An enterprise portfolio approach for defence capability planning

Capability-based planning (CBP) is considered by many defence organisations to be the best practice for enterprise-level planning, analysis and management. This approach, loosely based around investment portfolio theory, is premised on balancing the cost, benefit and risk of capability options across the defence enterprise. However a number of authors have recently noted limitations of its current applications. The authors propose a more general, insurance-based approach, which can support the evolutionary improvement of the current CBP approach. This approach is implemented as hedging-based planning and aims to better reflect the enterprise nature of defence organisations, capturing both force structure and force generation aspects of military systems.     

Can Smart Defense work? A suggested approach to increasing risk- and burden-sharing within NATO

“Smart Defense” is NATO's new approach to risk- and burden-sharing, which has been a chronic problem within the alliance since the 1950s. Numerous solutions have been proposed, but initiatives resulting in more equitable burden-sharing have never been fully implemented. There are two driving forces influencing a county's willingness to support such initiatives – the economic theory of alliances and the risks posed by the implementation of capability sharing. The authors examine each of these and propose that rather than aiming for group consensus on the production of capabilities, NATO should focus on interoperability through support functions. This approach provides the most likely solution for connecting the forces, doctrine, procedures, standards and other factors of joint capability production such that country leaders find the risks of doing so to be politically and militarily acceptable.     

The Management of Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal

Pakistan, the fastest growing nuclear weapon state in the world, has established over the last decade a nuclear management system it holds to be “foolproof.” Despite the explosion of radical groups challenging the writ of the state, it dismisses concerns by critics that its nuclear weapons are not safe and secure as “preposterous” and an attempt to “malign” the state. This article examines Pakistan's nuclear management system in four functional areas: command-and-control, physical security, nuclear surety, and doctrine. It describes what is publicly known in each area, identifies areas of omission and inadequacy in each one, and examines several premises of the nuclear program the author considers to be unfounded. Comparing these deficiencies in Pakistan's nuclear management system to the current problems plaguing the US nuclear management system, the author concludes that complacency and unfounded confidence in the efficacy of such programs, if not addressed and corrected, could lead to a future nuclear catastrophe in South Asia.     

基于风险评估的检测与修理决策模型

研究了基于故障风险的检测与维修策略,运用威布尔比例风险模型建立系统故障率与工作时间及所处状态的关系。分析了两类基于间接状态信息维修决策的风险,建立了系统检测及维修策略的决策树,通过比较检测与不检测情况下的期望费用确定最优的检测间隔。算例表明,所提出的方法能够有效控制系统运行风险,降低系统运行费用。     

费氏曲线在大型购物中心防火安全评估中的应用

大型购物中心结构复杂,人员密集,火灾隐患较多,提前做好防火安全评估工作十分重要.利用现场调查法、实例分析法等,结合费氏曲线防火安全评估法针对大型购物中心的空阃特性和防火对策作探讨,并对某购物中心进行评估,利用疏散允许时间的人员安全曲线,得出该购物中心在发生火灾时的人员安全曲线.通过对防火安全方法进行分析,体现出费氏曲线在大型购物中心防火安全评估应用中的适用性、发展性.     

谈“345”模式创新消防安全网格化管理工作

随着城乡"一体化"不断加快融合,消防安全管理中存在的问题随之扩大,"网格化"消防安全管理模式是解决目前消防安全管理问题的突破口,需采取"345"模式整合社会资源,发动全社会力量共同参与消防安全网格化管理。"345"模式即强化"三项机制",确保消防责任无盲区;依托"四支队伍",确保消防工作有人管;推行"五化措施",确保火灾防控全覆盖。     

Specification vagueness and supply quality risk

Specifying quality requirement is integral to any sourcing relationship, but vague and ambiguous specifications can often be observed in practice, especially when a buyer is in the initial stage of sourcing a new product. In this research, we study a supplier's production incentives under vague or exact quality specifications. We prove that a vague specification may in fact motivate the supplier to increase its quantity provision, resulting in a higher delivery quality. Vague quality specification can therefore be advantageous for a buyer to screen potential suppliers with an initial test order, and then rely on the received quality level to set more concrete quality guidelines. There is a degree, though, to which vague quality specification can be effective, as too much vagueness may decrease the supplier's quantity provision and hence the expected delivery quality. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

基于弹迹跟踪预测的舰艇定位方法

舰艇采用实测舰位法对岸上不可见目标进行远程攻击时,在已获取目标地理信息的情况下,我舰定位误差往往成为影响打击精度的关键因素。针对惯性导航长时间工作产生积累误差,以及卫星导航在战时易受干扰等情况,提出利用对单发弹丸的跟踪与预测,结合提取的岸上目标绝对定位数据和弹丸落点的偏差信息,反向推算发射舰相对岸上目标的位置,可较为精确地修正我舰的绝对定位数据,为后续射击提供修正手段。该方法减少了战时舰炮武器系统对导航的依赖,仅靠对单发弹丸跟踪和预测,即可提高后续对岸射击的精度。     

大空间建筑防火设计应注意的问题

大空间建筑是近年发展起来的新兴建筑。本文分析了大空间建筑的火灾危险性 ,并就其防火设计提出了对策。     

油库安全事故致因机理及安全评价方法研究

首先基于油库安全和事故状态分析,将油库安全事故的影响因素分为人的行为、物的状态、管理和环境四个要素,提出油库安全事故致因新模式,即两种安全模式和一种事故致因模式,以从源头上控制油库事故的发生。其次,依据致因模式,建立了油库安全状况评价指标体系,包括人员、装(设)备、材料、环境、方法,有助于评判油库安全状况。最后,依据安全事故新模式和安全评价指标体系,提出了油库安全保障体系,包括安全教育、安全技术培训、安全法规、安全监督、安全预案与救援、安全设施建设等体系。