Comparative analysis of Arab Spring determinants

The Arab Spring, a pro-democracy uprising that has been sweeping through North Africa and the entire Arab world since 2010, has been described as a cataclysmic revolutionary wave that has left the overthrow of political regimes in its wake. Studies have comprehensively x-rayed the political and socio-economic circumstances that gave rise to the uprising. Apart from the impact of the uprising on political developments and democratic governance in the Arab world in particular and the world in general, the circumstances that resulted in the revolutions constitute empirical security implications for Nigeria. This is the focus of this article. Using the Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) and other selected indicators, this article draws a comparative analysis of the key factors that led to the uprisings in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia, pointing out areas of social and security tensions in Nigeria. Based on these findings, it points out the urgency of and imperative for security sector reforms in Nigeria.     

The ‘African COP’

The 17th Conference of the Parties (COP17) had been anticipated as the ‘African COP’, not only due to the African venue but also due to the opportunity it would afford African countries – with South Africa at the helm – to steer the debate on a global climate change regime. With the conference now over, lobby groups, international organisations, negotiators, observers and commentators alike have been taking stock of its outcome. Despite the litany of developmental and security implications of climate change, COP17 got underway with little hope that much might actually be achieved. In light of the discouraging condition of the global economy, with leading developed economies suffering financially, states were hardly in a mood to be making concessions that would impact their fiscal health. Nonetheless, an agreement was reached. Questions remain, however, about the significance of the outcome of the African COP for the world at large, but ultimately also for Africa.     

ACHIEVING THE VISION OF THE NPT

This article assesses the prospects for a strategy of incrementalism to lead to achievement of the core bargain of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons: non-nuclear weapon states' nuclear nonproliferation in exchange for nuclear weapon states' nuclear disarmament to the point of “global zero.” Game theory, prospect theory, and liberal international theory are used to evaluate the potential of a strategy of incrementalism. While separately each has insights to offer, it is when all three theoretical approaches are used in tandem that meaningful explanatory gains emerge. The article concludes that incrementalism probably cannot lead to complete nonproliferation and global nuclear zero. Instead, signal events (as described by prospect theory) are needed to “punctuate” incremental processes in negotiations (best explained by liberal international theory) in order to move past hindrances such as international structural constraints (exemplified by game theory) and the conservative risk-taking propensities of state elites (described by prospect theory).     

In spite of reform: NATO HQ still in the grips of nations

Security Intergovernmental Organizations, here illustrated by NATO, persist in a “permitted interval” of internationalization, i.e. permitted by its member-states. On the one hand, they are seldom or never permitted to vanish due to member-states' vested interests in retaining them as tools of statecraft, even if their original purposes have become redundant. On the other hand, there is an internationalization ceiling that they must respect: they should not become too autonomous and thereby no longer be suitable as member-state tools. In spite of post-Cold War reform, interviews carried out at NATO Headquarters (HQ) in the late 1980s compared to interviews in 2012 display that a continuous pulling and hauling of forces of internationalization and renationalization have taken place around NATO HQ. The only instance of clear internationalization can be observed in the proactive diplomacy of Secretary General Fogh Rasmussen. There is stiff opposition to the internationalization of abolishing the Military Committee/International Military Staff among minor and South European states, and there is no waning in states' attempts to micro-manage the International Staff. Only external shocks can overcome resistance to internationalizing reform.     

Boko Haram and the challenges of Nigeria's war on terror

Boko Haram terrorism has been recognized by Nigerian President Jonathan as the most threatening and complex security issue in Nigeria since independence. In response, the Federal Government of Nigeria has committed itself to different counterterrorism measures, which are largely dominated by “hard politics” and military mobilization. Spending heavily on defense to upgrade military hardware and train personnel in a counterterrorism role, Nigeria has also boosted its strategic importance in the “Global War on Terror”. However, this attempt has become unpopular as it has failed to contain Boko Haram within a short time frame and has made insufficient headway against unabated terror, with human rights costs among the host communities and amidst a surge of stakeholders' discordance. As a matter of concern, this article seeks to assess Boko Haram as an opponent in Nigeria's war on terror (WOT) and to ascertain the challenges the country faces, the alternative measures open to it, and possible ways forward.     

VERIFIABILITY,RELIABILITY, AND NATIONAL SECURITY

The rejection of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) by the U.S. Senate in October 1999 could have been avoided, and the consequences of that vote still loom in the minds of supporters of the treaty. President Barack Obama has embraced the vision of a world free of nuclear weapons, and a key element of the Obama administration's arms control agenda is delivering on U.S. CTBT ratification. In order to secure the two-thirds majority in the Senate necessary to ratify the treaty, senators that remain skeptical of nuclear disarmament must also be convinced that the entry into force of the CTBT is in the national security interest of the United States. This article provides an analysis of the issues surrounding U.S. CTBT ratification divided into three segments—verifiability of the treaty, reliability of the U.S. stockpile, and the treaty's impact on U.S. national security—and concludes that CTBT ratification serves the security objectives of the United States. The CTBT constitutes an integral component of the multilateral nonproliferation architecture designed to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons, and it constrains the qualitative development of nuclear weapons, thereby hindering efforts by states of concern to develop advanced nuclear weapons.     

靶场光测图像实时判读系统设计与方法

研究了靶场光学测量图像实时判读的若干关键技术,并据此设计实现了一套实时判读解算系统。目标自动捕获、跟踪和判读特征高精度定位是实时判读的难点问题,分别采用了形状相似度分析、在线区域跟踪学习、迭代轮廓匹配定位多判读点等技术;在此基础上,根据实时处理的时效性要求高、可并行程度强以及流程时序严格等特点,采纳分布式架构融合业务流程管理的软件体系结构设计模式,实现了数据与流程的集中管理、多站图像并行判读、数据驱动的解算方法自动选择与友好的用户界面。以航空靶场空中发射试验任务为例,通过实验验证了系统的可行性和时效性。该系统可扩展应用于各类靶场试验,满足用户实时获取并分析武器试验数据的需求。     

浅谈动物检疫学教学的改革

在我国已经加入WTO的今天,为了使学生掌握扎实的动物检疫理论知识和熟练的操作技能,提高学生分析问题和解决问题的能力,培养和造就出一支有理想、懂法律、通业务的高素质、应用型、复合型检疫人才,我们对《动物检疫学》课程的教学做了一些改革尝试。     

电力设备局部放电在线监测用传感器传输特性分析

电流传感器是电力设备局部放电在线监测系统中的一个重要组成部分 ,其局部放电信号传输特性直接影响测量结果。本文对电流传感器传输特性进行了理论分析 ,有关分析结果与实测结果一致     

合同战术级军事专家系统研制

文中以合同战术级军事专家系统的实践为基础,以逻辑型语言为主要实现语言,描述基于黑板模型的问题求解策略,使用框架与产生式规则相结合的知识表示方法,以及运用基于预制文本与模糊文法的解释机制等。应用表明,本文提出和采用的方法与技术取得了明显的效益。