Approximations and empirics for stochastic war equations

The article develops a theorem which shows that the Lanchester linear war equations are not in general equal to the Kolmogorov linear war equations. The latter are time‐consuming to solve, and speed is important when a large number of simulations must be run to examine a large parameter space. Run times are provided, where time is a scarce factor in warfare. Four time efficient approximations are presented in the form of ordinary differential equations for the expected sizes and variances of each group, and the covariance, accounting for reinforcement and withdrawal of forces. The approximations are compared with “exact” Monte Carlo simulations and empirics from the WWII Ardennes campaign. The band spanned out by plus versus minus the incremented standard deviations captures some of the scatter in the empirics, but not all. With stochastically varying combat effectiveness coefficients, a substantial part of the scatter in the empirics is contained. The model is used to forecast possible futures. The implications of increasing the combat effectiveness coefficient governing the size of the Allied force, and injecting reinforcement to the German force during the Campaign, are evaluated, with variance assessments. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

Predictability of operational processes over finite horizon

Operational processes are usually studied in terms of stochastic processes. The main information measure used for predictability of stochastic processes is the entropy rate, which is asymptotic conditional entropy, thus not suitable for application over a finite horizon. We use the conditional entropy to study the predictability of stochastic processes over the finite horizon. It is well‐known that the conditional entropies of stationary processes decrease as the processes evolve, implying that, on average, their pasts become more informative about prediction of their future outcomes. Some important operational processes such as martingale, models for maintenance policies, nonhomogeneous Poisson, and mixed Poisson processes are nonstationary. We show that as a nonstationary process evolves, it may provide more information or less information about the future state of the system. We develop results for comparing the predictability of stochastic processes. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

发射用活塞式制动过程与制动环技术研究

应用非线性接触和碰撞问题的有限元理论,通过Autodyn软件对某缓冲装置瞬态制动过程进行数值仿真计算,得到该缓冲装置各构件的速度、位移、等效应力等物理量,通过优化得到缓冲装置的结构形式.仿真计算表明该装置在原理上是合理可行的,在技术上是可实现的,可为缓冲装置的结构设计提供可靠的参考数据.     

修正的交互加速度补偿机动目标跟踪算法

为了提高交互加速度补偿算法(IAC)的滤波精度,通过引入一个改进因子自适应地调整过程噪声协方差,给出了一种新的算法.在给定的初始条件下,通过蒙特卡罗仿真,将修正的IAC算法与IAC算法进行比较,结果表明修正的交互加速度补偿算法在目标发生机动时具有更好的跟踪性能.     

燃气流量可调固体火箭冲压发动机飞行性能分析

在建立燃气流量可调固体火箭冲压发动机工作过程仿真模型的基础上,对燃气流量调节过程中发动机飞行性能进行分析.结果表明,在低飞行高度或高飞行马赫数时,发动机有较宽的推力调节范围;随着飞行高度降低或飞行马赫数增加,发动机推力系数降低;随着燃气发生器喷喉面积变小,发动机推力和推力系数增加.     

基于作战效能的武器装备可靠性指标评估方法

装备可靠性的评估是装备管理使用中面临的重要课题.在总结前人的研究基础上,提出了一种基于武器装备作战效能的可靠性评估方法:建立非线性指标聚合的武器效能指标体系,通过主客观评分效果对底层指标进行打分,经过非线性指标聚合等手段获取装备效能的归一化评估指数,通过多次评估获取装备效能评估指数数据集,以此为基础对装备的可靠性进行评估.最后给出了评估仿真实例,实验结果表明所提方法的有效性、可行性.     

数字化部队装备维修保障业务流程再造研究

将业务流程再造的思想应用到数字化部队装备保障中,分析数字化部队装备保障业务流程再造的基础,阐述了再造过程中信息技术的运用要求,提出了再造的步骤,最后通过对现有装备修理业务流程的分析,对数字化部队修理业务流程进行了再造的设计构想。     

2-一致光滑Banach空间中k-严格伪压缩半群公共不动点的隐格式迭代算法

对于Banach空间中女一严格伪压缩半群的公共不动点给出了隐格式迭代算法,证明了一个强收敛定理,推广并扩展了相关结论。     

基于响应平面法的压力容器可靠性评定

针对压力容器制造、使用过程中各种参数的不确定性,提出了一种基于响应平面的随机分析方法.根据某压力容器的结构特点,确定性有限元分析采用了接触有限元,结合中心组合抽样设计构建了容器最大应力的响应平面,以此为基础对压力容器应力分布进行了随机分析.可靠性分析中引入应力—强度干涉模型,并分别对容器壁面和接管处进行了可靠性评定.实...