Analysis of a machine repair problem with an unreliable server and phase type repairs and services

In this paper we study a machine repair problem in which a single unreliable server maintains N identical machines. The breakdown times of the machines are assumed to follow an exponential distribution. The server is subject to failure and the failure times are exponentially distributed. The repair times of the machine and the service times of the repairman are assumed to be of phase type. Using matrix‐analytic methods, we perform steady state analysis of this model. The time spent by a failed machine in service and the total time in the repair facility are shown to be of phase type. Several performance measures are evaluated. An optimization problem to determine the number of machines to be assigned to the server that will maximize the expected total profit per unit time is discussed. An illustrative numerical example is presented. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 462–480, 2003     

机动作战路线选择辅助决策系统模型研究

为了更好地评价机动作战路线的优劣,运用模糊数学的方法,结合机动路线选择的特点,建立了机动路线选择的指标体系,采用层次分析法(AHP)对指标体系的各个因素的权重进行了确定,并在模型的基础上对机动路线选择辅助决策系统的软件设计进行了构思。利用辅助决策软件对机动作战路线选择,快捷方便,特别是能够在多条路线中选取最优,实现了由定性分析转入定量分析的轨道,有助于提高指挥决策的科学性和客观性。     

尾流自导鱼雷攻击决策的需求与方法研究

针对尾流自导鱼雷制导方式的特殊性,从潜艇鱼雷攻击的一般过程和决策内容入手,依据尾流自导鱼雷检测和跟踪目标的特殊要求,分析了其不同于以往鱼雷的决策需求,提出了为提高攻击效果需要重点研究和解决的几方面问题,对完善解决尾流自导鱼雷的攻击使用问题有一定的参考价值。     

进度风险的随机网络建模与仿真分析

为研究装备研制工程进度的风险分布特征,建立了包含正态分布、β分布、三角分布的随机网络进度风险分析模型,通过蒙特卡罗法仿真获得工程项目的进度估计及其统计分布特性,从而获得工程总工期的风险,并结合实例进行了分析.     

关于小高炮对空连发射击精度指标与命中概率的探讨

就小高炮连发射击所给出脱靶量的两种战技指标进行了分析。并给出了连发射击命中概率的计算方法,且建立了预测模型。计算结果表明,建模与思想对对空射击有一定的参考价值。     

基于观测值和真值计算的概率差异分析

作战效能与攻击决策通常都用概率描述一些不确定问题,然而概率有主观与客观之分,为了说明其不同,以一个假想的直进射击问题为例,只考虑目标运动速率误差,对已知真值或观测值所面对的不确定问题的实质进行了讨论。结论表明,当涉及射击成功概率这些问题时,对其实质与作用有必要给出清楚的说明。只知观测值所计算的概率是主观的,可用于决策信念的支持,基于主观概率进行决策,其精确性十分依赖于所使用的关于观测量真值先验知识的精确性。     

基于NTP协议的一种校时实现及相关算法

提出一种基于NTP协议的系统校时实现方法及相关算法,将该算法用于大型电子信息系统中,以外部精确时间源和系统中若干台稳定主机构造NTP服务器群,并用NTP服务器群对系统中其它所有网络主机进行精确校时,得到了毫秒级的校时精度。     

反潜机采用阿基米德螺旋线搜潜问题研究

反潜机是重要的反潜力量,根据反潜机搜潜情况,建立了反潜飞机采用阿基米德螺旋线样式搜潜的数学模型和目标运动模型,讨论了螺旋线采用的三种轨迹间隔,通过仿真验证,确立了反潜机搜潜最优轨迹间隔,以达到提高发现目标潜艇概率、优化反潜效能的目的,为反潜飞机采用阿基米德巡逻线搜潜样式搜潜时提供战术参考。     

Terrorism research: should we focus on the opponent or on our own people?

In terrorism research, three different sources of information and data exist: the terrorists and their environment; the incidents; and the population. This article discusses the strengths and weaknesses of research that is concerned with, or relies on, any of the mentioned sources. An in-depth understanding of the methodological issues that come with these sources is important to correctly interpret results from scientific studies. It is highlighted how the different scientific approaches add to a holistic view of terrorism as a phenomenon. Furthermore, the double-edged sword of information in the field of terrorism is discussed. From these deliberations, guidance concerning the future work of both scholars and decision-makers can be deducted.     

威布尔分布的战术导弹可靠性试验信息融合方法

针对战术导弹可靠性试验小子样问题,提出了基于威布尔分布,利用小概率原理,针对不同试验环境下试验数据的融合方法。该方法扩大了战术导弹可靠性试验的统计子样,提高了可靠性评定的可信度。