Field test and probabilistic analysis of irregular steel debris casualty risks from a person-borne improvised explosive device

Person-borne improvised explosive devices (PBIEDs) are often used in terrorist attacks in Western countries. This study aims to predict the trajectories of PBIED fragments and the subsequent safety risks for people exposed to this hazard. An explosive field test with a typical PBIED composed of a plastic explosive charge and steel nut enhancements was performed to record initial fragment behaviour, including positions, velocity, and trajectory angles. These data were used to predict the full trajectory of PBIED fragments using a probabilistic analysis. In the probabilistic analyses a probability of fatality or serious injury was computed. Based on the results presented, many practical conclusions can be drawn, for instance, regarding safe evacuation distances if a person were exposed to a suspected PBIED.     

基于小波变换的海面红外弱小目标检测中实时性研究

针对凝视型红外预警系统在复杂海面背景下对弱小信号检测的实时性问题,提出了压缩监测区域、危险度分级、舍弃小波变换后的低频分量部分和检测图像中的零信号4种优化型算法,减少了系统的运算量,提高了系统的运算速度,满足了系统实时性的要求,并且降低了系统的虚警率,保证了系统对强起伏背景的抑制效果。     

新经济环境下内部审计风险形成的主客观因素及防范

本文从客观和主观两个方面分析社会主义市场经济条件下,内部审计风险形成的原因,并尝试提出了相应的防范措施,即增强内部审计人员的风险意识、提高内部审计队伍的整体素质、采用内部审计的科学方法、加强内部审计的机构管理和完善内部审计的监控制度。     

模糊逻辑系统在船舶风险评估中的应用

为了合理进行船舶风险评估,提出了一种基于模糊逻辑系统的船舶风险评估方法.根据模糊逻辑系统的基本原理,建立了船舶风险评估的模糊逻辑模型;按照国家标准、规范,并结合经验建立了风险指标的模糊集合、风险矩阵及模糊规则,然后进行了模糊推理,得到了系统的风险等级,并制定了预防风险的措施.以某艇消防系统的风险评估为例,证明了其能够合理地评估出系统的风险,可为决策提供参考.     

DESIGNING A VIABLE PREDICTION MARKET TO FORECAST DEFENSE ACQUISITION COST AND SCHEDULE OUTCOMES

This paper is the first to demonstrate a viable prediction market that successfully forecasts defense acquisition cost and schedule outcomes, and to provide insights for defense executive decision‐making. Already used in private industry, prediction markets can also accurately forecast outcomes and their associated risks for government programs. Using virtual money, prediction markets allow traders to ‘bet’ on some future outcome. This market mechanism turns out to be a relatively simple and accurate way to discover, aggregate, and communicate to a defense executive the collective market’s beliefs about the likelihood of an eventual outcome of an acquisition program of interest.     

The management of security incidents by private security

This article is about the management of security incidents in organisations and companies which are under the protection of private security personnel, whether in-house or contracted. Incidents can be defined as accidental or anecdotal (bird flies into a camera) to a violation of law or company policy. Managing security incidents is one of the key functions of a private security service provider. The purpose of this study is to explore the management of security incidents and the information related thereto, identify shortcomings and find solutions for managing these shortcomings. Interviews were used to gain insight from personnel within the private and government sectors which are served by the private security industry. It was found that security incidents are handled in a routine way by organisations from the different sectors. One major shortcoming is that security incidents and the information related thereto are not managed by security service providers according to an operational framework or model with the required infrastructure and resources. The significance of this study is for security incidents to be managed correctly, so that the information related thereto may be captured accurately, analysed and used proactively and reactively to improve physical protection systems, develop preventative strategies and provide actionable information products in order to reduce crime, increase detection rates and prevent losses.     

A theory of war finance

This paper analyses the financial and war‐spending policies of a state that faces a conflict in which defeat would result in the loss of sovereign power and in which the material consequences, conditional on avoiding defeat, are stochastic. The analysis takes explicit account of the historical experiences of lenders, who face debt repudiation if the state to whom they have lent is defeated and who also face partial default if the material consequences of the war are unfavorable for the debtor state, even if it avoids defeat. In this analysis, the state uses war debt to smooth expected consumption intertemporally in response to temporary war spending, and the state also uses contingent debt servicing to insure realized consumption against the risk associated with the material consequences of the war. An important innovation in the analysis is to treat the equilibrium amount of war spending, the state's resulting probability of avoiding defeat, as well as the equilibrium amount of borrowing as a set of endogenous variables to be determined simultaneously.     

自主驾驶衍生的安全技术在军车中的应用

自主驾驶技术许多相关技术可以应用到车辆主动安全中去.文章阐述了一些主动安全的基本概念,并讨论了主动安全技术在军车的应用展望.     

战术导弹靶场试验风险分析与处理方法

从战术导弹靶场试验风险因素存在的主要环节分析入手,建立了风险因素指标体系,结合靶场试验特点阐述了风险辨识、评估、处理的原则和方法,结合某型舰空导弹试验靶标保障的工程问题,对该靶标供靶风险进行了辨识,对风险发生的概率和后果严重性作出了评估,并在此基础上提出了解决问题的基本途径.     

文化安全视角下的新疆高校网络舆情管理探究

文化安全的关键在意识形态,意识形态领域中的关键问题是价值观掌控问题。作为文化传播的主要组成部分,网络舆情对文化安全的表层和深层结构都有重要影响。本文从文化安全视角下切入,结合新疆高校网络舆情调研,分析了文化安全面临的冲击与挑战,并提出了基于文化安全保障下的新疆高校网络舆情有效管理方式和路径。