构筑中国新地缘安全战略的理论准备与思考

目前,中国面临的地缘安全挑战已经达到了一个危险的临界点,而对当前挑战的应对却没有表现出整体的成熟。显然,没有适应新形势的完整的地缘安全理论是造成出现不成熟的应对危机举措的重要原因。因此,从理论上突破传统中国地缘安全战略的影响,构筑新的完整的地缘安全理论,是一项紧迫而必须完成的任务。     

火灾风险分析中若干术语辨析

在性能化防火设计方法文献中,出现了不少容易混淆的有关火灾风险分析的重要术语,如果不能正确理解这些术语的内涵,将妨碍我们的学习与借鉴。为此,对危险和风险,火灾危险和火灾风险,火灾风险分析与火灾风险评估,风险估计、评价和识别,感知风险和可接受风险,后果、易损性和严重度,火灾风险决策等重要术语进行了辨析。     

网络环境下的知识产权保护探索

网络技术的快速发展给知识产权的保护工作带来了前所未有的冲击和挑战。只有进一步提高全民族的创新精神和知识产权保护意识,同时通过扎实有效的工作,坚决遏制侵犯知识产权违法犯罪行为,才能真正增强全社会创造、管理、运用、维护知识产权的意识和能力,形成良好的网络环境下知识产权保护的长效机制。     

虚拟战场电磁环境仿真系统研究

针对某地空反辐射导弹武器仿真系统中虚拟战场电磁环境仿真分系统的实际需求,对仿真系统的硬件环境、软件环境、系统结构进行了分析研究,基于高层体系结构(HLA)具体设计和实现了相应的仿真系统。仿真实验表明,该仿真系统产生的作战想定和电磁环境能够满足某地空反辐射导弹武器仿真系统的要求,具有实用价值。     

弹上电气系统电磁兼容性设计

随着防空导弹电子集成化的提高和打击目标向雷达、预警机等电子辐射类目标的扩展,导弹弹上电气所处的内、外电磁环境日趋复杂、恶劣,弹上电气电磁兼容性设计的重要性也越来越突出,将直接影响到导弹性能和作战成败。     

基于状态的维修及其决策模型研究

在分析各种传统维修方式优缺点的基础上,研究了基于状态的维修(Condition Based Maintenance,CBM)中现行的几个技术标准IEEE Std 1451、IEEE Std 1232和ISO 13373-1,并着重分析了CBM开放系统体系结构OSA-CBM的7大组成模块,指出了未来CBM的发展应集中于OSA-CBM的第5、6模块的研究。针对这2个模块,给出了一种利用建立数学模型进行装备健康预测及维修决策支持的可行的研究思路和结构框架。     

防空兵侦察力量机动部署方案优选与评估

针对防空兵侦察力量机动部署问题,分析并生成了机动部署方案,运用模糊灰色关联分析法选出其中的最优方案。通过实例计算得出了信息化条件下,防空兵侦察力量进行机动部署可有效提高其作战效能的科学结论,并验证了算法的有效性。     

可靠性试验与环境试验的关系

介绍了可靠性试验和环境试验的定义、目的、意义、分类,并对两者之间的联系与区别以及产品研制生产过程中两者的分布与作用等方面进行分析。     

Acrimony,asymmetry, and the Sino-Indian nuclear relationship

ABSTRACT

While most contemporary analyses of South Asian nuclear dynamics acknowledge the presence of a strategic triangle between the region’s three nuclear players, the primary focus usually remains on the rivalry between India and Pakistan. Discussions of Sino-Indian relations remain limited. This is likely attributed to the stability in the two countries’ relations, yet it is worth asking why this stability exists and whether it is likely to continue in the future. Although China and India have an acrimonious relationship, their asymmetric nuclear capabilities and threat perceptions mitigate the danger of a traditional security dilemma. India may perceive China’s nuclear aggrandizement to be a security threat, but the same is not true of China, which has a vastly superior nuclear force and is largely shaping its nuclear-force structure in response to the threat it perceives from the United States. This dynamic makes a serious conventional or nuclear conflict highly unlikely.     

Chinese views of the nuclear endgame in North Korea

ABSTRACT

This article examines Chinese views of North Korea’s nuclear-weapon program during the Donald J. Trump administration. It shows that China has portrayed itself as a responsible country that promotes regional stability, unlike the United States, which has engaged in military brinkmanship with North Korea. Some Chinese foreign-policy experts have asserted that Beijing should back Pyongyang in the event of war because of their shared history of humiliation by great powers, while others have favored working with other regional partners. Another theme in Chinese discourse about North Korea is that Pyongyang is an impetuous, ungrateful regime that impedes Beijing’s ability to attain its core interests of regional stability, economic development, and heightened global influence. This negative assessment of North Korea drove Beijing’s endorsement of stricter UN sanctions in 2017. While Beijing has punished Pyongyang for its wayward policies, China responded favorably to North Korea’s decision in April 2018 to stop nuclear tests and partake in international dialogue. Beijing seeks to help Pyongyang gradually disarm and develop its economy within a Chinese-led East Asian order. The article concludes by explaining how Beijing’s recent, more positive view of Pyongyang is likely to affect its support for American efforts to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear-weapon program.