Conflict and fiscal capacity

We examine the role of war in retarding state fiscal capacity in developing countries, measured by tax revenue ratios to GDP. We build a simple theoretical model of a factionalized state, where patronage substitutes for common interest public goods, along with violent contestation over a rent or prize. Our dynamic panel empirical analysis applied to 79 developing countries, during 1980–2010, indicates that war, especially civil war, retards fiscal capacity, along with imperfect democracy, political repression, poor governance, and dependence on oil and macroeconomic mismanagement. High intensity conflict is particularly destructive of state capacity. In countries experiencing low intensity wars, other institutional factors may matter more than war. The diminution of fiscal capacity due to war appears less pronounced after the end of the cold war.     

海军兵棋演习系统研究

兵棋演习系统是我军未来开展模拟训练的重要手段,针对国内外对兵棋推演系统现状及技术发展趋势进行研究,提出海军兵棋演习系统的发展方向和设计方法,并结合海军兵棋推演的研究内容重点,给出作战规则建模、指挥关系建模等主要关键技术的解决方法,为我国海军未来兵棋推演系统设计、研究和发展提供技术支撑。     

事故树分析法在汽车加油站火险评估中的应用

利用事故树分析法剖析目前汽车加油站存在的诸种火灾原因 ,并排出火因重要度顺序 ,判明主次因素 ,进而提出有效的火灾预防措施。     

The politics of renewed quest for a Biafra Republic in Nigeria

The quest for a Biafran Republic by the Igbo ethnic group has become a recurring demand in Nigeria since the late 1960s. The agitation has been premised on claims of marginalisation and exclusion of the Igbo people in the Nigerian body politic. In spite of the consistency of the agitation through various Administrations, there was a noticeable lull in such demands during the time of President Goodluck Jonathan, only to assume a frightening proportion since the advent of the Administration of President Muhammadu Buhari. This article locates the factors in the outcomes of the 2015 general elections: the question of inclusion and representation; the unfinished nature of the Nigerian civil war; economic challenges, miscalculation both on the part of the Igbo people and indiscretion in the initial appointments made by President Muhammadu Buhari. The article recommends political restructuring of Nigeria as one of the ways to address secessionist tendencies.     

Attacking the Atom: Does Bombing Nuclear Facilities Affect Proliferation?

Abstract

What are the consequences of military strikes against nuclear facilities? In particular, do they ‘work’ by delaying the target states ability to build the bomb? This article addresses these questions by conducting an analysis of 16 attacks against nuclear facilities from 1942 to 2007. We analyze strikes that occurred during peacetime and raids that took place in the context of an ongoing interstate war. The findings indicate that strikes are neither as uniformly fruitless as the skeptics would suggest, nor as productive as advocates have claimed. There is evidence that the peacetime attacks delayed the target's nuclear program, although the size of this effect is rather modest. The wartime cases were less successful, as attacks often missed their targets either due to operational failure or limited intelligence on the location of critical targets. In our concluding section we show that many of the conditions that were conducive to past success are not present in the contemporary Iran case. Overall, our findings reveal an interesting paradox. The historical cases that have successfully delayed proliferation are those when the attacking state struck well before a nuclear threat was imminent. Yet, this also happens to be when strikes are the least legitimate under international law, meaning that attacking under these conditions is most likely to elicit international censure.     

WHAT ARE THE ODDS?

Nuclear optimists and pessimists disagree on whether the odds of nuclear war are low or high. This viewpoint assesses the odds of nuclear war over the past sixty-six years, exploring three pathways to nuclear war: an international crisis leading directly to nuclear war, an accident or misperception leading to nuclear escalation or nuclear retaliation against an imaginary attack, and a general conventional war leading to nuclear war. The assessment is based on the application of Bayes's theorem and other statistical reasoning and finds that the expected probability of nuclear war during this historical period was greater than 50 percent. This level of risk is unacceptably high. It is therefore urgent that effective measures be taken to substantially reduce the risk of nuclear war.     

油改气汽车火灾原因分析与防范措施

介绍了“油改气”汽车的概念及分类,从改装工艺、关键零部件质量、监督验审、燃气质量等几个方面详细分析了“油改气”汽车的火灾原因,重点就控制燃气泄漏,提出了完善法规体系、严格监督、驾驶人员自觉履行各项安全规程、提高燃气质量等火灾防范措施。     

富氧区域火灾危险性分析及其防范

富氧区域具有极大的火灾危险性,在富氧状态下不仅能使通常不燃或难燃的物品变得易燃,而且还会扩大可燃物的燃烧范围,加快可燃物的燃烧速度。因此,必须充分认识富氧区域的火灾危险性,严格富氧区域操作的安全防范措施,确保富氧区域操作安全。     

装备预防性维修的维修级别逻辑决策分析方法

针对预防性维修的维修级别没有规范、统一的分析与确定方法的问题,研究了预防性维修的维修级别逻辑决策分析方法。明确了预防性维修的维修级别决策分析的对象是预防性维修工作类型,预防性维修主要有定时维修和状态维修,定时维修分为定时拆修和定时报废2种维修工作类型,状态维修分为状态信息检测、状态识别、状态预测、维修决策、故障诊断和维修实施等维修工作类型。根据维修间隔期、维修能力评估、其它非经济性因素以及经济性分析,分别建立了定时维修和状态维修的维修级别逻辑决策模型。