Predictability of operational processes over finite horizon

Operational processes are usually studied in terms of stochastic processes. The main information measure used for predictability of stochastic processes is the entropy rate, which is asymptotic conditional entropy, thus not suitable for application over a finite horizon. We use the conditional entropy to study the predictability of stochastic processes over the finite horizon. It is well‐known that the conditional entropies of stationary processes decrease as the processes evolve, implying that, on average, their pasts become more informative about prediction of their future outcomes. Some important operational processes such as martingale, models for maintenance policies, nonhomogeneous Poisson, and mixed Poisson processes are nonstationary. We show that as a nonstationary process evolves, it may provide more information or less information about the future state of the system. We develop results for comparing the predictability of stochastic processes. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

基于作战效能的武器装备可靠性指标评估方法

装备可靠性的评估是装备管理使用中面临的重要课题.在总结前人的研究基础上,提出了一种基于武器装备作战效能的可靠性评估方法:建立非线性指标聚合的武器效能指标体系,通过主客观评分效果对底层指标进行打分,经过非线性指标聚合等手段获取装备效能的归一化评估指数,通过多次评估获取装备效能评估指数数据集,以此为基础对装备的可靠性进行评估.最后给出了评估仿真实例,实验结果表明所提方法的有效性、可行性.     

基于响应平面法的压力容器可靠性评定

针对压力容器制造、使用过程中各种参数的不确定性,提出了一种基于响应平面的随机分析方法.根据某压力容器的结构特点,确定性有限元分析采用了接触有限元,结合中心组合抽样设计构建了容器最大应力的响应平面,以此为基础对压力容器应力分布进行了随机分析.可靠性分析中引入应力—强度干涉模型,并分别对容器壁面和接管处进行了可靠性评定.实...     

基于三角模糊数的舰空导弹飞行可靠性评估

根据舰空导弹飞行可靠性的基本概念,研究了基于三角模糊数的舰空导弹飞行可靠性评估方法,构建了舰空导弹飞行可靠性评估模型;分别给出了导弹发射前检查可靠性、导弹发射可靠性、导弹制导飞行可靠性、导弹命中目标可靠性的三角模糊数评定方法;采用专家评定法,评定舰空导弹武器系统单个设备可靠性的三角模糊数。通过研究,可评定舰空导弹在作战使用环境下的飞行可靠性,为导弹飞行可靠性评估提供一种新的研究方法。应用实例证明了评估方法的可操作性。     

机械系统可靠性设计若干问题探讨

机械系统的可靠性设计是当前可靠性工程界面临的热点和难点问题之一,从分析机械系统可靠性设计的特点和难点入手,探讨了机械系统可靠性建模、分配、预计等机械系统可靠性设计中急需解决的关键问题。     

突防过程的组网雷达干扰资源优化分配

以组网雷达融合中心检测概率为目标函数,建立针对组网雷达系统的干扰资源优化分配模型.并进一步指出该模型运用于飞行器突防时,其不足之处在于"以点带面",以飞行器突防过程中某一点的融合中心检测概率代替整个突防过程时,该评估方法损失过程中的大量信息.在此基础上充分利用突防过程的信息,提出以"融合中心检测概率加权积分"为目标函数,建立基于突防过程的干扰资源优化分配模型.仿真结果表明具有一定的指导意义.     

Capacity allocation with traditional and Internet channels

In this paper we study a capacity allocation problem for two firms, each of which has a local store and an online store. Customers may shift among the stores upon encountering a stockout. One question facing each firm is how to allocate its finite capacity (i.e., inventory) between its local and online stores. One firm's allocation affects the decision of the rival, thereby creating a strategic interaction. We consider two scenarios of a single‐product single‐period model and derive corresponding existence and stability conditions for a Nash equilibrium. We then conduct sensitivity analysis of the equilibrium solution with respect to price and cost parameters. We also prove the existence of a Nash equilibrium for a generalized model in which each firm has multiple local stores and a single online store. Finally, we extend the results to a multi‐period model in which each firm decides its total capacity and allocates this capacity between its local and online stores. A myopic solution is derived and shown to be a Nash equilibrium solution of a corresponding “sequential game.” © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

Minimizing the makespan in open‐shop scheduling problems with a convex resource consumption function

We consider open‐shop scheduling problems where operation‐processing times are a convex decreasing function of a common limited nonrenewable resource. The scheduler's objective is to determine the optimal job sequence on each machine and the optimal resource allocation for each operation in order to minimize the makespan. We prove that this problem is NP‐hard, but for the special case of the two‐machine problem we provide an efficient optimization algorithm. We also provide a fully polynomial approximation scheme for solving the preemptive case. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

基于组合设计的软件可靠性测试方法

提出了将实验设计中的组合设计方法应用于软件可靠性测试。分析了组合设计方法在软件可靠性测试用例设计中应用的理论基础和基于组合设计的软件可靠性测试的一般方法。同时指出了利用软件操作剖面信息和失效数据进行可靠性评估的方法。     

不可预见作战下排弹抢修力量编配分析

在资源有限的情况下,综合考虑某一区域不同机场之间的相互关系,从整体的角度合理分配排弹抢修资源,可以大幅提升区域内军队机场阵地的战场排弹抢修能力。本文通过建立数学模型,从整体的角度出发,分析区域内各机场的排弹抢修资源分配问题：首先,针对不可预见作战带来的新挑战,提出了新的机场排弹抢修作业流程,引出排弹抢修力量分配所面临的几个现实问题;其次,为解决提出的问题,建立计算排弹抢修时间的数学模型;最后,利用建立的模型依次对上述问题进行分析,并给出排弹抢修资源编配与力量建设的建议。本研究认为,军事机场排弹抢修力量应根据机场特点,合理分配排弹抢修资源;要以机场排弹抢修力量为主导,以外部支援力量为辅助,提升机场自身排弹抢修能力;可通过建设排弹抢修物资仓库和设置排弹抢修支援小组,提升多机场联动的排弹抢修能力。