether the deterrence policy should be ‘hawk to ‘dove is closely dependent on the relationships among the risk associated with terrorism, the anti‐government feeling of the terrorist group, and the political payoff for the government. This study then introduces transnational support enhancing the capability of a terrorist group to intensify its activity and shows that the emergence of transnational support may cause the government to reform its deterrence policy from ‘dove’ toward ‘hawk,’ with terrorism intensified in the society.     

美军“力量提供者”系统与野营装备建设

以美军“力量提供者”系统为研究对象,介绍其功能参数和模块组成以及部署流程,并对其先进性和不足之处进行综合评价。对照现有野营装备建设现状,提出应该加强野营装备研究、增强战略投送能力、建立专业保障力量等思考,以提高未来信息化联合作战中野营装备建设水平。     

综合保障理论之海军航空装备保障发展

现役的航空装备大部分以可靠性为中心来开展设计和维修保障工作,普遍存在装备可用性低、装备预防性维修周期不合理、装备保障成本高等问题,影响了装备保障效能的提升。针对该问题,论文梳理了综合保障理论产生和发展的意义,分析了当前海军航空装备综合保障的现状,针对性提出了几点发展建议和措施,对于开展综合保障工作有积极的推动意义,对现役装备的预防性维修周期规划、可靠性增长、可用性提高、降低保障成本有重要意义。