Rose-tinted lenses: how American functionalist strategy inhibits our appreciation of complex conflicts

Strategists and military professionals have previously questioned many of the methodological (theoretical underpinnings, the principles, and rules applied by the discipline) decisions associated with American military strategy, but the direction this essay takes is above and beyond the common methodological rivalries in how we pursue strategic desired future states. To get beyond methodological disputes entirely, we must consider thinking about our thinking as an organization on American strategy. Thus, this article hovers between philosophies, organizational theory, as well as our usually unquestioned belief in something called “strategy”. Questioning things about our basic understanding of the world tends to trigger strong organizational defense mechanisms, for good reason. Critical reflection at deep levels puts our worldview, and our role within it at stake. Nonetheless, as strategic disappointment emerges over multiple complex conflict developments, even the most cherished and guarded choices on how the world ought to work are ripe for critical inquiry. This essay examines the limited single strategic paradigm of the US defense industry and how the latest American National Security Strategy and Army Future Operating Concept (Win in a Complex World through 2030) presents a flawed strategic position. This essay presents valid alternative strategies that operate within different paradigmatic constructs.     

‘Look like the innocent flower,but be the serpent under’t’: mimicking behaviour of growth-oriented terrorist organizations

This paper examines the interaction between a growth-oriented terrorist organization and an uninformed government based on a two-period signalling game. Combining the signalling game and organizational growth approaches of previous contributions, this paper shows that, if a terrorist group follows a growth strategy, it has an incentive to appear weaker than it is by mimicking the behaviour of a smaller organization. Depending on its beliefs about the extent of the terrorist threat, it can be optimal for a government to spend more on second-period counter-terrorism measures if it is not attacked in the first period than if it were attacked.     

论师范院校语文教育理论课教学改革和实验

语文教育理论课普遍存在教学结构不合理 ,理论体系和技能训练体系不完整 ,缺乏系统性和科学性 ,理论传授与能力训练相脱节等问题 ,影响了教学质量的提高 ,制约了教学改革的展开。本文对该课程的教学结构进行重新审视、梳理 ,将之划分为两个系统 ,并将其各自要素及相互关系进行分析 ,论证了理论知识系统与教学技能训练系统在教学过程中相互对应 ,同步进行 ,共同深化的科学性和可行性。     

加强党性党风建设 提高党员干部的整体水平

党性党风建设历来是我党高度重视的一个问题。高校领导干部亦不例外。目前 ,高校基层党员干部普遍存在政治理论水平不高 ,道德修养变形 ,党的意识淡薄等现象。要想提高高校基层党员干部党性党风建设的整体水平 ,就必须加强对其进行政治理论教育和道德教育 ,同时加强制度建设。唯有此 ,才能提高基层管理者的管理水平和整体办学层次     

分布交互仿真技术在作战理论研究中的应用

介绍了分布交互仿真技术的发展现状,对应用分布交互仿真技术进行作战理论研究的问题进行了探讨。     

基于可信性理论的标准-3拦截弹末段修正能力分析

基于可信性理论对标准-3拦截弹末段修正能力进行分析。由拦截末段相对运动动力学推导了标准-3拦截弹末段可消除的最大零控脱靶量解析表达式;针对其中的参数不确定性,将不确定参数视为模糊变量运用可信性理论进行建模,采用模糊模拟算法得到标准-3末段可消除的最大零控脱靶量的可能性测度悲观值和乐观值,可信性测度均值和标准差及可能性、必要性和可信性分布函数。本文研究为弹道导弹中段机动突防动力系统设计提供了理论依据,同时为如何根据有限的已知信息获得合理的未知信息提供了有效途径。     

Inventory transshipment game with limited supply: Trap or treat

Inventory transshipment is generally shown to be beneficial to retailers by matching their excess demand with surplus inventory. We investigate an inventory transshipment game with two newsvendor-type retailers under limited total supply and check whether the retailers are better off than the case without transshipment. We derive the ordering strategies for the retailers and show that unlike the unlimited supply case, a pure Nash equilibrium only exists under certain conditions. Furthermore, contrary to the conventional wisdom, we show that inventory transshipment may not always benefit both retailers. Although one of the retailers is guaranteed to be better off, the other could be worse off. The decision criteria are then provided for the retailers to determine if they will benefit from the exercise of inventory transshipment. Numerical study indicates that the carefully chosen transshipment prices play an important role in keeping inventory transshipment beneficial to both retailers. Subsequently, a coordinating mechanism is designed for the retailers to negotiate transshipment prices that maximize the total profit of the two retailers while keeping each of them in a beneficial position.     

Forces of heresy versus forces of conservation: making sense of Hezb-e Islami-ye Afghanistan’s and the Taleban’s positions in the Afghan insurgency

Ethnicity and ideology are frequently used to determine whether an armed group is hostile or friendly vis-à-vis the state. By contrast, I argue that the social structure of insurgent movements holds more explanatory power for their respective positions than ethnicity or ideology. To illustrate this, I apply Pierre Bourdieu’s concept of a contest between forces of ‘conservation’ and forces of ‘heresy’ to the current Afghanistan war. I demonstrate that the social structure of the Taleban renders them prone to ‘heresy’, while the formerly second biggest insurgent group, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s party, has rather been an impeded force of ‘conservation.’     

利益相容理论下国防科技军民协同创新的主要问题及对策

开展军民协同创新,是推进国防科技创新发展、建立军民融合创新体系的重要战略举措。利益相容是开展军民协同创新的重要前提。文章基于利益相容原理,科学分析军民协同创新的概念、特征及其理论基础,深入论证军民协同创新对推动国防科技军民融合发展的重要价值,认真剖析军民协同创新存在的诸如交易费用分摊、利益诉求多元、利益分配冲突和创新风险分摊等利益不相容问题,从文化环境塑造、利益分配、风险分摊和利益保障等方面构建军民协同创新的利益相容机制,使得军民两类科技创新主体利益相容、诉求一致,协同合作,共同推进国防科技创新与武器装备发展。     

基于成品油有限竞争市场的军油筹措战略研究

对国家成品油市场进行分析,认为目前国内成品油市场是典型的双寡头垄断有限竞争市场。通过对成品油市场主体厂商行为博弈的讨论,得出产量博弈的状况近期不会出现,价格博弈将使企业走入囚徒困境的结论。根据分析针对性地提出军油筹措战略,为相关决策提供参考。