“三个代表”重要思想与舆论导向

“三个代表”重要思想是全面建设中国特色社会主义的纲领,也是统领新闻工作的指导思想和选择新闻的重要标准。作为新时期的新闻工作者,只有从“三个代表”的高度自觉把握新闻宣传的正确舆论导向,与时俱进,开拓创新,才能使新闻事业永葆生机和活力。     

对公安边防工作执法为民的思考

本文对当前公安边防部队执勤执法中存在的问题及原因进行了剖析,提出要全面理解执法为民在公安边防工作中的具体内涵和要求,牢固树立“四个意识”,以求真务实的态度和勇于开拓的精神狠抓队伍建设,围绕“三个有利于”,找准公安边防工作的着力点,加强勤务规范化建设和执勤执法监督以及落实从优待警措施,不断改进公安边防工作,使执法为民的宗旨真正落到实处。     

经济利益与行政控权

作为一种公共权力 ,行政权只能用于公共事业 ,只服务于公众利益 ,而不能有私利。在行政法学中遵循行政权力与经济利益相分离的原则 ,杜绝部门立法 ,完善公司法 ,清理行政性公司 ,建立公务员财产申报制度是控制行政权的良策     

网络舆情中一种基于OLDA的在线话题演化方法

研究网络舆情分析中话题演化方法.首先分析网络舆情信息的特点;在此基础上,建立网络舆情信息模型,基于话题模型抽象描述文本内容的隐含语义,进而建立文本流在时间序列上的关联模型;进一步,提出基于OLDA的话题演化方法,针对舆情信息的特点,建立不同时间片话题间的关联.实验结果表明,该方法能够有效检测话题演化,为网络舆情分析提供了有效途径.     

A standardized scan statistic for detecting spatial clusters with estimated parameters

The scan statistic based on likelihood ratios (LRs) have been widely discussed for detecting spatial clusters. When developing the scan statistic, it uses the maximum likelihood estimates of the incidence rates inside and outside candidate clusters to substitute the true values in the LR statistic. However, the parameter estimation has a significant impact on the sensitivity of the scan statistic, which favors the detection of clusters in areas with large population sizes. By presenting the effects of parameter estimation on Kulldorff's scan statistic, we suggest a standardized scan statistic for spatial cluster detection. Compared to the traditional scan statistic, the standardized scan statistic can account for the varying mean and variance of the LR statistic due to inhomogeneous background population sizes. Extensive simulations have been performed to compare the power of the two cluster detection methods with known or/and estimated parameters. The simulation results show that the standardization can help alleviate the effects of parameter estimation and improve the detection of localized clusters. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

基于公共燃气排导结构的共架发射系统武器选择与布局方法

公共燃气排导结构和同心筒结构的共架发射系统由于燃气排导机理不同,其对武器发射的影响及在武器选择、布局等方面均存在较大差异.针对公共燃气排导结构的共架发射系统分析了公共燃气排导对武器发射的影响,提出了武器选择与布局方法,通过算例进行了验证并得出结论:公共燃气排导结构的共架发射系统武器布局上应采取分散布局,武器选择上应优先选择“无发射活动、对应武器数量较多、烧蚀值较小”的模块,且按照模块编号依次交替在不同模块进行武器发射.     

基于知识图谱和二级传播理论的网络舆情事件传播分析

在目前的网络舆情事件传播分析中,尽管生命周期模型能够较好地描述舆情事件的发展规律,但却忽略了部分时期之间存在的共性特征,无法充分体现意见领袖对网络舆情事件传播过程的影响。本文提出了一种基于知识图谱和二级传播理论的网络舆情事件传播分析方法,首先,构建网络舆情事件知识图谱;然后,基于知识图谱计算用户影响力挖掘意见领袖;最后,考虑到意见领袖的重要地位,为有效刻画网络舆情传播规律、周期与途径,根据传播学二级传播理论构建网络舆情事件传播模型,将生命周期模型的五个时期按照舆情发展态势划分为三个阶段：潜伏期（爆发期阶段）、爆发期（成熟期阶段）以及成熟期和衰退期（消亡期阶段）。实验结果表明,该方法能够有效计算和发掘包括意见领袖在内的用户影响力,传播、分析网络舆情事件效果较好。     

Clustering in defence-related procurement: the case of a Belgian naval construction cluster

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the importance of closer co-operation in defence-related procurement. Led by the decision that Belgium will lead the procurement of 12 Mine CounterMeasures Vessels (MCMV), the case of a potential Belgian naval construction cluster is discussed. The feasibility of a potential cluster is investigated by looking at key elements of a successful naval construction cluster, the Dutch naval construction cluster, and comparing those key elements to the current Belgian situation. Forming a sustainable Belgian naval construction cluster will be difficult. Most of the procurement process of the MCMVs is set on a European tender. In the long run, due to the absence of both a launching customer and leader firms, no party is able to carry the cluster with investments and knowledge spill-overs. In order to keep public support for large defence-related investments, clustering around the MCMV integration system and proactive cluster support is recommended.     

Guns and butter? Military expenditure and health spending on the eve of the Arab Spring

We examine the validity of the guns-versus-butter hypothesis in the pre-Arab Spring era. Using panel data from 1995 to 2011 – the eve of the Arab uprisings – we find no evidence that increased security needs as measured by the number of domestic terrorist attacks are complemented by increased military spending or more importantly ‘crowd out’ government expenditure on key public goods such as health care. This suggests that both expenditure decisions were determined by other considerations at the government level.     

网络舆论智能引导仿真推演模型与系统构建

传统马甲机械发帖的网络舆论引导方式存在智能水平不高、效果不佳的缺点。人工智能的快速发展为网络舆论智能引导奠定了坚实的理论与技术基础。本文突破新闻传播学的思维定式，利用智能体、系统建模与仿真等理论技术，研究网络舆论智能引导，提出“态势感知-仿真推演-舆论引导”的网络舆论智能引导思路，构建网络舆论智能引导仿真推演模型，明确仿真推演工具，进而构建网络舆论智能引导系统，在仿真推演的基础上实施网络舆论引导，从而颠覆传统马甲的机械式发帖引导方式，破解难以在真实网络环境中直接尝试各种引导策略的困局。本文的研究成果对于丰富网络舆论斗争理论，占领网络舆论制高点，具有重要理论意义和参考价值。