近地卫星Ka频段数传链路抗雨衰自适应模式设计

针对近地卫星数传时的信道时变性和严重的Ka频段雨衰现象,采用自适应编码调制(Adaptive Coding and Modulation, ACM)技术能够充分利用链路资源,相对于传统的固定编码调制方式,进一步提高链路的数据吞吐量。提出近地卫星Ka频段数传链路ACM模式设计方法,在降雨环境下建立Ka频段数传链路模型,根据链路预算的信道状况确定ACM选用模式;采用基于导频符号的最大似然信噪比估计算法结合移动平均的平滑方法实现信道估计,有效地减小了估计值的波动。仿真结果表明,无论晴天还是雨天,采用提出的卫星数传链路ACM模式设计方法,能够在保证系统可靠性的同时获取较高的数据吞吐量。     

Stage life testing

In progressive censoring, items are removed at certain times during the life test. Commonly, it is assumed that the removed items are used for further testing. In order to take into account information about these additional testing in inferential procedures, we propose a two‐step model of stage life testing with one fixed stage‐change time which incorporates information about both the removed items (further tested under different conditions) and those remaining in the current life test. We show that some marginal distributions in our model correspond either to progressive censoring with a fixed censoring time or to a simple‐step stress model. Furthermore, assuming a cumulative exposure model, we establish exact inferential results for the distribution parameters when the lifetimes are exponentially distributed. An extension to Weibull distributed lifetimes is also discussed.     

Pairwise model discrimination with applications in lifetime distributions and degradation processes

Reliability data obtained from life tests and degradation tests have been extensively used for purposes such as estimating product reliability and predicting warranty costs. When there is more than one candidate model, an important task is to discriminate between the models. In the literature, the model discrimination was often treated as a hypothesis test and a pairwise model discrimination procedure was carried out. Because the null distribution of the test statistic is unavailable in most cases, the large sample approximation and the bootstrap were frequently used to find the acceptance region of the test. Although these two methods are asymptotically accurate, their performance in terms of size and power is not satisfactory in small sample size. To enhance the small‐sample performance, we propose a new method to approximate the null distribution, which builds on the idea of generalized pivots. Conventionally, the generalized pivots were often used for interval estimation of a certain parameter or function of parameters in presence of nuisance parameters. In this study, we further extend the idea of generalized pivots to find the acceptance region of the model discrimination test. Through extensive simulations, we show that the proposed method performs better than the existing methods in discriminating between two lifetime distributions or two degradation models over a wide range of sample sizes. Two real examples are used to illustrate the proposed methods.     

高超声速滑翔导弹气动参数自适应跟踪建模

针对高超声速滑翔导弹跟踪中状态模型构建问题,研究基于制导变量变化规律的气动参数建模方法。对气动参数进行分析,指出传统建模方法的缺点。在假设制导变量服从一阶时滞过程的前提下,利用线性化的气动系数推导气动参数模型,通过分析不同飞行状态下的模型变式,证明模型对目标机动具有自适应性。对模型中未知参数的取值问题进行讨论,实现模型与飞行状态的自适应匹配。仿真结果表明：当目标发生机动时,所提模型性能明显优于传统模型。同时,在不同滤波器参数条件下的仿真结果进一步证实了模型的有效性。     

Vicarious warfare: The counterproductive consequences of modern American military practice

This article examines contemporary modes of American warfare. It posits the concept of “vicarious warfare” as a means of capturing prominent patterns in warfighting approaches. Although rooted in long-standing traditions of military practice, vicarious warfare is sufficiently novel as to be identifiable as a distinct phenomenon. The precise manifestation or combination of vicarious methods vary according to the specific circumstances and political contexts prevailing in different theaters. However, America’s general preference is to fight its wars by delegating tasks to proxies and limiting exposure of its own military to danger. Where U.S. forces are employed directly, this takes place largely in the shadows. Such approaches have clear attractions, offer undoubted tactical advantages, and permit successive administrations to maintain a persistent tempo of operations that evades rigorous democratic scrutiny. Yet, prominent cases and numerous studies suggest that vicarious warfare has a high potential to generate counterproductive effects and significant strategic harm.     

军事攻防中的多属性资源分配对策模型

针对资源受限情形下的两阶段攻防资源分配问题,提出一种基于多属性决策的资源分配对策模型。防守者首先将有限的防护资源分配到不同的目标上,继而进攻者选择一种威胁组合方式对目标实施打击。基于博弈论相关知识,模型的求解结果可以使防守者最小化自身损失,使进攻者最大化进攻收益。同时,针对模型的特点,给出了一些推论和证明。通过一个示例验证了模型的合理性以及相关推论的准确性,能够为攻、防双方规划决策提供辅助支持。     

低地球轨道卫星网络节能方法

通常卫星的唯一能源来源是太阳能,因此星上网络设备的能源供应问题比地面网络的更加严峻。通过修改和扩展链路容量受限的最小代价多商品流模型来适应卫星网络这一特殊的体系结构,并基于低轨道卫星网络的多重覆盖机制和流量分布模型,改进现有的启发式算法来关闭冗余的卫星节点、星地链路和星间链路。在满足链路利用率和路由跳数增加比例约束的条件下,仿真实验中关闭上述三种参数的比例分别可达59%、61%和72%,卫星网络的总体节能比例可达65%。     

基于截断函数的有限时间滑模控制方法

针对一类二阶不确定非线性系统的鲁棒控制问题,提出一种基于截断函数的有限时间滑模控制算法。该算法具有以下特点:系统状态可在期望的有限时刻收敛为零;受控系统对外部扰动和参数不确定性具有全局鲁棒特性;系统状态的动态响应可解析预测;通过选择不同的截断函数可以实现对控制器性能的调节。仿真结果验证了所提算法的有效性。     

基于故障树分析的航空装备体系结构贡献率评估方法

针对航空装备体系构成复杂的特点,将故障树分析引入航空装备体系结构贡献率评估问题,提出基于故障树分析的评估方法.从作战装备、信息支援装备和保障装备三个方面构建航空装备体系结构,建造航空装备体系结构故障树;采用底事件的关键重要度指标来计算航空装备的体系结构贡献率,建立基于关键重要度的航空装备体系结构贡献率评估模型;以某航空...     

Tripwires and free-riders: Do forward-deployed U.S. troops reduce the willingness of host-country citizens to fight for their country?

This article investigates the relationship between U.S. overseas troops and the willingness of the citizens of host states to fight for their country. The study joins the long-running debate about burden-sharing and free-riding among U.S. allies. Unlike most previous empirical studies, we focus on non-material or intangible measures of the underlying concepts. Our dependent variable estimates the proportion of citizens expressing a willingness to fight for their country. Scores at the aggregate-national as well as the individual level are shaped by the presence of U.S. military forces, which act as a “tripwire” signaling credible security commitments. This increases opportunities of (non-material) free-riding. We present both bivariate and multivariate analyses covering the period 1981–2014 to test this supposition. Findings indicate that once U.S. troop levels reach a certain threshold (between 100 and 500 troops), citizens’ willingness to fight drops significantly. This likely reflects non-material free-riding.