Attrition through a partially coordinated area defense

An area defense consists of several groups that act independently, i.e., do not communicate with each other. Each group has a fixed number of defenders and a controller that allocates these defenders optimally against the individual attackers comprising an attack. We analyze the effectiveness of this partially coordinated defense against a simultaneous attack of known size in which all attackers are considered to be equally lethal. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

A continuous‐time strategic capacity planning model

Capacity planning decisions affect a significant portion of future revenue. In the semiconductor industry, they need to be made in the presence of both highly volatile demand and long capacity installation lead‐times. In contrast to traditional discrete‐time models, we present a continuous‐time stochastic programming model for multiple resource types and product families. We show how this approach can solve capacity planning problems of reasonable size and complexity with provable efficiency. This is achieved by an application of the divide‐and‐conquer algorithm, convexity, submodularity, and the open‐pit mining problem. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

基于群决策和QFD的型号装备作战需求论证方法

通过研究定性问题的定量化处理方法和2类关键模型,提出了基于群决策和QFD的型号装备作战需求论证方法,阐述了方法的基本流程,构建了方法应用的数学模型,在一定程度上解决了需求论证中＂定量方法不足,需求论证不清＂的难题,为型号装备立项综合论证提供了方法支撑。     

装备需求工作的发展历程

将装备需求工作的发展历程划分为4个主要阶段,详细阐述了各阶段装备需求工作活动的主要内容、方式和特点。指出正确划分装备需求工作发展历程对于认识该项工作的基本规律、完善当代的装备需求工程学科理论体系十分有益。     

Demand forecasting by temporal aggregation

Demand forecasting performance is subject to the uncertainty underlying the time series an organization is dealing with. There are many approaches that may be used to reduce uncertainty and thus to improve forecasting performance. One intuitively appealing such approach is to aggregate demand in lower‐frequency “time buckets.” The approach under concern is termed to as temporal aggregation, and in this article, we investigate its impact on forecasting performance. We assume that the nonaggregated demand follows either a moving average process of order one or a first‐order autoregressive process and a single exponential smoothing (SES) procedure is used to forecast demand. These demand processes are often encountered in practice and SES is one of the standard estimators used in industry. Theoretical mean‐squared error expressions are derived for the aggregated and nonaggregated demand to contrast the relevant forecasting performances. The theoretical analysis is supported by an extensive numerical investigation and experimentation with an empirical dataset. The results indicate that performance improvements achieved through the aggregation approach are a function of the aggregation level, the smoothing constant, and the process parameters. Valuable insights are offered to practitioners and the article closes with an agenda for further research in this area. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 479–498, 2013     

Some aspects in estimating warranty and post‐warranty repair demands

When customers buy a product, they are often eligible for free repairs for a certain warranty period. In this article, we study some important aspects, which are often overlooked in the literature but are of interest to the manufacturer, in estimating both warranty and post‐warranty repair demands. We consider that the installed base of the product (i.e., the number of units of the product actually in use) varies with time due to both new sales and units being taken out of service. When estimating warranty and post‐warranty repair demands, we explicitly address the fact that customers may not always request repairs for failed units. For the case where the product failure time distribution is exponential, we derive the closed‐form expressions for both types of repair demands of a single unit and of the time‐varying installed base. The insights into some risk‐related quantities are also presented. Furthermore, the proposed model is extended by considering delayed warranty claims that are frequently seen in practice. Numerical examples illustrate that understanding both types of repair demands and the related decision variables is important for managing the obligatory and profitable repair services. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 499–511, 2013     

面向需求变化的军队自动化立体仓库货位优化

为提高军队自动化立体仓库的出库能力,提出应根据需求变化对在库物资货位进行动态调整,从而最大限度地保障军队物资需求。综合考虑堆垛机总行程、货物离散度和出库频率等评价指标,采用遗传算法对该多目标优化问题进行求解,并运用Matalab仿真。结果表明,该方法能较好地提高军队自动化立体仓库在需求动态变化时的出库能力。同时,该研究对一般仓库的货位优化也有一定的借鉴意义。     

基于备件需求预测的两步法理论

在对备件需求时间序列研究的基础上,结合指数平滑法和Croston法的特点,分析了指数平滑法与两步法的原理,通过对指数平滑法和两步法方差的研究,得到两步法是指数平滑法的一般形式的结论,为两步法的进一步研究提供一定的理论支撑。     

一类装甲车辆对不平路面的激励响应模型

研究内容为(轮式、履带)车辆在不平路面行驶和通过障碍时的平顺性问题。利用状态方程法建立了包括随机和确定路面轮廓、3维车体等较为通用的车辆行驶平顺性模型。并针对行驶振动中车轮与悬架的碰撞建立了专门模型。对某型装甲车辆进行了计算机仿真和验证,对模型的精度和有效性进行检验和评估。结果表明所建立的车辆-地面系统模型是有效的。该模型和建模采用的方法为装甲车辆的系统设计和动力学分析提供了一条途径。     

基于排队论的反舰导弹突防概率研究

根据水面舰艇对海导弹攻击中作战指挥的需要,提出了基于排队论中随机服务理论的反舰导弹突防概率解算模型.综合研究了目标舰艇编队采用各种手段进行抗击帮助条件下,反舰导弹突防概率的计算问题,并且结合想定装备参数进行了算例分析.为指挥员实施导弹攻击提供辅助决策和量化支持.