一种多通道武器控制台的可靠性预计分析

对设计的一种多通道武器控制台的可靠性进行了预估分析.采用元器件计数法和元器件应力分析法,得出了模块级的失效率.按照系统串联结构的可靠性框图,计算出系统的失效率、平均无故障工作时间等可靠性指标.结果表明,预计值满足了系统规定的使用要求.     

C3I系统中基于Petri网的可靠性仿真建模

C3I系统是一个复杂的可修系统,采用通常的解析法和马尔科夫过程法难以求出C3I所需的可靠性参数.故障树能够很好的对复杂系统的故障发生进行定性的分析,而随机Petri网(SPN)能够描述复杂系统状态变化的动态过程,并且能够按照概率进行定量的计算.因此提出将故障树转换为随机Petri网,建立C3I系统的可靠性仿真模型,就可以对C3I系统的可靠性进行定量与定性相结合的仿真.最后建立了一个简单的防空C3I系统可靠性的随机Petri网模型,用Monte-Carlo法仿真验证了该方法的正确性.     

小子样条件下基于Normal-Poisson过程的性能可靠性评定

对于高可靠、长寿命产品,基于性能退化数据分析可靠性是一种行之有效的技术途径。结合航空航天产品性能退化的机理与现场试验小子样的特点,建立了基于Normal-Poisson过程的性能退化模型。论文在对产品性能退化建模的基础上,结合Bayes方法给出了退化模型参数的估计算法和可靠性推断的公式,最后结合实例说明了方法的有效性。     

指数寿命产品可靠性增长试验的Bayes分析

针对指数寿命产品的定时、定数截尾试验方案,推广了Mazzuchi-Soyer模型的应用范围。首先引入模型假设,以狄氏分布作为先验分布,综合利用产品研制的历史信息和专家信息,结合产品研制各阶段试验数据,给出了各阶段可靠性的联合后验分布。然后利用Gibbs抽样算法解决后验推断计算问题,得到各阶段产品可靠性的Bayes点估计和区间估计。最后给出产品可靠性增长分析实例,表明了模型的优越性。     

可靠度限制下相控阵雷达天线阵面T/R单元维修模型

为了描述维修活动对相控阵雷达天线阵面系统的影响,构建了以可靠度为基础的“修旧不如新”定期维修优化模型。对相控阵雷达T/R单元失效下的天线性能参数进行分析,根据指标确定系统不能正常工作的失效T/R单元阈值; 针对大部分维修活动都难以使T/R单元修复如新的事实,引入失效率递增因子,在系统一定的可靠度水平上,以相控阵雷达系统的使用可用度和维修费用率为优化决策参数,建立了系统的维修优化模型,并运用边际效能算法对系统的最佳预防换件维修周期和换件维修组数量进行求解。实例运算结果表明,该模型突破了已有模型“修旧如新”的限制条件,更符合实际,能为维修策略的制定提供理论依据。     

Some new results on the preservation of the NBUE and NWUE aging classes under the formation of coherent systems

We consider the classical problem of whether certain classes of lifetime distributions are preserved under the formation of coherent systems. Under the assumption of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) component lifetimes, we consider the NBUE (new better than used in expectation) and NWUE (new worse than used in expectation) classes. First, a necessary condition for a coherent system to preserve the NBUE class is given. Sufficient conditions are then obtained for systems satisfying this necessary condition. The sufficient conditions are satisfied for a collection of systems which includes all parallel systems, but the collection is shown to be strictly larger. We also prove that no coherent system preserves the NWUE class. As byproducts of our study, we obtain the following results for the case of i.i.d. component lifetimes: (a) the DFR (decreasing failure rate) class is preserved by no coherent systems other than series systems, and (b) the IMRL (increasing mean residual life) class is not preserved by any coherent systems. Generalizations to the case of dependent component lifetimes are briefly discussed.     

Pairwise model discrimination with applications in lifetime distributions and degradation processes

Reliability data obtained from life tests and degradation tests have been extensively used for purposes such as estimating product reliability and predicting warranty costs. When there is more than one candidate model, an important task is to discriminate between the models. In the literature, the model discrimination was often treated as a hypothesis test and a pairwise model discrimination procedure was carried out. Because the null distribution of the test statistic is unavailable in most cases, the large sample approximation and the bootstrap were frequently used to find the acceptance region of the test. Although these two methods are asymptotically accurate, their performance in terms of size and power is not satisfactory in small sample size. To enhance the small‐sample performance, we propose a new method to approximate the null distribution, which builds on the idea of generalized pivots. Conventionally, the generalized pivots were often used for interval estimation of a certain parameter or function of parameters in presence of nuisance parameters. In this study, we further extend the idea of generalized pivots to find the acceptance region of the model discrimination test. Through extensive simulations, we show that the proposed method performs better than the existing methods in discriminating between two lifetime distributions or two degradation models over a wide range of sample sizes. Two real examples are used to illustrate the proposed methods.     

火灾事故与民事侵权责任研究

火灾事故会给受害人造成人身和财产损失,存在民事责任。探讨了火灾事故民事侵权责任,从法律的角度论述了火灾事故民事侵权责任的追究和赔偿,并从建立和完善损害赔偿专家证人制度及火灾保险制度提出了完善火灾民事赔偿制度的建议。     

软件无失效测试数据的统计分析

软件可靠性估计是软件可靠性研究的重要问题之一,文中对分布式软件系统可靠性的评估方法进行了研究,给出了软件系统可靠度的最优置信下限.最后以某大型软件的评估为例,说明该方法的应用.     

装备维修中备件需求率的预计方法

通过研究装备维修过程中器件的固有可靠性和维修性,着重分析了影响维修器件需求率的主要因素.利用系统建模和仿真的方法,分别针对耗损类型器件和可修复类型器件建立了相应的需求数学模型,最后给出了维修备件需求率的预计方法.