PLAYING GOD WITH HIV

It is generally understood that conflict can contribute to the spread of disease. This paper explains the reverse: how disease, as an accelerating factor, can result in serious conflict. While not a cause of war itself, HIV/AIDS exacerbates existing tensions: social, ethnic and political. Political constituencies concerned about HIV/AIDS will become frustrated if the state's leadership does not meet their demands. The demand for medical treatment of the disease is certain to exceed supply in all Southern African states. Projects to treat the disease are small and access is limited. The criteria for access, both real and perceived, will play a critical role in determining the level of conflict and disruption that HIV/AIDS will cause.     

主机安全监控系统的设计与实现

针对现有主机监控系统存在的执行效率低、监控粒度粗等问题,通过在内核态设置钩子函数改写系统服务调度表,同时在用户层设置策略库进行细粒度监控,设计并实现了主机安全监控系统。该系统具有执行效率高、占用系统资源少、监控粒度细等特点。     

公安边防机动部队实施跨区增援行动的思考

公安边防机动部队成建制、成规模实施跨区增援行动是遂行边境维稳任务的重要行动样式,也是当前公安边防机动部队实战能力建设的重大课题。分析了公安边防机动部队实施跨区增援的影响和制约因素,从战备工作、指挥协调、通信联络、装备建设、综合保障等方面对做好跨区增援行动进行了初步思考和研究,提出了若干建议,以期有助于当前公安边防机动部队的建设。     

SDI,NATO, and the Social Composition Function

The strategic defense initiative (SDI) intends to renew the leadership of the USA on the western alliance. The initiative takes place in a period when a summation technology prevails for the aggregation of contributions of NATO allies. We investigate if SDI induces a shift in Hirshleifer’s social composition function. Panel data tests over the period 1970–1990 do not confirm any break toward a best-shot aggregator. SDI does not alter the core of deterrence. It is indeed a public good at the US level but not at the NATO level, where, it is one of the joint products of the alliance. We also investigate the lessons to be drawn for the current debates on ballistic defense.     

International Security,Multiple Public Good Provisions,and The Exploitation Hypothesis

Since the 1960s Olson-Zeckhauser’s (1966) analysis, its ‘exploitation of the great by the small’ has provided economists’ core model of alliance’s provision of security/defense. But with the end of the Cold War, countries’ allocative behavior has diverged markedly from OZ’s predictions for defense as a homogeneous pure public good voluntarily provided. This paper suggests a replacement for OZ, with the essential difference that ‘defense’ rather than being aggregated into their single public good is disaggregated into more realistic categories of self-insurance and self-protection. Because allocative behavior in public good groups is essentially driven by income effects, we concentrate on these, which become complex and conflicted, giving much greater scope for goods-inferiority. The analysis is followed by numerical simulations, which conform to actual experienced allocations in NATO much better than the conventional ‘exploitation’ model.     

The mercurial development of Russia's United Aircraft Corporation

Russia's 2006 renationalisation of its aerospace industry heralded a new era in industrial policy. Symbolising a return to the importance of securing sovereignty over the Federation's strategic assets, it also posits, powerfully, that sectors like aerospace and shipbuilding are too important to be left to the market. In what now appears a reversal of this policy approach, Moscow is promoting partial privatisation and encouraging partnership with Western aerospace companies. Foreign infusion of capital and technology is viewed as the catalyst for Russian dominance in the global military and commercial aerospace industries.     

基于地理信息平台的公安边防综合指挥系统建设研究

在深入调研公安边防部队各级指挥中心业务开展的基础上,分析了当前公安边防部队指挥系统存在的问题,提出了利用地理信息平台建立适应当前边防部队业务需要的综合指挥系统的可行性及具体思路。     

大型综合公共建筑的火灾风险评估

大型综合公共建筑的火灾有其特殊性,应用层次分析法进行火灾风险评估时,关键在于根据消防工作的特点,结合在实际工作中得到的经验,建立评估的指标体系和各指标的评价尺度,这样才能得出符合实际的工作方法。     

基于统计回归模型的突发事件网络舆情研究

突发事件网络舆情传播速度快,在较短的时间内能够引起社会大众的广泛关注,产生较大的影响.通过利用突发事件网络舆情传播规律和酶促反应相似的机理,构建统计回归模型来研究分析突发事件网络舆情的规律,并通过实例进行论证,以期为政府应对突发事件网络舆情提供参考.     

Turkey-Africa alliance: Evolving patterns in security relations

ABSTRACT

Turkey has maintained its strategic relations with Africa at the highest level under recent AK Party governments in the field not only of low politics but also of high politics. For example, it opened its largest overseas military base in Somalia in 2017 and signed military, defense and security pacts with more than 25 African countries. This article traces the deep historical and cultural relations with Africa behind its newly evolving foreign policy identity, arguing that its booming economic power has been a significant driving force in shaping a new security strategy. It examines what the growing security involvement means for both Turkey and Africa in order to contribute to the relevant literature through a holistic approach from both theoretical and conceptual perspectives.