作战指挥隐蔽性指标定量评估方法研究

作战指挥的隐蔽性是影响现代战争胜负的重要因素之一,针对作战指挥隐蔽性的特征,运用概率论建模理论探讨指挥隐蔽性指标的定量评估问题。定义了影响作战指挥隐蔽性因素的概率模型,以作战情报系统的3种不同状态为基础,建立了各系统状态的隐蔽性方程。通过模拟战场指挥过程,得到了不同条件下的作战系统隐蔽性概率,为改善指挥员的指挥方式提供了良好的理论参考意见,该理论对提高海军部队作战指挥效能具有参考价值。     

空天防御体系及技术发展

网络空间攻防技术对国家安全影响的地位日趋上升,已成为世界主要国家超前布局、优先发展的重要技术领域。文章系统梳理了主要国家在态势感知技术、攻击技术、防御技术、控制技术、支援保障技术等领域所取得重要进展和面临的问题,重点分析和前瞻了网络空间攻防技术发展的新趋势和新途径。     

入侵检测中频繁模式的有效挖掘算法

在基于数据挖掘的入侵检测系统中,为了在海量审计记录中有效地提取出相关规则,需要通过利用与入侵检测相关的特定领域知识。首先对关联规则挖掘问题中的相关概念给出几个规范化定义,介绍了基本的关联规则和情节规则挖掘算法,然后结合审计记录的特点,考虑其轴属性和参照属性以及规则兴趣度,对基本挖掘算法中的候选项目集产生函数进行了改进。分析结果表明,利用规则兴趣度能够大大减小候选项目集的大小,有效提高频繁模式挖掘算法的效率。     

机动目标建模及机动检测算法

为解决机动目标跟踪问题,建立了非机动(匀速直线运动)和机动目标当前统计两种动态模型,并对机动目标当前统计模型的输入控制的估计进行了适当改进.同时对非机动模型的观测残差和机动模型的输入估计进行检验,以便准确检测目标机动.     

信息管理误失灰色补偿方法

在信息采集、信息管理、信息传递过程中,数据链出现空穴、误传或丢失等情况时,将影响信息采集传递的安全性与信息管理的有效性,是信息管理与使用中一个值得关注的问题,如何对数据列进行有效补偿则是解决该问题的关键.运用灰色理论与正交试验设计方法建立了信息链缺失补偿模型并给出了信息链空穴补偿优化准则.所给出的具体的补偿实例说明信息链空穴灰色生成与正交试验设计生成是一种极为有效的信息缺失补偿方法.     

基于数据仓库的数据挖掘技术在指挥控制系统中的应用

介绍了数据仓库和数据挖掘的概念、数据挖掘的过程和方法,简单分析了现代战争中信息处理的特点和需求,阐述了数据挖掘在军事指挥控制系统中的应用必要性,提出了军事应用中数据挖掘系统的层次体系结构,并针对该层次体系结构进一步提出了指挥控制系统中数据挖掘技术的应用模型.     

一体化联合作战指挥信息流通体系逻辑结构分析

针对协同性联合作战向一体化联合作战转变对作战指挥产生的影响,在正确定位指挥信息流通体系的基础上,从一体化联合作战的本质特征及对指挥信息流通体系的影响出发,设计了基本作战单元指挥信息输入、输出模型,并通过将作战体系区分为四类模块,得出了指挥信息流通体系的逻辑结构.     

Efficient multinomial selection in simulation

Consider a simulation experiment consisting of v independent vector replications across k systems, where in any given replication one system is selected as the best performer (i.e., it wins). Each system has an unknown constant probability of winning in any replication and the numbers of wins for the individual systems follow a multinomial distribution. The classical multinomial selection procedure of Bechhofer, Elmaghraby, and Morse (Procedure BEM) prescribes a minimum number of replications, denoted as v*, so that the probability of correctly selecting the true best system (PCS) meets or exceeds a prespecified probability. Assuming that larger is better, Procedure BEM selects as best the system having the largest value of the performance measure in more replications than any other system. We use these same v* replications across k systems to form (v*)^k pseudoreplications that contain one observation from each system, and develop Procedure AVC (All Vector Comparisons) to achieve a higher PCS than with Procedure BEM. For specific small-sample cases and via a large-sample approximation we show that the PCS with Procedure AVC exceeds the PCS with Procedure BEM. We also show that with Procedure AVC we achieve a given PCS with a smaller v than the v* required with Procedure BEM. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 459–482, 1998     

Scheduling deteriorating jobs to minimize makespan

We consider a single-machine problem of scheduling n independent jobs to minimize makespan, in which the processing time of job J_j grows by w_j with each time unit its start is delayed beyond a given common critical date d. This processing time is p_j if J_j starts by d. We show that this problem is NP-hard, give a pseudopolynomial algorithm that runs in time and O(nd) space, and develop a branch-and-bound algorithm that solves instances with up to 100 jobs in a reasonable amount of time. We also introduce the case of bounded deterioration, where the processing time of a job grows no further if the job starts after a common maximum deterioration date D > d. For this case, we give two pseudopolynomial time algorithms: one runs in O(n²d(D − d) time and O(nd(D − d)) space, the other runs in p_j)²) time and p_j) space. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 511–523, 1998     

Estimating reliability of components with increasing failure rate using series system data

The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for a distribution function with increasing failure rate is derived, based on a collection of series system data. Applications can arise in industries where operating environments make available only such system-level data, due to system configuration or type-II censoring. The estimator can be solved using isotonic regression. For the special case in which systems contain one component, the estimator is equivalent to the restricted maximum likelihood estimator of Marshall and Proschan [9]. The MLE is illustrated using emergency diesel generator failure data from the nuclear industry. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 115–123, 1998