Assessing the value of demand sharing in supply chains

We consider the problem of assessing the value of demand sharing in a multistage supply chain in which the retailer observes stationary autoregressive moving average demand with Gaussian white noise (shocks). Similar to previous research, we assume each supply chain player constructs its best linear forecast of the leadtime demand and uses it to determine the order quantity via a periodic review myopic order‐up‐to policy. We demonstrate how a typical supply chain player can determine the extent of its available information in the presence of demand sharing by studying the properties of the moving average polynomials of adjacent supply chain players. The retailer's demand is driven by the random shocks appearing in the autoregressive moving average representation for its demand. Under the assumptions we will make in this article, to the retailer, knowing the shock information is equivalent to knowing the demand process (assuming that the model parameters are also known). Thus (in the event of sharing) the retailer's demand sequence and shock sequence would contain the same information to the retailer's supplier. We will show that, once we consider the dynamics of demand propagation further up the chain, it may be that a player's demand and shock sequences will contain different levels of information for an upstream player. Hence, we study how a player can determine its available information under demand sharing, and use this information to forecast leadtime demand. We characterize the value of demand sharing for a typical supply chain player. Furthermore, we show conditions under which (i) it is equivalent to no sharing, (ii) it is equivalent to full information shock sharing, and (iii) it is intermediate in value to the two previously described arrangements. Although it follows from existing literature that demand sharing is equivalent to full information shock sharing between a retailer and supplier, we demonstrate and characterize when this result does not generalize to upstream supply chain players. We then show that demand propagates through a supply chain where any player may share nothing, its demand, or its full information shocks (FIS) with an adjacent upstream player as quasi‐ARMA in—quasi‐ARMA out. We also provide a convenient form for the propagation of demand in a supply chain that will lend itself to future research applications. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 515–531, 2014     

试论信息系统化对消防建设的促进

信息化是现代社会经济发展的主要技术力量,也是消防部队发展壮大的有效途径。消防部门要以信息化科技手段规范队伍管理,完善监督程序,提高执法服务水平和部队战斗力,推动消防工作和部队建设。对目前消防部队投入使用或在建的信息化项目进行了分析、总结和归类,提出了＂系统化＂的构想和框架。     

从故障特征群中快速确定故障点的方法

工程设备的结构日趋复杂,使故障诊断的难度不断增大。本文在最大故障信息量诊断的基础上提出了最大故障信息增量判断准则,可从故障特征群中一次找出最可能的故障点,简化了诊断过程,提高了诊断速度。     

军事信息系统中台建设

随着国防信息化建设的快速推进,大量军事信息系统被开发,在开发过程中产生了诸如数据不统一、不标准以及服务重复建设等问题,既浪费了大量的建设和维护资源,也导致技术难以得到沉淀,数据不能被充分利用.中台在大型企业的成功应用,包括在电子政务发展中的规划,以及美军的全球信息栅格与军事云建设,都在着力解决类似问题.本文认为,军事信...     

The Russian hybrid warfare strategy – neither Russian nor strategy

Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its initial actions in eastern Ukraine in 2014, the term hybrid warfare has received much public attention. Many have argued that the Russian actions we saw in Ukraine were part of a completely new strategy while others have suggested that there was nothing new in Russia’s actions. This article takes a critical look at these claims. Through the assessment of the history of the term hybrid warfare and a rigorous analysis of the so-called Gerasimov doctrine, this study finds that the Russian hybrid warfare strategy is rather a western myth than a formal comprehensive Russian strategic concept. Additionally, through the assessment of the Russian use of information operations and the way she has utilised the cyberspace in several recent conflicts, the study finds that against all claims Russia did not make these areas its main battlefield, but rather has been using them in support of its traditional concepts.     

故障类别的模糊聚类分析

本文通过故障状态-特征的模糊聚类分析,按故障间的相似性对故障进行分类,然后按类别实施故障诊断,可在最少监测点的条件下,获得最多的设备运行故障信息。从而简化故障诊断过程,提高诊断速度和精度。     

态势生成中一种非线性运动模型的建立

探讨了在信息融合仿真试验床的态势生成部分,建立飞行实体运动模型的方法;通过保留运动学方程,简化动力学方程的方法,给出了一种常见的机动飞行方式(俯冲爬升类运动)的运动模型的计算公式;并对这种运动模型的非线性和机动性进行了分析和讨论;通过仿真,比较了几种机动目标跟踪算法对该运动模型的跟踪效果,验证了该方法的有效性。     

传感器组网的关键技术

传感器组网是协同作战的关键技术,从作战的动态过程角度看,传感器组网是以特定战术任务为目标,在通信技术和计算机技术支持下的战术决策。从完成特定战术任务的能力角度看,传感器管理技术、通信技术、信息融合技术以及计算机技术是影响传感器网络性能的关键因素。     

区域地面防空网络化作战传感器系统

区域防空需要三种信息:预警信息、战术指挥信息和制导控制信息,因此应相应的建立三层信息网络系统:联合规划网络、联合数据网络及联合跟踪网络来满足网络化防空作战的需要。对多传感器信息融合的作用进行了分析,并提出了一种适应地面防空网络化作战需要的传感器系统信息融合体系结构。     

雷达情报串口传输质量检测与评估

在雷达情报处理系统中,大量采用串口通信方式传输雷达情报。雷达情报串口传输质量是雷达情报处理系统中需要考虑的问题。针对现状,探讨了三种检测和评估串口传输质量的方法即主动方式、被动方式和主被动结合方式,主被动结合检测与评估方法更适合应用于雷达情报处理系统。该方法结合物理层、数据链路层、报文层信息,从误码率、误帧/组率和错报率的角度进行分析,利用串口协议通信服务设备和报文产生器对雷达情报串口传输质量进行检测与评估,已成功应用于实际工程中,收到了较好的效果。