军品能力建设项目后的一种评价方法

由于军品的特殊性,其后评价标准与其他民品项目有所不同,根据军品技改项目的特点结合一般项目后评价内容,确定了军品技改项目后评价指标体系,共分为项目目标评价、项目实施管理评价、项目生产运营评价、项目生产力评价、项目经营效益评价、项目影响评价和项目持续性评价等7部分25个指标小项,并采用层次灰色法建立了军品技改项目后评价模型,为客观科学地进行军品技改项目的后评价提供了依据.     

基于微分对策理论的信息战模型

基于兰彻斯特作战理论,提出了一个新的微分对策模型来研究在交战双方均有信息战系统协助作战的条件下的最优火力分配策略。又运用微分对策理论对该模型进行分析和求解,并对所得到的结论作出符合战术意义的解释。     

相依目标群状态转移概率矩阵的特性及其应用

本文对相依目标群的状态转移概率矩阵的性质进行了深入的分析,得到了若干重要结论,并在此基础上讨论了相依目标群系统的火力分配模型     

Models for production planning under power interruptions

We present a robust optimization model for production planning under the assumption that electricity supply is subject to uncertain interruptions caused by participation in interruptible load contracts (ILCs). The objective is to minimize the cost of electricity used for production while providing a robust production plan which ensures demand satisfaction under all possible interruption scenarios. The combinatorial size of the set of interruption scenarios makes this a challenging problem. Furthermore, we assume that no probabilistic information is known about the supply uncertainty: we only use the information given in the ILC to identify an uncertainty set that captures the possible scenarios. We construct a general robust framework to handle this uncertainty and present a heuristic to compute a good feasible solution of the robust model. We provide computational experiments on a real‐world example and compare the performance of an exact solver applied to the robust model with that of the heuristic procedure. Finally, we include the operational impact of interruptions such as “recovery modes” in the definition of the uncertainty set. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

The incentive effect of acceptance sampling plans in a supply chain with endogenous product quality

This article studies a firm that procures a product from a supplier. The quality of each product unit is measured by a continuous variable that follows a normal distribution and is correlated within a batch. The firm conducts an inspection and pays the supplier only if the product batch passes the inspection. The inspection not only serves the purpose of preventing a bad batch from reaching customers but also offers the supplier an incentive to improve product quality. The firm determines the acceptance sampling plan, and the supplier determines the quality effort level in either a simultaneous game or a Stackelberg leadership game, in which both parties share inspection cost and recall loss caused by low product quality. In the simultaneous game, we identify the Nash equilibrium form, provide sufficient conditions that guarantee the existence of a pure strategy Nash equilibrium, and find parameter settings under which the decentralized and centralized supply chains achieve the same outcome. By numerical experiments, we show that the firm's acceptance sampling plan and the supplier's quality effort level are sensitive to both the recall loss sharing ratio and the game format (i.e., the precommitment assumption of the inspection policy). © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

Allocating the U.S. Department of Defense Budget: Revisiting the ‘Incremental/Fair Share Model’

Abstract

This article examines the ‘incremental/fair share model’ that was proposed by Alex Mintz in 1988 concerning the budget allocation of the U.S. Department of Defense. Although Mintz was unable to confirm the correctness of his model, this study demonstrated it to be statistically significant. In the statistical analyses, I used the two-stage least squares method and Durbin’s h-test to better scrutinize the model’s adequacy. Few previous studies have addressed the allocation of the U.S. defence budget; consequently, the incremental/fair-share model should constitute a starting point for further research on the U.S. defence budget allocation.     

“协同制导通道”基本概念及其应用分析

舰艇编队协同反导作战,是海上网络中心作战的典型样式.针对舰艇编队网络化协同反导作战装备体系特殊性,提出了“协同制导通道”基本概念和数学表示方法,并对基于协同制导通道分配方法运用于网络化反导作战条件下武器资源分配进行了研究.分析了单舰反导作战“武器目标分配”的局限性,网络化反导作战“弹-目匹配”新需求和“协同制导通道”的选择方法,为确定“协同制导通道”选择的最优化指标,提出选择“协同制导通道”优化算法奠定了基础.     

车载多接入边缘网络中联合资源分配和动态任务卸载方案

针对车联网中车辆移动速度过快产生的任务卸载失败问题,设计了一个有效的任务卸载风险评估模型,并提出了联合资源分配的动态任务卸载方案。将时间、能耗和风险共同建模为系统效用,通过联合优化卸载决策、资源分配来最大化系统效用。优化问题被公式化为混合整数非线性规划,在给定卸载决策的情况下,利用凸优化技术解决计算资源分配问题,功率分配通过分式规划技术来优化。仿真分析了车辆移动性对系统效用的影响,证明了所提方案的合理性。     

Discrete search allocation game with false contacts

This paper deals with a two‐person zero‐sum game called a search allocation game, where a searcher and a target participate, taking account of false contacts. The searcher distributes his search effort in a search space in order to detect the target. On the other hand, the target moves to avoid the searcher. As a payoff of the game, we take the cumulative amount of search effort weighted by the target distribution, which can be derived as an approximation of the detection probability of the target. The searcher's strategy is a plan of distributing search effort and the target's is a movement represented by a path or transition probability across the search space. In the search, there are false contacts caused by environmental noises, signal processing noises, or real objects resembling true targets. If they happen, the searcher must take some time for their investigation, which interrupts the search for a while. There have been few researches dealing with search games with false contacts. In this paper, we formulate the game into a mathematical programming problem to obtain its equilibrium point. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Some probability functions in reliability and their applications

There has been much research on the general failure model recently. In the general failure model, when the unit fails at its age t, Type I failure (minor failure) occurs with probability 1 ? p(t) and Type II failure (catastrophic failure) occurs with probability p(t). In the previous research, some specific shapes (constant, non‐decreasing, or bathtub‐shape) on the probability function p(t) are assumed. In this article, general results on some probability functions are obtained and applied to study the shapes of p(t). The results are also applied to determining the optimal inspection and allocation policies in maintenance problems. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007