应力-强度模型的Bayes可靠性分析

当应力、强度分别服从于正态分布、指数分布和Weibull分布时 ,分析了应力 -强度模型的可靠性评估 ,着重讨论了无信息验前下的Bayes可靠性评估。仿真结果表明 ,无信息验前下的评估结论可以很好地用频率学派的观点来解释。     

基于神经网络的弹丸强度可靠性分析

构造了一个基于神经网络的弹丸强度分析模型,通过对以往实际发生数据的训练与推理,设计并构造了一种自适应变步长自构型神经网络。对影响弹丸强度的诸多因素进行了综合的非线性分析。并可以利用该模型进行强度预测,减少实际打弹的次数,经济效益明显。     

火箭发动机可靠性增长评估的Bayes方法

针对火箭发动机分阶段试验,每阶段试验后对发动机出现的故障分析、归零的情况,提出等效试验数据的概念,结合Bayes方法对系统的可靠性增长试验进行评估,并在此基础上给出可靠度的增长分析,最后给出实例进行说明。     

并行面向对象数据库中的数据放置

针对并行面向对象数据库的特点,结合异步并行查询执行策略,提出了一种基于对象类的混合式数据放置策略,它包括两个部分:混合式数据划分策略和基于对象类的数据分配策略     

伺服机构故障下基于线性规划的运载火箭姿控系统重构控制

发动机伺服机构故障给新一代运载火箭姿控系统的可靠性和安全性带来挑战,亟须开展重构控制策略研究。针对这一问题,提出一种基于线性规划的摆角重构控制分配方法。将伺服机构故障下的摆角分配问题转化为1范数单目标有约束优化问题,进而转化为标准的线性规划模型,采用单纯形法进行求解。仿真结果表明,所提出的线性规划法能够实现伺服机构故障下姿控系统的完全重构,各摆角均未达到饱和值,表明了方法的有效性。     

Non‐zero‐sum nonlinear network path interdiction with an application to inspection in terror networks

A simultaneous non‐zero‐sum game is modeled to extend the classical network interdiction problem. In this model, an interdictor (e.g., an enforcement agent) decides how much of an inspection resource to spend along each arc in the network to capture a smuggler. The smuggler (randomly) selects a commodity to smuggle—a source and destination pair of nodes, and also a corresponding path for traveling between the given pair of nodes. This model is motivated by a terrorist organization that can mobilize its human, financial, or weapon resources to carry out an attack at one of several potential target destinations. The probability of evading each of the network arcs nonlinearly decreases in the amount of resource that the interdictor spends on its inspection. We show that under reasonable assumptions with respect to the evasion probability functions, (approximate) Nash equilibria of this game can be determined in polynomial time; depending on whether the evasion functions are exponential or general logarithmically‐convex functions, exact Nash equilibria or approximate Nash equilibria, respectively, are computed. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 139–153, 2017     

遗传算法及其在导弹火力分配上的应用

遗传算法是一种近年来新发展起来的优化算法,目前它已被广泛应用于解决许多实际问题,如函数优化、图像识别、机器学习、人工神经网络、人工生命、优化调度等许多领域。通过对一种遗传算法的研究,阐述其在导弹武器火力分配上的应用。首先设计和实现了一种遗传算法;然后描述了导弹火力分配优化问题,建立了其数学模型;最后运用遗传算法求解了该问题。     

坦克分队在进攻战斗中的最佳火力分配

运用兰切斯特方程和极值理论就坦克分队在进攻战斗中如何分配火力及使火力分配最佳进行了研究。给出了最佳方案的计算方法     

Inventory competition with yield reliability improvement

This article studies the inventory competition under yield uncertainty. Two firms with random yield compete for substitutable demand: If one firm suffers a stockout, which can be caused by yield failure, its unsatisfied customers may switch to its competitor. We first study the case in which two competing firms decide order quantities based on the exogenous reliability levels. The results from the traditional inventory competition are generalized to the case with yield uncertainty and we find that quantity and reliability can be complementary instruments in the competition. Furthermore, we allow the firms to endogenously improve their yield reliability before competing in quantity. We show that the reliability game is submodular under some assumptions. The results indicate that the competition in quantity can discourage the reliability improvement. With an extensive numerical study, we also demonstrate the robustness of our analytical results in more general settings. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 107–126, 2015     

利用验前信息的一种序贯检验方法——序贯验后加权检验方法

序贯验后加权检验方法是Bayes 统计观点在假设检验中的运用。本文提出了该方法的一般理论,给出了当总体的分布参数具有验前信息时的序贯检验方法。文中确定了决策区的划分,同时讨论了序贯截尾方案,给出了检验中可能犯两类错误的概率的上界,并将一般理论应用于产品的可靠性检验和再入飞行器随机落点的精度鉴定。由于运用了验前信息,因此能有效地在少量试验之下进行统计假设检验。本文所提供的方法对于昂贵产品试验结果的统计评定具有普遍意义。