模糊识别和随机森林算法在柴油机振动信号状态识别中的应用

针对模糊识别算法中,样本特征向量中各参量(分量)对状态分类的贡献权重难以确定的问题,提出了利用随机森林算法对特征参量的重要度评估结果作为特征权重的方法。通过对柴油机台架试验振动信号的跟踪分析,获得了柴油机在磨合期、100摩托小时、200摩托小时、300摩托小时及400摩托小时5种不同使用期(典型状态)的75个振动信号样本,然后计算出各类样本在幅域、时域和频域的特征参量,利用随机森林算法进行特征选择,确定4个重要特征参量及其权重,用统计方法得出其隶属度函数,最后根据评价向量对样本进行识别,识别准确率达到94%以上。     

一种基于灰关联分析的QoS服务选择方法

随着网络中可供选择QoS服务日益增多,在用户请求服务时,为了确保用户获得满足其功能与QoS要求的服务,提出了一种基于灰关联分析的QoS服务选择方法,根据用户对网络服务的QoS需求估计各项QoS指标的主观权重,以用户的偏好感知作为服务选择的约束条件;基于候选服务集合构建候选服务决策矩阵,采用灰关联分析方法从中获得用户QoS满意度最高的服务。仿真和分析表明,该服务选择策略能为服务质量敏感的用户提供有效的满足QoS需求的服务方案。     

Optimal staffing in nonstationary service centers with constraints

This paper considers optimal staffing in service centers. We construct models for profit and cost centers using dynamic rate queues. To allow for practical optimal controls, we approximate the queueing process using a Gaussian random variable with equal mean and variance. We then appeal to the Pontryagin's maximum principle to derive a closed form square root staffing (SRS) rule for optimal staffing. Unlike most traditional SRS formulas, the main parameter in our formula is not the probability of delay but rather a cost‐to‐benefit ratio that depends on the shadow price. We show that the delay experienced by customers can be interpreted in terms of this ratio. Throughout the article, we provide theoretical support of our analysis and conduct extensive numerical experiments to reinforce our findings. To this end, various scenarios are considered to evaluate the change in the staffing levels as the cost‐to‐benefit ratio changes. We also assess the change in the service grade and the effects of a service‐level agreement constraint. Our analysis indicates that the variation in the ratio of customer abandonment over service rate particularly influences staffing levels and can lead to drastically different policies between profit and cost service centers. Our main contribution is the introduction of new analysis and managerial insights into the nonstationary optimal staffing of service centers, especially when the objective is to maximize profitability. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 615–630, 2017     

Moving Beyond Population-Centric vs. Enemy-Centric Counterinsurgency

Historically, insurgency is one of the most prevalent forms of armed conflict and it is likely to remain common in the foreseeable future. Recent experiences with counterinsurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan offer many lessons for future counterinsurgents, but the discourse on the subject continues to be mired in a traditional dichotomy pitting population-centric approaches to counterinsurgency against enemy-centric approaches. Historical analysis suggests that this traditional dichotomy is not a sufficiently nuanced way to understand or plan for such operations. Instead, discussions of counterinsurgency should focus on two dimensions: actions (use of physical force vs. political or moral actions) and targets (active insurgents vs. insurgent support). This perspective divides the space of possible counterinsurgency efforts into four quadrants, suggesting that effective counterinsurgency campaigns find a balance of effort across the four quadrants that is well matched to the specific context.     

钢球侵彻不同靶标的相似性分析

为研究相同弹丸侵彻不同靶标所造成损伤之间的相似性,以钢球侵彻明胶造成的瞬时空腔的最大直径为研究对象,基于相似理论推导出瞬时空腔最大直径的相似准则方程,利用钢球侵彻明胶的实验数据求解出准则方程的系数和指数,最后通过钢球侵彻猪后腿实验验证了所得到的准则方程可用于不同靶标之间的相似性分析,并具有准确性和合理性。     

层间接触与弹性模量对某导弹场坪动载的影响

为了研究某型导弹典型公路发射场坪沉降量和受力状态,利用混凝土塑性损伤模型建立某导弹无依托发射场坪有限元模型,在选取30种典型路面结构的基础上,分析了土基层弹性模量和面层与基层间黏结状况两个因素对路面动载响应的影响。结果表明:层间接触不良会导致路面弯沉、剪应力变大。同时得出该型导弹发射道路土基层弹性模量应大于20 MPa。研究结果对于评估导弹无依托发射生存能力和快速反应能力提供参考依据。     

Rose-tinted lenses: how American functionalist strategy inhibits our appreciation of complex conflicts

Strategists and military professionals have previously questioned many of the methodological (theoretical underpinnings, the principles, and rules applied by the discipline) decisions associated with American military strategy, but the direction this essay takes is above and beyond the common methodological rivalries in how we pursue strategic desired future states. To get beyond methodological disputes entirely, we must consider thinking about our thinking as an organization on American strategy. Thus, this article hovers between philosophies, organizational theory, as well as our usually unquestioned belief in something called “strategy”. Questioning things about our basic understanding of the world tends to trigger strong organizational defense mechanisms, for good reason. Critical reflection at deep levels puts our worldview, and our role within it at stake. Nonetheless, as strategic disappointment emerges over multiple complex conflict developments, even the most cherished and guarded choices on how the world ought to work are ripe for critical inquiry. This essay examines the limited single strategic paradigm of the US defense industry and how the latest American National Security Strategy and Army Future Operating Concept (Win in a Complex World through 2030) presents a flawed strategic position. This essay presents valid alternative strategies that operate within different paradigmatic constructs.     

‘Look like the innocent flower,but be the serpent under’t’: mimicking behaviour of growth-oriented terrorist organizations

This paper examines the interaction between a growth-oriented terrorist organization and an uninformed government based on a two-period signalling game. Combining the signalling game and organizational growth approaches of previous contributions, this paper shows that, if a terrorist group follows a growth strategy, it has an incentive to appear weaker than it is by mimicking the behaviour of a smaller organization. Depending on its beliefs about the extent of the terrorist threat, it can be optimal for a government to spend more on second-period counter-terrorism measures if it is not attacked in the first period than if it were attacked.     

An application of yield management for Internet Service Providers

In this paper we study strategies for better utilizing the network capacity of Internet Service Providers (ISPs) when they are faced with stochastic and dynamic arrivals and departures of customers attempting to log‐on or log‐off, respectively. We propose a method in which, depending on the number of modems available, and the arrival and departure rates of different classes of customers, a decision is made whether to accept or reject a log‐on request. The problem is formulated as a continuous time Markov Decision Process for which optimal policies can be readily derived using techniques such as value iteration. This decision maximizes the discounted value to ISPs while improving service levels for higher class customers. The methodology is similar to yield management techniques successfully used in airlines, hotels, etc. However, there are sufficient differences, such as no predefined time horizon or reservations, that make this model interesting to pursue and challenging. This work was completed in collaboration with one of the largest ISPs in Connecticut. The problem is topical, and approaches such as those proposed here are sought by users. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Naval Research Logistics 48:348–362, 2001     

论师范院校语文教育理论课教学改革和实验

语文教育理论课普遍存在教学结构不合理 ,理论体系和技能训练体系不完整 ,缺乏系统性和科学性 ,理论传授与能力训练相脱节等问题 ,影响了教学质量的提高 ,制约了教学改革的展开。本文对该课程的教学结构进行重新审视、梳理 ,将之划分为两个系统 ,并将其各自要素及相互关系进行分析 ,论证了理论知识系统与教学技能训练系统在教学过程中相互对应 ,同步进行 ,共同深化的科学性和可行性。