静止无功补偿器的串联补偿控制

通过建立串联补偿装置的数学模型,给出了主要环节的参数设计原则和一种适合不对称控制的快速系统负序电压检测方法.利用串联补偿控制方法解决StatCom在系统不对称条件下的运行问题.仿真结果证明了所提方案的可行性和有效性.     

Fuzzy-AHP法在潜射巡航导弹命中概率分析中的应用

为准确评价潜射巡航导弹的命中概率,对影响命中概率的因素进行了具体分析,建立了潜射巡航导弹命中概率综合评价的指标体系.应用模糊综合评判及层次分析法,给出了综合评价的数学模型.对算例的仿真计算,得出了较为可信的结果.结果表明应用此方法,可以更准确的对潜射巡航导弹的命中概率进行评估,为潜射巡航导弹的研发及使用保障提供决策参考.     

动能拦截器姿控固体小火箭点火算法设计

使用固体姿控小火箭是实现动能拦截器快响应和高精度姿态控制的最佳方案之一。针对一种新型动能拦截器姿控小火箭布局,提出了点火组合混合搜索算法。描述了动能拦截器姿控小火箭的配置方案,分析了弹体自旋需求。设计了一种结合目标排序法和区间搜索法的点火组合混合搜索算法:当可用小火箭个数较少时,采用目标排序法;当可用小火箭个数较多时,采用区间搜索法。指令力矩近似仿真结果及姿态控制数值仿真结果表明:该算法能够有效地近似指令力矩,实现快速高精度的姿态跟踪。     

Optimal replacement of continuously degrading systems in partially observed environments

Motivated by wind energy applications, we consider the problem of optimally replacing a stochastically degrading component that resides and operates in a partially observable environment. The component's rate of degradation is modulated by the stochastic environment process, and the component fails when it is accumulated degradation first reaches a fixed threshold. Assuming periodic inspection of the component, the objective is to minimize the long‐run average cost per unit time of performing preventive and reactive replacements for two distinct cases. The first case examines instantaneous replacements and fixed costs, while the second considers time‐consuming replacements and revenue losses accrued during periods of unavailability. Formulated and solved are mixed state space, partially observable Markov decision process models, both of which reveal the optimality of environment‐dependent threshold policies with respect to the component's cumulative degradation level. Additionally, it is shown that for each degradation value, a threshold policy with respect to the environment belief state is optimal if the environment alternates between two states. The threshold policies are illustrated by way of numerical examples using both synthetic and real wind turbine data. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 395–415, 2015     

Progressive Type‐II censoring and coherent systems

A new connection between the distribution of component failure times of a coherent system and (adaptive) progressively Type‐II censored order statistics is established. Utilizing this property, we develop inferential procedures when the data is given by all component failures until system failure in two scenarios: In the case of complete information, we assume that the failed component is also observed whereas in the case of incomplete information, we have only information about the failure times but not about the components which have failed. In the first setting, we show that inferential methods for adaptive progressively Type‐II censored data can directly be applied to the problem. For incomplete information, we face the problem that the corresponding censoring plan is not observed and that the available inferential procedures depend on the knowledge of the used censoring plan. To get estimates for distributional parameters, we propose maximum likelihood estimators which can be obtained by solving the likelihood equations directly or via an Expectation‐Maximization‐algorithm type procedure. For an exponential distribution, we discuss also a linear estimator to estimate the mean. Moreover, we establish exact distributions for some estimators in the exponential case which can be used, for example, to construct exact confidence intervals. The results are illustrated by a five component bridge system. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 512–530, 2015     

Beyond Pessimism: Why the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Will Not Collapse

This article questions the predominantly pessimistic assessments over the future of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). After analysing available evidence on states’ interests and interactions within the NPT’s framework, it argues that several negative expectations are unwarranted. Conversely, the article identifies three potentially threatening scenarios. Therefore, it scrutinizes the likely impact of reactive nuclear proliferation; analyses the probability of significant actors challenging the existent nuclear architecture; and explores whether the treaty’s enforcement might soon be diluted. The article concludes the NPT is unlikely to face fundamental threats in the foreseeable future.     

基于粒子群优化算法的平流层飞艇总体设计

平流层飞艇总重最小化能一定程度上反映总费用最低的设计目标,满足有效载荷功率需求是飞艇总体设计的出发点和落脚点。本文在飞艇参数建模中引入了太阳电池曲面铺装模型以及昼夜能源闭环模型;以整艇重量最小为设计目标,以昼夜能源供需平衡、浮重平衡、推阻平衡三大平衡问题为约束条件,运用粒子群优化（PSO）算法对飞艇的外形尺寸参数进行优化设计;分析了有效载荷功率需求和功率密度对于飞艇总体设计结果的敏感性。分析结果表明：（1）飞艇总重随有效载荷功率线性增加;（2）飞艇总重随有效载荷功率密度增加而迅速减小,但变化率逐渐变小,飞艇总重趋于稳定。最后,能源系统仿真的结果表明了飞艇总体设计方法的有效性和设计结果的临界特性。     

浮球式惯性平台连续翻滚自标定自对准方法

针对浮球式惯性平台系统的标定与初始对准问题,提出了一种基于姿态角的连续翻滚自标定自对准方法。根据浮球平台工作原理,建立了惯性器件误差模型,推导了浮球平台的姿态动力学方程;设计了平台在重力场连续翻滚的施矩方案;利用分段线性定常系统和输出灵敏度理论分析了系统的可观性。仿真结果表明,该方法可以同时实现平台系统42项误差系数的高精度标定与初始对准,有效地提高了系统的测量精度。     

某越野火箭炮行驶垂向动态特性研究

以某型高机动越野火箭炮为研究对象,基于随机路面激励,应用多刚体系统动力学和柔性多体动力学的理论,建立该越野火箭炮刚柔耦合模型,研究其行驶垂向动力学特性。考虑了油气弹簧的非线性特性以及轮胎的作用,重点编写了B、C、D级路面的随机路面谱,进行不同车速下的行驶动力学仿真。结果表明,非线性的油气悬架系统能较好地减轻路面的垂向冲击。仿真得到的车炮动态响应特性曲线,为该高机动火箭炮的研制提供了有用的参考。     

一种基于随机波形分段相位编码调制的反侦察技术

为了提高雷达的隐蔽性能,降低被截获的概率,通常有很多种手段。在波形设计上,常见的是采用低截获概率(LPI)雷达信号,但常规的LPI信号仍然是有规律的信号,提出了一种基于随机波形分段相位编码调制的技术,使得脉冲的波形具有噪声特征,有较强的伪装效果,从而大大降低截获概率,仿真表明,这种设计技术具有良好的性能。