基于RBF网络加速模型的可靠性评估

在可靠性加速试验中,由于各种不同的应力引起的失效机理不一样,不同应力之间可能还存在着相互耦合作用,要将它们和寿命结合,找出一个能真实描述客观情况的加速模型是相当困难的,仅仅依据有限的试验数据建立产品的加速模型存在很大难度和风险,为此提出了一种基于RBF网络加速模型的可靠性评估方法．该方法将加速寿命试验中的加速应力和可靠度作为训练网络的输入向量,相应的时间作为目标向量对网络进行训练,根据网络收敛速和误差精度等情况调整隐含层单元个数,直至得到最优的网络．最后,以实例说明了该方法的有效性和实用性．     

基于混合智能算法的小型通信干扰装备分配优化

如何充分发挥小型通信干扰装备的作战效能是指挥员面临的棘手问题。本文将战术指标——干扰后的通信畅通区覆盖程度作为评估通信干扰装备分配优劣的指标,分别建立了单机和多部干扰时的通信干扰有效压制区和通信畅通区边界的计算模型,并给出了通信干扰有效压制区和通信畅通区面积的计算方法。构建了基于机会约束规划的空域频域通信干扰任务分配模型,并设计了混合蚁群算法和遗传算法的模型求解算法。最后进行了仿真实验,验证分析了模型和算法的合理性。研究成果为通信对抗战术计算和作战运用研究拓展了思路。     

弹道导弹防御中拦截弹最优分层配置

多层弹道导弹防御系统在助推段、飞行中段或再入段不同阶段实施拦截,可有效提高系统拦截概率,不同拦截阶段存在拦截弹最优配比问题。为了解决拦截弹道导弹过程中的最优分层配置的问题,本文分别以单层、双层、三层这三种拦截系统为例,通过公式演算和计算机仿真,得出了分段拦截弹道导弹时、不同拦截阶段的拦截弹之间的数量比与整体拦截成功率之间的关系;并提出了整体拦截成功率的概念。经仿真表明,在整体拦截成功率给定的情况下,使用本文所得出的不同拦截段之间所需拦截弹数目之间的最优比,可以最大限度地降低弹道导弹的拦截成本。     

Evaluating cost and reliability integrated performance of stochastic logistics systems

The significance of integrating reliability into logistics performance has been established [The Logistics Performance Index and Its Indicators, World Bank International Trade and Transport Departments, (2010)]. Hence, as a response to the work by the World Bank, the present article aims to evaluate the performance index R_b,d of logistics systems as the probability that a specified demand d can be distributed successfully through multistate arc capacities from the source to the destination under the constraint that the total distribution cost should not exceed the cost limitation b. This article provides a pioneering approach for a straightforward computation of the performance index R_b,d. The proposed algorithm is a hybrid between the polynomial time capacity‐scaling algorithm, which was presented by Edmonds and Karp [JACM 19 (1972)], and the decomposition algorithm, which was presented by Jane and Laih [IEEE (2008)]. Currently, the proposed approach is the only algorithm that can directly compute R_b,d. An illustration of the proposed algorithm is presented. The results of the computational experiments indicate that the presented algorithm outperforms existing algorithms. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

逐步增加Ⅱ型截尾样本下k/N(G)系统可靠性指标的置信区间

在逐步增加Ⅰ型截尾样本下,研究k/N(G)系统可靠性指标的区间估计问题。假设部件寿命服从指数分布,利用极大似然法和Bayes方法,首先给出了部件失效率的Bayes近似置信区间,其次推导出了系统可靠度和平均寿命的Bayes近似置信区间的计算公式。最后给出随机模拟例子,并对置信区间的精度进行了讨论。     

水下传感器网络冗余设计

冗余设计可以有效地延长水下传感器网络寿命和提高网络可靠性,基于可靠性理论,考虑水下传感器网络环境及节点垂直移动等约束,在对冗余非共享方案研究的基础上,结合水下传感器网络特点,提出了适合于水下传感器网络特点的冗余共享设计方案,并给出了冗余共享方案的可靠性模型,通过数值计算,研究了网络可靠性变化曲线及冗余节点数与网络寿命的关系。经过MATLAB软件仿真,表明在同一网络寿命情况下,相对于冗余非共享方案,冗余共享方案所需冗余节点数更少,降低了网络部署成本,达到了冗余优化的目的。     

高可靠性软件的极值统计分析

提出了极值统计分析的方法.对于失效数据极值分布函数的拟合检验,采用了相关系数法;对于母体分布的参数估计,则分别采用了最小二乘估计(LSE)和极大似然估计(MLE);最后通过一个实例说明了统计过程,并用模拟的方法证明了最小二乘估计较好.     

基于威布尔过程模型的坦克部署期可靠性研究

通过对某新研坦克部署期故障情况进行具体而全面的统计分析,并采用基于随机点过程的可修系统理论中的威布尔过程模型(AMSAA模型),得出该型坦克部署期的可靠性特点与规律,对于研究新装备可靠性规律和提高新装备的部署保障水平,具有重要的借鉴作用.     

A dynamic allocation heuristic for centralized safety stock

An inventory system that consists of a depot (central warehouse) and retailers (regional warehouses) is considered. The system is replenished regularly on a fixed cycle by an outside supplier. Most of the stock is direct shipped to the retailer locations but some stock is sent to the central warehouse. At the beginning of any one of the periods during the cycle, the central stock can then be completely allocated out to the retailers. In this paper we propose a heuristic method to dynamically (as retailer inventory levels change with time) determine the appropriate period in which to do the allocation. As the optimal method is not tractable, the heuristic's performance is compared against two other approaches. One presets the allocation period, while the other provides a lower bound on the expected shortages of the optimal solution, obtained by assuming that we know ahead of time all of the demands, period by period, in the cycle. The results from extensive simulation experiments show that the dynamic heuristic significantly outperforms the “preset” approach and its performance is reasonably close to the lower bound. Moreover, the logic of the heuristic is appealing and the calculations, associated with using it, are easy to carry out. Sensitivities to various system parameters (such as the safety factor, coefficient of variation of demand, number of regional warehouses, external lead time, and the cycle length) are presented. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

Evaluating methods for the reliability of a large 2‐dimensional rectangular k‐within‐consecutive‐(r,s)‐out‐of‐(m,n):F system

A 2‐dimensional rectangular k‐within‐consecutive‐(r, s)‐out‐of‐(m, n):F system consists of m × n components, and fails if and only if k or more components fail in an r × s submatrix. This system can be treated as a reliability model for TFT liquid crystal displays, wireless communication networks, etc. Although an effective method has been developed for evaluating the exact system reliability of small or medium‐sized systems, that method needs extremely high computing time and memory capacity when applied to larger systems. Therefore, developing upper and lower bounds and accurate approximations for system reliability is useful for large systems. In this paper, first, we propose new upper and lower bounds for the reliability of a 2‐dimensional rectangular k‐within‐consecutive‐(r, s)‐out‐of‐(m, n):F system. Secondly, we propose two limit theorems for that system. With these theorems we can obtain accurate approximations for system reliabilities when the system is large and component reliabilities are close to one. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005