考虑有损伤测量条件下的设备剩余寿命的建模分析

在有损测量的情况下,仅从退化数据本身出发所建的模型不能反映设备的真实退化过程.尤其在测量导致的设备性能退化量不可忽略时,不考虑测量耗损量将不能有效进行预测和评估.为解决这个问题,首先基于维纳过程建立有损测量的设备退化过程,进一步给出了相应模型的参数估计方法和基于贝叶斯理论的设备剩余寿命的实时更新方法,最后通过一个仿真示...     

基于Petri网的雷达对抗仿真建模研究

针对雷达对抗的作战过程,引入Petri网的数学方法描述雷达对杭侦察、雷达干扰、雷达干扰效能评佑3个作战行动,将雷达对抗战术规则与Petri网的实施规则相关联,并选用有效策略解决冲突变迁,建立雷达对抗的Petri网模型,解决了雷达对抗仿真建模过程中对并行、异步和随机时间等复杂离散事件的描述问题.     

反导作战中多TBM威胁评估模型研究

威胁评估模型是反导指挥控制系统中的关键模型之一.在分析和研究反导作战指挥控制问题的基础上,重点对TBM威胁评估的影响因素进行了分析总结;对各级反导指挥控制系统的威胁评估模型中的异同点进行了对比分析.最后结合层次分析法的相关理论给出了战区级反导指控系统威胁评估模型的求解过程.该算法在指控系统仿真应用中取得了较好的效果.对后续反导作战指挥控制问题的研究具有很高的参考价值.     

一种通用网络通信系统的设计与实现

在TCP/IP协议的基础上,采用合理的软件结构、算法以及对同一主机的多网卡支持,设计了一种可应用于大型分布式处理(如分布式仿真)的多机通信系统,目标是屏蔽诸如IP地址、端口号、套接字等网络通信概念,实现一种通用的进行网络通信实时可靠传输的机制,避免类似程序的重复开发,使网络通信的实现更加容易。应用结果表明,系统使用容易、通用性强,实现了对通信服务的实时传输和可靠传输的支持。     

Exact expected values of variance estimators for simulation

We formulate exact expressions for the expected values of selected estimators of the variance parameter (that is, the sum of covariances at all lags) of a steady‐state simulation output process. Given in terms of the autocovariance function of the process, these expressions are derived for variance estimators based on the simulation analysis methods of nonoverlapping batch means, overlapping batch means, and standardized time series. Comparing estimator performance in a first‐order autoregressive process and the M/M/1 queue‐waiting‐time process, we find that certain standardized time series estimators outperform their competitors as the sample size becomes large. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Level product form QSF processes and an analysis of queues with Coxian interarrival distribution

In this article, we study a class of Quasi‐Skipfree (QSF) processes where the transition rate submatrices in the skipfree direction have a column times row structure. Under homogeneity and irreducibility assumptions we show that the stationary distributions of these processes have a product form as a function of the level. For an application, we will discuss the ‐queue that can be modeled as a QSF process on a two‐dimensional state space. In addition, we study the properties of the stationary distribution and derive monotonicity of the mean number of the customers in the queue, their mean sojourn time and the variance as a function of for fixed mean arrival rate. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logisticsxs 66:57–72, 2019