面向作战任务的最小风险传感器调度方法

基于风险理论提出一种面向不同目标探测任务的传感器调度方法。将主动传感器辐射被截获风险和目标探测风险结合起来,建立一般目标探测框架下的传感器最小风险调度模型。分目标跟踪、目标识别和目标威胁等级评估三种情况将传感器最小风险调度模型具体化,给出不同情况下目标探测风险值的计算方法。针对模型的求解提出一种基于混沌思想、反向学习和双向轮盘赌的改进人工蜂群算法。通过仿真实验证明了模型的可行性和算法的有效性。     

Application of Markov renewal theory and semi-Markov decision processes in maintenance modeling and optimization of multi-unit systems

In this paper, a condition-based maintenance model for a multi-unit production system is proposed and analyzed using Markov renewal theory. The units of the system are subject to gradual deterioration, and the gradual deterioration process of each unit is described by a three-state continuous time homogeneous Markov chain with two working states and a failure state. The production rate of the system is influenced by the deterioration process and the demand is constant. The states of the units are observable through regular inspections and the decision to perform maintenance depends on the number of units in each state. The objective is to obtain the steady-state characteristics and the formula for the long-run average cost for the controlled system. The optimal policy is obtained using a dynamic programming algorithm. The result is validated using a semi-Markov decision process formulation and the policy iteration algorithm. Moreover, an analytical expression is obtained for the calculation of the mean time to initiate maintenance using the first passage time theory.     

Integrating decisions with advance supply information in an assemble-to-order system

We study a periodic-review assemble-to-order (ATO) system with multiple components and multiple products, in which the inventory replenishment for each component follows an independent base-stock policy and stochastic product demands are satisfied according to a First-Come-First-Served rule. We assume that the replenishment for various component suffers from lead time uncertainty. However, the decision maker has the so-called advance supply information (ASI) associated with the lead times and thus can take advantage of the information for system optimization. We propose a multistage stochastic integer program that incorporates ASI to address the joint optimization of inventory replenishment and component allocation. The optimal base-stock policy for the inventory replenishment is determined using the sample average approximation algorithm. Also, we provide a modified order-based component allocation (MOBCA) heuristic for the component allocation. We additionally consider a special case of the variable lead times where the resulting two-stage stochastic programming model can be characterized as a single-scenario case of the proposed multistage model. We carry out extensive computational studies to quantify the benefits of integrating ASI into joint optimization and to explore the possibility of employing the two-stage model as a relatively efficient approximation scheme for the multistage model.     

On efficient algorithms for finding efficient salvo policies

We consider the salvo policy problem, in which there are k moments, called salvos, at which we can fire multiple missiles simultaneously at an incoming object. Each salvo is characterized by a probability p_i: the hit probability of a single missile. After each salvo, we can assess whether the incoming object is still active. If it is, we fire the missiles assigned to the next salvo. In the salvo policy problem, the goal is to assign at most n missiles to salvos in order to minimize the expected number of missiles used. We consider three problem versions. In Gould's version, we have to assign all n missiles to salvos. In the Big Bomb version, a cost of B is incurred when all salvo's are unsuccessful. Finally, we consider the Quota version in which the kill probability should exceed some quota Q. We discuss the computational complexity and the approximability of these problem versions. In particular, we show that Gould's version and the Big Bomb version admit pseudopolynomial time exact algorithms and fully polynomial time approximation schemes. We also present an iterative approximation algorithm for the Quota version, and show that a related problem is NP-complete.     

Bringing Military Conduct out of the Shadow of Law: Towards a Holistic Understanding of Rules of Engagement

In this article, I outline a holistic approach to the military concept of “Rules of Engagement” (ROE), which complements the legal aspects of ROE with considerations of operational and political requirements for the use of military force. Drawing upon two illustrative cases from the US military experience with the use of ROE, I demonstrate that ROE for any particular military operation should be formulated to balance optimally, if not harmonize fully, the legal, operational and political concerns related to the use of force. In this task, political decision-makers and military practitioners alike are confronted with unavoidable and real-life dilemmas. How these dilemmas are handled has significant implications for how legal requirements concerning accountability and concerns for civilian lives in military combat can be preserved through ROE.     

作战数据工程建设与发展

战争形态正加速向信息化战争演变,数字化作战成为主要形式,作战数据以前所未有的深度广度进入战争全脉络,成为作战的核心,影响着战争进程甚至决定成败。习主席高度重视作战数据建设,多次指出我军数据积累严重不足是军事斗争准备的短板弱项。因此,建设完善配套的作战数据库和形成战时高效的作战数据保障能力,对获取作战信息优势、提升指挥控制能力至关重要,对于提高我军基于网络信息体系的联合作战能力具有重要的支撑作用。     

国防领域技术预警流程研究

技术预警是对技术突破和由此引起的军事、政治、经济和社会危机的预测,是从国家安全的根本利益出发,以保持己方军事优势、防止敌人"技术突袭"为宗旨的技术发展预测。研究回顾了国内外技术预警研究历程,从前期准备、预警清单、技术调查、分析评估等四个主要环节,全面分析国防领域技术预警的具体流程,为国防领域技术预警系统的构建与应用提供支撑。     

大力弘扬改革创新时代精神 加快建设世界一流高等教育院校

习主席在庆祝改革开放40周年大会上的重要讲话,是新时代改革开放再出发的宣言书和动员令。学习贯彻习主席重要讲话精神,关键要全面推进学校深化改革创新,深刻认清弘扬改革创新精神对于建设世界一流高等教育院校的重大意义,牢牢扭住全面深化改革创新的主攻方向,科学处理深化改革创新的重大关系,既以顽强的战略定力坚定不移深化改革,又运用科学的工作方法积极稳妥地推进改革。     

强爆轰驱动超高速碎片发射装置设计因素分析

为了得到发射装置设计因素和超高速碎片性能间的关系,考虑了药型罩的材料、炸药种类、装药长径比、药型罩的锥角、药型罩的厚度、药型罩顶部靠近装药侧的曲率半径等设计因素,采用AUTODYNTM,结合正交试验,对超高速碎片的发射过程进行数值模拟。结果表明,3种发射装置结构分别可以提供质量为1. 533 g的紫铜碎片、速度为11. 649 km/s的铝碎片、动能为85. 6 k J的铝碎片; 2种发射装置结构均可以提供质量大于1 g、速度高于11 km/s的密实结构圆柱状碎片。验证了仿真方法的可信性,对影响碎片性能的设计因素进行了分析、排序,并得到了这些设计因素与碎片质量、速度、动能的关系。     

Competitive Statehood in Libya: Governing Differently a Specific Setting or Deconstructing its Weak Sovereign State with a Fateful Drift Toward Chaos?

Abstract

Libya in 2011 witnessed a real process of political change, though different from all the policy-oriented jargon equating transition with a teleological transition to democracy. Due to the resilience of the Qadhafi regime in power and with the essential role of NATO intervention, the process was eased out by a eight-month civil war. Governance in post-Qadhafi Libya was not done through the rebuilding of centralized authorities. But it took the specific form of the emergence of multiple non-state actors embedded in local dynamics and then connected with weakened central authorities that had access to the huge Libyan resources. That raised complex questions about the quality of this mode of governance, especially at a time of pressing problems for Libya and its neighbors, whether direct ones (Tunisia, Egypt, Mali) or farther countries across the Mediterranean sea: terrorism with the expansion of Da’esh into the country and flows of refugees crossing Libya’s uncontrolled borders and flowing into Italy and then Europe by thousands.