论城市公共安全管理网络平台的建设

针对城市的快速发展,各种突发性自然灾害或人为破坏事件增多,在充分分析城市公共安全管理现状的基础上,提出了城市公共安全管理网络平台建设,并对其总体结构,各自功能,技术、政策支持及运行模式进行了深入论述。     

关于公安消防部队信息化建设整体规划的思考

对公安消防部队信息化建设的总体目标、建设思路、现状、发展战略重点及保障措施等方面提出了基本看法。     

The impact of demand uncertainty on product line design under endogenous substitution

The existing product line design literature devotes little attention to the effect of demand uncertainty. Due to demand uncertainty, the supply‐demand mismatch is inevitable which leads to different degrees of lost sales depending on the configuration of product lines. In this article, we adopt a stylized two‐segment setup with uncertain market sizes and illustrate the interplay between two effects: risk pooling that mitigates the impact of demand uncertainty and market segmentation that facilitates consumer differentiation. Compared to downward substitution, inducing bidirectional substitution through product line decisions including quality levels and prices can yield greater risk pooling effects. However, we show that the additional benefit from the risk pooling effect cannot compensate for the reduced market segmentation effect. We demonstrate that the presence of demand uncertainty can reduce the benefit of market segmentation and therefore the length of product lines in terms of the difference between products. We also propose three heuristics that separate product line and production decisions; each of these heuristics corresponds to one particular form of demand substitution. Our numerical studies indicate that the best of the three heuristics yields performance that is close to optimality. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 143–157, 2015     

Should firms conceal information when dealing with common suppliers?

A firm making quantity decision under uncertainty loses profit if its private information is leaked to competitors. Outsourcing increases this risk as a third party supplier may leak information for its own benefit. The firm may choose to conceal information from the competitors by entering in a confidentiality agreement with the supplier. This, however, diminishes the firm's ability to dampen competition by signaling a higher quantity commitment. We examine this trade‐off in a stylized supply chain in which two firms, endowed with private demand information, order sequentially from a common supplier, and engage in differentiated quantity competition. In our model, the supplier can set different wholesale prices for firms, and the second‐mover firm could be better informed. Contrary to what is expected, information concealment is not always beneficial to the first mover. We characterize conditions under which the first mover firm will not prefer concealing information. We show that this depends on the relative informativeness of the second mover and is moderated by competition intensity. We examine the supplier's incentive in participating in information concealment, and develop a contract that enables it for wider set of parameter values. We extend our analysis to examine firms' incentive to improve information. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. 62:1–15, 2015     

基于时空序贯融合的TBM拦截效果评估

基于时空信息进行了TBM拦截效果评估的研究。首先分析了拦截效果评估信息的特征,建立了TBM拦截效果评估流程;在此基础上提出了基于"空间特征级-时间决策级"思想的序贯融合评估模型;融合评估算法中,空间域选取模糊神经网络进行特征级融合,时间域选取D-S证据理论完成决策级融合,空间特征级融合模糊神经网络的各层映射函数分别由模糊隶属函数和采用贝叶斯网络的方法来获取;最后通过实验仿真了评估流程,验证了融合评估模型及融合算法的有效性。     

面向任务的战术行动自主协同关系模型

在信息化战争的大背景下,战术行动中团队协同作战一直是研究的重点问题,而如何建立自主协同关系是团队协同研究的一个难点问题。在分析已有团队协同理论和框架的基础上,提出一种面向任务的战术行动自主协同关系模型建立方法。该模型首先根据当前战场态势和上级任务发布自主协同任务集合,各作战单元根据战场态势和自主决策自愿参与自主协同任务,其次利用作战单元与自主协同任务间的相互关系实现对关键角色的判断。如果关键协同成员参与自主协同任务则自主协同关系建立成功,反之,建立失败。     

基于HLA的多雷达组网信息融合仿真系统

首先基于高层体系结构建立了带反馈结构的信息融合仿真系统软件框架,然后针对多雷达组网探测隐身目标应用进行了仿真系统方案设计,描述了组成联邦的各联邦成员间的数据流向及订阅关系。详细介绍了各联邦成员的功能及输入输出接口,设计了联邦执行数据文件。基于MAK RTI完成了主要模块的编码实现,进行了目标跟踪算法移植,并测试了基于协方差的组网雷达宏管理算法的性能,验证了建立的多雷达组网信息融合仿真系统的有效性。     

一种新型无后端数据库的RFID安全认证协议

对某无后端数据库RFID安全认证协议的安全性进行了分析,并针对其安全漏洞,给出了一种新型的无后端数据库的RFID安全认证协议。对新协议的安全性分析表明:该协议能够满足双向认证、匿名性、抗追踪攻击、抗克隆攻击、抗物理攻击、抗窃听、抗拒绝服务攻击以及失同步攻击等要求。最后,给出了新协议的BAN逻辑证明。     

基于灰色预测的时敏军事任务调度模型

为有效利用栅格化军事信息系统硬件冗余资源,提高系统运行时效,保证时敏军事任务执行效果,基于灰色理论的GM(1,1),提出了一种时敏军事任务调度模型。构建了基于主动式主/副本机制的调度流程,并针对普通(阈值)调度模型和模糊控制调度模型中调度触发的滞后和调度价值不确定的问题,设计了预测型调度时间窗口,有效优化了调度触发机制。最后通过仿真实验,考察了3种调度模型的有效性,结果表明模型虽然耗费了较大的调度开销,但在降低总体任务用时上作用明显。     

一种改进的证据理论合成规则

随着证据理论在信息融合领域中的广泛应用,对冲突证据的处理成为证据理论和应用研究热点。提出了一种基于证据重要度和聚焦度的新的合成规则,首先根据各个证据的重要度对冲突证据进行修正,再对冲突进行细化并考虑证据焦元的基数对D-S合成法则的影响,将冲突信息提取后加入组合规则中。通过实验比较和分析,结果说明该方法不仅能够处理一般性冲突问题,也能处理"一票否决"和"鲁棒性"问题。