基于探雷信息的火箭深弹炸雷效能研究

针对火箭深弹传统炸雷方式中存在的盲目性、危险性及耗弹量大等问题,提出了火箭深弹与探雷声纳协同定点炸除水雷的方法,建立了基于随机模拟的火箭深弹炸雷效能评估模型。实例解算结果表明,火箭深弹对水雷毁伤概率随着射距的增加而增大;在同一射距下,毁伤概率随射向与探测方向夹角的增加而增大,但在最优(大)夹角附近毁伤概率变化不大。通过该模型能有效解算出火箭深弹对水雷的毁伤效果,进而得到最优射击诸元和最大毁伤概率,对火箭深弹炸雷技术实施提供了理论基础。     

Vertically restrictive pricing in supply chains with price‐dependent demand

We examine the behavior of a manufacturer and a retailer in a decentralized supply chain under price‐dependent, stochastic demand. We model a retail fixed markup (RFM) policy, which can arise as a form of vertically restrictive pricing in a supply chain, and we examine its effect on supply chain performance. We prove the existence of the optimal pricing and replenishment policies when demand has a linear additive form and the distribution of the uncertainty component has a nondecreasing failure rate. We numerically compare the relative performance of RFM to a price‐only contract and we find that RFM results in greater profit for the supply chain than the price‐only contract in a variety of scenarios. We find that RFM can lead to Pareto‐improving solutions where both the supplier and the retailer earn more profit than under a price‐only contract. Finally, we compare RFM to a buyback contract and explore the implications of allowing the fixed markup parameter to be endogenous to the model. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006.     

An EOQ model with multiple suppliers and random capacity

We consider an EOQ model with multiple suppliers that have random capacities, which leads to uncertain yield in orders. A given order is fully received from a supplier if the order quantity is less than the supplier's capacity; otherwise, the quantity received is equal to the available capacity. The optimal order quantities for the suppliers can be obtained as the unique solution of an implicit set of equations in which the expected unsatisfied order is the same for each supplier. Further characterizations and properties are obtained for the uniform and exponential capacity cases with discussions on the issues related to diversification among suppliers. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

基于随机有限集理论的多传感器目标联合检测跟踪算法

针对杂波环境中的目标检测跟踪问题,提出一种基于随机有限集理论的多传感器目标联合检测跟踪算法。算法将目标状态和量测描述为随机集合,建立考虑目标出现、目标保持、目标消失等情况的目标状态随机有限集模型,以及考虑漏检和虚警的多传感器量测随机有限集模型。将目标的联合检测跟踪问题构建为目标状态集合的贝叶斯最优估计问题,并基于随机有限集理论对该贝叶斯估计算法的递推表达式进行严格理论推导。采用序贯蒙特卡罗技术实现算法的递推滤波。仿真结果验证了该算法的有效性以及算法相对于传统基于数据关联算法的性能优势。     

广生灭过程的积分型随机泛函

讨论了广生灭过程的积分型随机泛函的概率分布，给出了分布的拉氏变换所满足的差分方程，且求出了它们的解     

采用随机矩阵理论的水声阵列SMI-MVDR空间谱估计技术

对角加载MVDR技术是一种经典的空间谱估计技术,在水声阵列信号处理中有着广泛的应用。该技术之所以具有较好的性能是由于其通过对角加载使样本协方差矩阵的特征值分散度减小。提出了基于随机矩阵理论的MVDR空间谱估计技术,具体思路是利用随机矩阵特征值的极限性质实现样本协方差矩阵噪声的抑制,以达到类似对角加载能够实现的特征值分散度减小的效果。仿真表明所提出的方法与对角加载方法达到了同样的目的,且当快拍数一定,而信噪比由小变大时,该方法可以达到与对角加载MVDR技术相当的性能;当信噪比设为定值,快拍数由小变大时,其与对角加载技术具有相同的DOA估计成功概率变化趋势,且在小样本情况下,此方法优势较为明显。     

应急航材配送网络需求缓冲策略设计

航空装备是空军武器装备的主体,做好航材保障工作对于充分发挥装备作战效能,确保装备的作战使用具有重要意义。描述了应急需求冲击条件下缓冲控制问题,建立了应急航材配送网络影响缓存因素模型,进而建立了完整的应急航材需求冲击的缓冲策略设计框架,并进行了应急航材缓存分配建模。分别采用BP-GA方法对应急航材需求进行测算;保噪正态分布进行了缓冲策略公式的推演,需求冲能模型进行了单个缓存分配,并结合算例说明了其有效性。     

同类防空武器多层防御部署分析

在现代防空中,经常是防空武器多层部署进行防空,故需要对防空武器多层防御部署进行分析.针对同类防空武器多层防御部署的问题,运用排队论,建立了防御体系射击效能的数学模型.按照模型,通过实验仿真,对计算得到的实验数据进行分析,推测出同类防空武器的部署规律,并对防御体系应部署的适宜层数进行了一定的讨论.通过理论推导,证明了部署规律的正确性.最后建立了需求分析模型,运用部署规律对模型进行求解,通过对实例进行计算,给出了求解的基本步骤.     

Inventory competition with yield reliability improvement

This article studies the inventory competition under yield uncertainty. Two firms with random yield compete for substitutable demand: If one firm suffers a stockout, which can be caused by yield failure, its unsatisfied customers may switch to its competitor. We first study the case in which two competing firms decide order quantities based on the exogenous reliability levels. The results from the traditional inventory competition are generalized to the case with yield uncertainty and we find that quantity and reliability can be complementary instruments in the competition. Furthermore, we allow the firms to endogenously improve their yield reliability before competing in quantity. We show that the reliability game is submodular under some assumptions. The results indicate that the competition in quantity can discourage the reliability improvement. With an extensive numerical study, we also demonstrate the robustness of our analytical results in more general settings. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 107–126, 2015     

利用验前信息的一种序贯检验方法——序贯验后加权检验方法

序贯验后加权检验方法是Bayes 统计观点在假设检验中的运用。本文提出了该方法的一般理论,给出了当总体的分布参数具有验前信息时的序贯检验方法。文中确定了决策区的划分,同时讨论了序贯截尾方案,给出了检验中可能犯两类错误的概率的上界,并将一般理论应用于产品的可靠性检验和再入飞行器随机落点的精度鉴定。由于运用了验前信息,因此能有效地在少量试验之下进行统计假设检验。本文所提供的方法对于昂贵产品试验结果的统计评定具有普遍意义。