French war plans, 1914: The ‘Balance of Power Paradox’

Historians have noted that both German and French war preparation in 1914 fell victim to the inadequacies of traditional threat-based planning: vulnerability to ‘threat deception’ which caused each to underestimate or mischaracterize the threat; a tendency to ‘mirror-image’ by fitting intelligence into preconceived notions of how the enemy was expected to behave; and ‘group think’ that discouraged a serious consideration of alternative scenarios. This article applies the ‘Balance of Power Paradox’ to explain why, at the dawn of the twentieth century, war planning in both Germany and France was driven by an acute sense of weakness which encouraged each side to fashion highly ‘risk acceptant’ strategies. In particular, he examines why and how French commander-in-chief General Joseph Joffre evolved and rationalized his audacious, and disastrous, Plan XVII to leverage French weaknesses and prevent the stronger German Army from bringing the full weight of its military strength to bear against France. The potential implication of this historical vignette is that leaders, and by extension military planners, of both strong and weak states focus on the constraints faced by their opponents, and assume that they can avoid the limitations of their position, while their opponent cannot.     

一种对时钟偏差不敏感的无源RFID标签编解码算法

基于我国自主射频识别空中接口协议GJB 7377.1-2011,提出了一种对时钟偏差不敏感的无源RFID标签编解码算法。该算法充分考虑了时钟频率偏差、计数误差、分频误差等对编解码的影响,推导出了标签正确编解码所需的时钟约束条件,并得到了标签编解码的基本思路和方法。仿真结果表明,提出的编解码算法对标签时钟精度要求较低,只要时钟频率大于1.60 MHz,即可满足要求,大大降低了硬件实现的难度和复杂度,与同类实现方式相比,功耗降低了近50%。     

载体干扰磁场补偿方法

获得载体航行路径上各点地磁场的精确测量值是地磁匹配导航的前提,而载体上各种干扰磁场的存在会引起磁力仪输出的偏差,影响匹配的精度,因此必须对载体干扰磁场进行补偿。在分析载体干扰磁场特性的基础上,提出利用矢量测量值对地磁场总场值进行补偿的方法。该方法首先根据矢量磁力仪的测量模型得到关于载体磁场参数的非线性方程,然后采用非线性参数估计方法估计出精确的载体干扰磁场系数,最后再利用估计结果对测量值进行补偿。通过仿真对该方法的有效性进行研究,并设计了半实物实验对其实用性进行验证。结果表明采用本文提出的方法补偿后地磁场总场值的测量误差在20nT以内,而且该方法参数估计精度高,应用方便,可以有效地对导航载体干扰磁场进行补偿。     

水下航行器燃烧室两相流燃烧数值模拟

提出水下航行器燃烧室中两相流燃烧数值模拟方法.采用k-ε双方程湍流模型、涡耗散燃烧模型、离散相液滴模型进行数值模拟,得到单组元推进剂燃烧的速度场、温度场、浓度场的分布.研究了喷嘴压差、环境背压对燃烧的影响,得出了一定范围内,增大喷嘴压差、增大环境背压可以增强燃烧效果的结论.     

半预制破片PELE弹丸对武装直升机毁伤效能

为研究半预制破片PELE弹丸对武装直升机的毁伤效能,选取代表性的阿帕奇武装直升机为研究对象,建立了阿帕奇武装直升机关键部件驾驶舱和发动机舱的等效模型,在此基础上应用ANSYS/LS-DYNA就半预制破片PELE弹丸对阿帕奇武装直升机的毁伤效能进行了数值分析.结果表明:半预制破片PELE弹丸能有效穿透阿帕奇武装直升机的防护装甲,在穿透防护靶后弹丸壳体大面积碎裂,产生大量具有较高轴向剩余速度和一定径向飞散速度的破片,形成一个大面积的破片场,这些破片及弹丸剩余部分可对武装直升机内部人员及仪器设备造成有效毁伤,极大地增强了PELE弹丸的毁伤效能.     

火灾时公路隧道排烟方案设计与优选

针对双车道单向行驶高速公路隧道火灾提出三种排烟方案.利用FDS软件数值模拟火灾时各方案对烟气迁移和温度分布的影响,最后优选火灾时的排烟方案.结果表明：三种方案均能起到很好的排烟效果.若不考虑成本及技术难度,组合排烟方式效果最佳;若考虑成本和技术难度,则设置排烟口排烟效果最佳.在实际隧道发生火灾时,应综合考虑决定选取哪一种方案.若选用组合排烟方式,笔者建议火灾时,火源上游仅开启射流风机,火源下游则应同时开启排烟口,这样既节约成本,又能达到目的.     

A LONG‐RUN ANALYSIS OF DEFENCE SPENDING IN THE NATO COUNTRIES (1960–99)

This paper analyses the long‐run demand for defence output through a homogeneous treatment of 15 NATO member countries between 1960 and 1999. We carry out a progressive study of the interactions between either defence spending or defence burden and their main determinants: income, external threat and allied military spending. To that end, we use time‐series analysis with endogenously determined structural breaks. We further consider individual country functions related to one another through a common correlated effects method, in order to take into account explicitly the connections between members of an alliance.     

长方体类光学元件形位误差高精度测量方法

如何实现长方体元件光学面形位误差的高精度测量以及怎样利用测量数据对这些误差进行修正加工是制造过程中的主要问题。提出一种基于波面干涉的长方体类光学元件形位误差测量方法,借助大口径干涉仪和高精度端齿盘搭建测量系统,实现了长方体类光学元件1μm/400mm精度的平行度和垂直度测量,获得了高精度的形位误差综合分布数据,并利用磁流变、小磨头数控抛光等现代光学加工手段实现了此类光学元件的高精度加工。     

受限空间雾化射流降温与加湿作用数值分析

以雾化射流预防、控制受限空间内油气热安全事故为工程背景,综合可压缩流场控制方程、k-ε湍流模型、粒子动力学模型与相变传热模型,构建了描述受限空间内雾化射流降温与加湿作用的数值分析模型。借助Fluent流体动力学仿真软件,以1 600 mm×200 mm二维狭长受限空间中不同工况的雾化射流为算例,对雾化射流降温与加湿过程进行了数值模拟,并探讨了雾化射流流量与粒径的不同对上述作用的影响。所得结果为进一步探究雾化射流降温与加湿行为,推进雾化射流在热安全防护领域的工程应用提供借鉴和参考。     

Keep the change: Counterinsurgency,Iraq, and historical understanding

This article explores the historical reasoning behind counterinsurgency thinking, particularly as applied to Iraq, using Douglas Porch's book, Counterinsurgency: Exposing the Myths of the New Way of War as a reference point. It argues that the classic historical analogies of counterinsurgency theory were inapt in dealing with the conflict in Iraq, and that the historical reasoning behind counterinsurgency more generally deserves greater scrutiny. Not only are the analogies of questionable applicability, but the evidence of causation in prior conflicts is ultimately unproveable. In the end, Counterinsurgency theory and the US Army's Field Manual 3-24 on Counterinsurgency were politically useful during the ‘Surge’, beginning in 2007, but remain intellectually and historically problematic.