GM(1，1)模型与指数回归模型的比较与研究

GM(1,1)模型与指数回归模型都是对具有指数或近似指数规律的系列数据建立的数学模型。通过对两种模型进行比较与研究,发现一方面,利用数据列的灰指数特性建立指数回归模型,可以简单地实现数据列的预测过程;另一方面,利用指数回归模型可以对灰色理论的GM(1,1)模型进行控制和优化。     

灰色数列预测应用分析

对灰色理论与统计分析在装备经济管理工作中的实用性分别以模型机理、模型数据处理复杂性和模型结果精度三方面进行了比较分析,着重指出在某些情况下灰色模型具有小样本而精度高的特点,并列举了实例加以说明．     

装备保障体制研究的现状与发展

论述了装备保障体制研究的目的、意义 ,以及装备保障体制研究的概况 ,总结了装备保障体制研究的主要成果 ,指出了装备保障体制研究中存在的主要问题及今后研究的方向。     

Timely exposure of a secret project: Which activities to monitor?

A defender wants to detect as quickly as possible whether some attacker is secretly conducting a project that could harm the defender. Security services, for example, need to expose a terrorist plot in time to prevent it. The attacker, in turn, schedules his activities so as to remain undiscovered as long as possible. One pressing question for the defender is: which of the project's activities to focus intelligence efforts on? We model the situation as a zero‐sum game, establish that a late‐start schedule defines a dominant attacker strategy, and describe a dynamic program that yields a Nash equilibrium for the zero‐sum game. Through an innovative use of cooperative game theory, we measure the harm reduction thanks to each activity's intelligence effort, obtain insight into what makes intelligence effort more effective, and show how to identify opportunities for further harm reduction. We use a detailed example of a nuclear weapons development project to demonstrate how a careful trade‐off between time and ease of detection can reduce the harm significantly.     

Purchase and retrieval competition for seasonal produce

We study the competition problem of purchase and multiretrieval of perishable seasonal produce, where wholesalers purchase and stock their products in the first period, and then retrieve and sell them in subsequent periods. We first consider the duopoly case and assume that the prices are exogenous and fluctuate. In each period, after the price realization, the wholesalers retrieve some stock from their warehouses to satisfy their demands. One wholesaler's unsatisfied customers can switch to another and be satisfied by its left retrieved products. Any unsold retrieved stock has no salvage value and any unsatisfied demand is lost. The unretrieved stock is carried to the next period at a perishable rate. The wholesalers compete for the substitute demand by determining their own purchase and retrieval quantities. We show the existence and uniqueness of a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium, and that the Nash equilibrium strategy has the simple “sell-down-to” structure. We also consider the general N-person game and show the existence of the Nash equilibrium, and characterize the structure of the equilibrium strategy for the symmetric case. In addition, we consider the case with endogenous prices, and show that the problem reduces to a repeated newsvendor game with price and inventory competition. We derive the conditions under which a unique Nash equilibrium exists and characterize the equilibrium strategy. Finally, we conduct numerical studies to examine the impacts of the model parameters on the equilibrium outcomes and to generate managerial insights.     

基于非局部理论的黏弹性基体中压电纳米梁热-机电振动特性

基于非局部Euler梁理论和Hamilton原理建立黏弹性基体中压电纳米梁的热-机电振动特性分析模型。综合考虑非局部效应、压电效应、温度场、电场等复杂因素影响,推导出黏弹性基体中压电纳米梁振动特性分析的振动控制方程,并利用分布参数传递函数方法求解出一般边界条件下压电纳米梁的固有频率及相应振型。以锆钛酸铅压电陶瓷-4材料制成的某压电纳米梁为例,给出了四种典型边界条件下该压电纳米梁的前四阶固有频率,并系统分析了非局部效应、外部电压、温度载荷、黏弹性基体等因素对压电纳米梁热-机电振动特性的影响规律。分析结果表明:所建立的振动特性分析模型及其求解方法在分析黏弹性基体中压电纳米梁的热-机电振动特性问题中准确有效。     

军事物流服务商准入标准设置和甄选研究综述

军事物流服务商甄选研究是新军事变革下供应商管理发展的重要方向,是有效完成后勤保障任务、顺利实施作战行动的重要保证。基于此,本文从供应商关系理论和发展、物流服务商指标体系选择以及结合其他方法对物流服务商甄选三个方面对国内外研究现状进行总结概述,对整个军事物流服务商的选择过程加以研究,将其科学客观地运用于军事物流服务商选择的实际操作中,对于加强军事物流服务商需求管理、提高选择质效以及优化工作流程具有重大意义。同时,分析现有研究成果的不足,并对其未来发展前景提出展望,针对性地提出了军事物流服务商初步准入标准以及后续复选的方法,为军事物流服务商选择体系的完善提供参考。     

深入学习贯彻习主席重要论述 全面推进军队院校军事理论研究创新发展【将军论坛】

科学的军事理论就是战斗力。在新起点上全面推进军队院校军事理论研究创新发展,必须深入学习贯彻习主席关于军事理论创新的重要论述,着力提高站位、谋篇布局、形成拳头,进一步加强标准统筹、导向统筹、力量统筹和机制统筹,努力为强军兴军实践提供科学理论支撑。     

【邀请论文】美军未来司令部探析——成立背景、主要职能与未来前景

新一轮科技革命的快速发展正推动战争形态从信息化向智能化演进。美军作为二战后始终位列世界第一的军事力量,正在积极设计未来战争以应对当前的“大国竞争”,2018年刚刚成立的陆军未来司令部正是在这一背景下产生的。未来司令部隶属于美国陆军,主要负责美陆军新型武器装备的研发、未来作战概念创新以及新兴军事科技的测试和应用。成立两年以来,未来司令部已经拥有了一套完善、严密的组织架构,创造了包括C5ISR作战概念在内的一系列理论成果,在空基导弹、远程精确火力系统等新型作战装备上也取得了众多进展。本文基于大量前沿文献研究,廓清了未来司令部的组织架构,总结了其主要职能,并对这一新设司令部的发展前景进行了展望和预测,期望能够为推进军队现代化和未来化建设提供有益启示。     

微型导弹柔性充气翼结构设计与力学变形仿真

以NACA2412为基准翼型设计充气弹翼,采用柔性蒙皮应力分析理论并根据弹翼蒙皮材料强度极限理论建立考虑分布质量影响的改进应力表达模型,据此得到柔性薄膜弹翼允许充气压力范围。分析结果发现:柔性弹翼充气单元尺寸越小,相应的充气压力允许范围越大。采用ABAQUS/CAE软件以不可压缩壳单元仿真柔性充气弹翼在不同充气压力条件下的变形情况,发现非对称翼型充气后中间下凹的翘曲方式并确定柔性蒙皮的危险点,利用翼面典型线分析了充气翼局部力学变形特性。进一步对充气弹翼进行表面覆膜改进分析,获得了良好的结构力学性能改进效果。