A standardized scan statistic for detecting spatial clusters with estimated parameters

The scan statistic based on likelihood ratios (LRs) have been widely discussed for detecting spatial clusters. When developing the scan statistic, it uses the maximum likelihood estimates of the incidence rates inside and outside candidate clusters to substitute the true values in the LR statistic. However, the parameter estimation has a significant impact on the sensitivity of the scan statistic, which favors the detection of clusters in areas with large population sizes. By presenting the effects of parameter estimation on Kulldorff's scan statistic, we suggest a standardized scan statistic for spatial cluster detection. Compared to the traditional scan statistic, the standardized scan statistic can account for the varying mean and variance of the LR statistic due to inhomogeneous background population sizes. Extensive simulations have been performed to compare the power of the two cluster detection methods with known or/and estimated parameters. The simulation results show that the standardization can help alleviate the effects of parameter estimation and improve the detection of localized clusters. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

网络舆情中一种基于OLDA的在线话题演化方法

研究网络舆情分析中话题演化方法.首先分析网络舆情信息的特点;在此基础上,建立网络舆情信息模型,基于话题模型抽象描述文本内容的隐含语义,进而建立文本流在时间序列上的关联模型;进一步,提出基于OLDA的话题演化方法,针对舆情信息的特点,建立不同时间片话题间的关联.实验结果表明,该方法能够有效检测话题演化,为网络舆情分析提供了有效途径.     

“三个代表”重要思想与舆论导向

“三个代表”重要思想是全面建设中国特色社会主义的纲领,也是统领新闻工作的指导思想和选择新闻的重要标准。作为新时期的新闻工作者,只有从“三个代表”的高度自觉把握新闻宣传的正确舆论导向,与时俱进,开拓创新,才能使新闻事业永葆生机和活力。     

一种开放式PKI身份认证模型的研究

分析了传统PKI(Public Key Infrastructure)身份认证模型存在的问题,基于OCSP(Online Certificate Status Protocol)协议的证书状态验证服务和密钥验证服务相分离,造成了传统PKI身份认证模型的信任度下降,增加了身份认证的风险,跨CA(Certificate Authority)认证复杂度高,CA机构提供的身份认证服务不完整等问题。提出了一种开放式PKI身份认证模型,由CA中心独立完成两个验证服务,将OCSP应答机制改进为提供身份证明文件的方式,可有效解决上述问题。通过云信任评估模型对两种认证模型进行了量化评估,证明了本文提出的开放式身份认证模型可有效提高信任度。对该模型进行了原型实现,重点对性能问题进行了优化,实验测试表明,该模型具有实用价值。     

PLAYING GOD WITH HIV

It is generally understood that conflict can contribute to the spread of disease. This paper explains the reverse: how disease, as an accelerating factor, can result in serious conflict. While not a cause of war itself, HIV/AIDS exacerbates existing tensions: social, ethnic and political. Political constituencies concerned about HIV/AIDS will become frustrated if the state's leadership does not meet their demands. The demand for medical treatment of the disease is certain to exceed supply in all Southern African states. Projects to treat the disease are small and access is limited. The criteria for access, both real and perceived, will play a critical role in determining the level of conflict and disruption that HIV/AIDS will cause.     

公安边防机动部队实施跨区增援行动的思考

公安边防机动部队成建制、成规模实施跨区增援行动是遂行边境维稳任务的重要行动样式,也是当前公安边防机动部队实战能力建设的重大课题。分析了公安边防机动部队实施跨区增援的影响和制约因素,从战备工作、指挥协调、通信联络、装备建设、综合保障等方面对做好跨区增援行动进行了初步思考和研究,提出了若干建议,以期有助于当前公安边防机动部队的建设。     

火灾公众责任保险与消防治理问题研究

阐述了火灾公众责任保险的涵义,分析了火灾公众责任保险在消防治理中的作用,梳理了火灾公众责任保险的发展现状问题,进而提出消防治理视阈下火灾公众责任保险的发展思路。     

公安现役部队危机传播中的人本思想研究

科学的危机传播包括危机预警传播、危机应急传播和危机善后传播.公安现役部队危机预警传播应以人为本,常态化传播危机预警信息;危机应急传播应体现人文关怀;危机善后传播应进行社会心理疏导,发掘并弘扬人性的善与美.     

基于统计回归模型的突发事件网络舆情研究

突发事件网络舆情传播速度快,在较短的时间内能够引起社会大众的广泛关注,产生较大的影响.通过利用突发事件网络舆情传播规律和酶促反应相似的机理,构建统计回归模型来研究分析突发事件网络舆情的规律,并通过实例进行论证,以期为政府应对突发事件网络舆情提供参考.