The impact of demand uncertainty on product line design under endogenous substitution

The existing product line design literature devotes little attention to the effect of demand uncertainty. Due to demand uncertainty, the supply‐demand mismatch is inevitable which leads to different degrees of lost sales depending on the configuration of product lines. In this article, we adopt a stylized two‐segment setup with uncertain market sizes and illustrate the interplay between two effects: risk pooling that mitigates the impact of demand uncertainty and market segmentation that facilitates consumer differentiation. Compared to downward substitution, inducing bidirectional substitution through product line decisions including quality levels and prices can yield greater risk pooling effects. However, we show that the additional benefit from the risk pooling effect cannot compensate for the reduced market segmentation effect. We demonstrate that the presence of demand uncertainty can reduce the benefit of market segmentation and therefore the length of product lines in terms of the difference between products. We also propose three heuristics that separate product line and production decisions; each of these heuristics corresponds to one particular form of demand substitution. Our numerical studies indicate that the best of the three heuristics yields performance that is close to optimality. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 143–157, 2015     

多点源交叉波束干涉效应特征分析

介绍多点源交叉波束通过干涉效应实现交汇空间功率合成的基本原理,根据空间功率合成机理,建立对功率合成效率、同相叠加点间距的计算机仿真,完成多点源交叉波束干涉效应特征分析,以此作为多点源交叉波束空间功率合成的评估依据。     

任意分布随机数的FPGA实现

为了满足数字电路板的随机测试需求,在Simulink/DSP Builder中建立了产生任意分布随机数的模型,并在FPGA上进行了半实物仿真和性能分析,结果表明该模型达到了设计要求,具有实用价值。     

How and why Boko Haram blossomed: examining the fatal consequences of treating a purposive terrorist organisation as less so

Boko Haram (BH) is an insurgent group that operates mainly in northeastern Nigeria. Its stated aim is to establish an Islamic state, and it employs terrorism as its strategy. Earlier interests of security analysts centred on the drivers of BH uprising and the possibility of its internationalisation. Today's concerns relate more to why the rebellion has lasted this long. In toeing the same line, this article demonstrates that BH is a purposive terror group against which the government has evolved no viable strategy. It examines some gains of BH over the past six years and how it benefitted from the government's underestimation of its capacity and determination. It concludes that to effectively engage BH, the Nigerian government must revaluate its threat and sincerely pursue an expanded strategy beyond the current military-centric approach. To be effective, government's response must be packaged in such a way as to enhance human security in the region.     

震灾应急物资动态需求预测模型研究

为提高应急物资需求预测方法的实用性,同时考虑提前期和需求的不确定性,采用安全库存理论构建震灾应急物资动态需求预测模型,以观测得到的实际到货量、实际消耗量和实时剩余库存量等信息来动态预测当前时刻应急物资的需求量。应用算例表明,所建模型不仅能够准确反映需求量与被保障人员总数的正相关关系,而且还能实时体现被保障人员总数的变化情况。因此,该模型能够为震灾过程中应急物资需求量的确定提供科学决策依据,具有一定的实用价值和应用前景。     

无动力运载器出水过程误差分析

无动力运载器在出水过程中受海浪的扰动作用,运动参数会产生一定的偏差。针对海浪随机性的特点,应用波能谱理论,在P-M谱基础上构建了随机海浪模型,并使用四元数法建立运载器水弹道数学模型,解决了运载器垂直出水姿态角存在的奇异性问题,通过采用二元切片法给出波浪力的计算公式。最终在Matlab/Simulink仿真工具箱下建立了运载器仿真模型,就不同海况与主浪向角影响下运载器出水的运动参数偏差进行了仿真计算,分析了其变化规律。仿真结果表明,运载器在4级海况以下各项运动参数都满足出水要求,对运载器的设计与使用具有一定的参考意义。     

日本防卫产业发展潜力问题分析

日本自卫队追求能力提升和活动范围扩大的努力受到其防卫产业发展的局限。防卫预算的有限直接导致防卫产业的市场规模狭小。部分核心技术自主研发的缺失限制了防卫产业独立发展的能力。融合式发展模式在成本核算、劳动生产率提升和产业发展稳定性等方面限制了防卫产业发展的潜力。     

A note on the forecast performance of temporal aggregation

Earlier research on the effects of nonoverlapping temporal aggregation on demand forecasting showed the benefits associated with such an approach under a stationary AR(1) or MA(1) processes for decision making conducted at the disaggregate level. The first objective of this note is to extend those important results by considering a more general underlying demand process. The second objective is to assess the conditions under which aggregation may be a preferable approach for improving decision making at the aggregate level as well. We confirm the validity of previous results under more general conditions, and we show the increased benefit resulting from forecasting by temporal aggregation at lower frequency time units. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 489–500, 2014     

随机脉宽调制的Simulink仿真研究

应用Matlab仿真平台,开发了随机脉宽调制的Simulink仿真文件,运用此仿真文件,研究了逆变器的谐波能量分布随随机增益变化的规律,仿真结果有助于实际装置的研制。     

变异系数在可靠性中的应用

对使用变异系数描述随机变量的离散程度进行分析,推导了可靠性工程中常用的4种概率分布的变异系数与分布参数之间的关系.以机械产品整机及其零部件不同失效模式的寿命变异系数的取值范围为实例,说明了变异系数在可靠性工程中的应用.