Impact of reseller's and sales agent's forecasting accuracy in a multilayer supply chain

We consider a three‐layer supply chain with a manufacturer, a reseller, and a sales agent. The demand is stochastically determined by the random market condition and the sales agent's private effort level. Although the manufacturer is uninformed about the market condition, the reseller and the sales agent conduct demand forecasting and generate private demand signals. Under this framework with two levels of adverse selection intertwined with moral hazard, we study the impact of the reseller's and the sales agent's forecasting accuracy on the profitability of each member. We show that the manufacturer's profitability is convex on the reseller's forecasting accuracy. From the manufacturer's perspective, typically improving the reseller's accuracy is detrimental when the accuracy is low but is beneficial when it is high. We identify the concrete interrelation among the manufacturer‐optimal reseller's accuracy, the volatility of the market condition, and the sales agent's accuracy. Finally, the manufacturer's interest may be aligned with the reseller's when only the reseller can choose her accuracy; this alignment is never possible when both downstream players have the discretion to choose their accuracy. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 207–222, 2014     

舰炮火控雷达实测误差时序特性分析建模

针对舰炮火控雷达高精度实时仿真建模的问题,运用高斯分布和正态平稳过程的两种误差序列生成方法,建立火控雷达简化仿真模型。通过对某火控雷达实测数据误差的统计及时序相关性分析,完成误差序列仿真生成与验证,给出了实现舰炮火控雷达探测误差仿真的优选方法。实践证明,正态平稳模型的误差生成方法可以有效满足新型舰炮仿真试验火控雷达建模要求。     

基于维修器材离散随机需求最佳库存量确定研究

结合装备维修器材保障工作,就维修器材离散随机需求最佳库存量确定进行研究,对其建模进行系统分析,结合修理厂维修器材最佳库存量进行实例计算,以指导维修器材最佳库存量的确定.     

THE PEACE DIVIDEND EFFECT OF TURKISH CONVERGENCE TO THE EU: A MULTI‐REGION DYNAMIC CGE MODEL ANALYSIS FOR GREECE AND TURKEY

This paper examines the peace dividend effect of Turkish convergence to EU membership. By employing a multi‐region dynamic CGE model, we examine the prospect for conflict resolution if Turkey becomes an EU member. The model allows us to analyse several scenarios that imply varying amounts of reduction of the military expenditure/GDP ratios. On the one hand, this change will cause a decrease in sectoral demand for military expenditures, while on the other hand, reallocation of the reduced expenditure on (i) education, (ii) tax decrease, and (iii) infrastructure, should have a huge growth impact. Our dynamic CGE simulation experiments emphasize the economic gain for all parties involved.     

On lifetimes in random environments

For a component operating in random environment, whose hazard rate is assumed to be the realization of a suitable increasing stochastic process, conditions are found such that its lifetime is increasing in likelihood ratio (ILR). For the lifetimes of two components of the same kind some comparisons based on partial stochastic orders are presented. Some applications to the case of repairable components are finally provided. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 365–375, 1998     

基于随机森林的重要性测度指标体系

重要性测度分析可以找出重要特征变量,从而降低输入空间的维数,节约运算成本.基于随机森林重要性测度的分析原理,探寻随机森林的重要性测度指标与基于方差的全局灵敏度指标之间的联系,得到求解方差灵敏度主指标Si及其总指标STi的新途径.建立基于随机森林的单变量、组变量重要性测度指标,并明确具体的求解过程,完善基于随机森林的重要...     

非椭圆扩展目标联合跟踪与分类算法

充分利用目标尺寸和形状信息,提出了一种基于星凸随机超曲面模型(random hypersurface model, RHM)的非椭圆扩展目标联合跟踪与分类(joint tracking and classification, JTC)算法。将目标空间扩展状态建模为星凸形状,通过目标类别相关先验信息的矢量化建模,建立起其与目标瞬时扩展状态的关系,并在统一的贝叶斯滤波框架下,实现跟踪与分类的一体化处理;进一步对目标运动学状态和扩展状态单独进行建模,并通过构建扩展状态的似然函数,利用粒子滤波实现目标类别概率算式的递推处理。仿真结果表明:与基于椭圆形状的扩展目标JTC算法相比,所提算法能对尺寸相近、形状不同的目标进行准确分类,同时可改善目标状态的估计效果;与基于星凸RHM的扩展目标跟踪算法相比,所提算法能大幅提高目标状态的估计性能。     

区域目标搜索中基于改进RRT的UAV实时航迹规划

在线自主航迹规划是无人机(Unmanned Aerial Vehicles,UAV)执行区域目标搜索任务的有效保证.针对UAV区域搜索中航迹规划的实时性要求,提出了一种固定搜索模式和动态搜索模式相结合的UAV自主航迹规划框架.在快速扩展随机树(RRT)方法的基础上,通过改进随机扩展树的节点选择和引入启发式信息,提出了基于改进RRT的UAV实时搜索航迹规划算法,该算法能够有效降低在线航迹规划的时间代价和扩展节点数.仿真实验结果验证了本文方法的有效性.     

65纳米工艺双层三维静态存储器的软错误分析与评估

首先搭建了3D SRAM软错误分析平台,可以快速、自动分析多层die堆叠结构3D SRAM的软错误特性。此平台集成了多种层次模拟软件Geant4、TCAD、Nanosim,数据记录处理软件ROOT,版图处理软件Calibre,以及用于任务链接和结果分析的Perl和shell脚本。利用该平台,对以字线划分设计的3D SRAM和同等规模的2D SRAM分别进行软错误分析,并对分析结果进行了对比。对比分析表明2D 和3D SRAM的翻转截面几乎相同,但3D SRAM单个字中发生的软错误要比2D SRAM更严重,导致难以使用ECC技术对其进行加固。静态模式下2D SRAM和3D SRAM敏感节点均分布于存储阵列中,表明静态模式下逻辑电路不会引发软错误。     

浮空器气体混充定高建模与仿真

依据浮空器浮重平衡特性以及理想气体状态方程,探索了一种气体混充控制浮空器平飞高度的定高方式,并对浮空器气体混充定高技术进行了总体设计研究。考虑到热力学特性对于浮空器上升过程和平飞过程的重要性,结合工程热力学中混充气体的热物性能,以超压气球作为研究对象,分析球体上升和平飞过程中的热环境,并与动力学模型进行耦合。在此基础上,对混充气球上升及平飞过程进行力学仿真,得到气球上升过程中高度、速度、气体温度以及压强的变化,验证了浮空器混充定高技术的可行性,为后续浮空器飞行试验提供指导。