Estimating component characteristics from system failure‐time data

Suppose that failure times are available from a random sample of N systems of a given, fixed design with components which have i.i.d. lifetimes distributed according to a common distribution F. The inverse problem of estimating F from data on observed system lifetimes is considered. Using the known relationship between the system and component lifetime distributions via signature and domination theory, the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator _N(t) of the component survival function (t) is identified and shown to be accessible numerically in any application of interest. The asymptotic distribution of _N(t) is also identified, facilitating the construction of approximate confidence intervals for (t) for N sufficiently large. Simulation results for samples of size N = 50 and N = 100 for a collection of five parametric lifetime models demonstrate the utility of the recommended estimator. Possible extensions beyond the i.i.d. framework are discussed in the concluding section. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Some elementary ideas concerning the complexity of system structure

A system of iid Bernoulli components is the starting point in the statistical theory of reliability. This simplification allows for the development of a rich, though elementary, theory for the structure of the system. Two representations play a prominent role in the study of structural reliability. One is the minimal path set representation and the other is the signature representation. By combining the two representations with the Gibbs measure for the state of components, one obtains terms that can be interpreted as the complexity of the system structure. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

A new importance sampling Monte Carlo method for a flow network reliability problem

The exact evaluation of the probability that the maximum st‐flow is greater than or equal to a fixed demand in a stochastic flow network is an NP‐hard problem. This limitation leads one to consider Monte Carlo alternatives. In this paper, we propose a new importance sampling Monte Carlo method. It is based on a recursive use of the state space decomposition methodology of Doulliez and Jamoulle during the simulation process. We show theoretically that the resulting estimator belongs to the variance‐reduction family and we give an upper bound on its variance. As shown by experimental tests, the new sampling principle offers, in many cases, substantial speedups with respect to a previous importance sampling based on the same decomposition procedure and its best performances are obtained when highly reliable networks are analyzed. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 204–228, 2002; DOI 10.1002/nav.10004     

舰船主动力装置系统可靠性的模糊预计

利用模糊数学理论中的综合评判方法,综合考虑多方面的模糊因素,借助于已知单元的可靠性预计舰船主动力装置系统中其它单元的可靠性,进而预计系统的可靠性．     

软件质量保证技术研究综述

概述了软件可靠性研究的必要性 ,从软件开发过程管理、质量保证标准、测试技术、可靠性评估与预测以及形式化规范和验证等 5个方面给出了软件质量问题的解决办法 ,并对所研究的成果做了介绍 .最后指出了在统计测试、形式化方法方面有待进一步研究的问题     

海军装备保障配送中心选址决策指标体系研究

通过对影响海军装备保障配送中心选址决策各因素的分析,建立了海军装备保障配送中心选址决策指标体系。应用主成分分析法,对指标体系中的各因素进行分析,剔除其中相互影响且对指标体系贡献较小的因素,实现了指标体系的精简和优化。对优化后的指标体系进行了信度和效度检验,证明该指标体系具有良好的信度和效度。     

基于响应面法的复合材料层合板平面应力强度可靠性分析

针对处于平面应力状态下的复合材料层合板,考虑其材料参数、强度参数、几何尺寸以及承受载荷等随机因素,用分支限界法识别结构系统的各重要失效序列,应用响应面法对某具体层合板的各失效事件进行计算,进而计算出整个系统的失效概率,并且利用MATLAB程序以及ANSYS中的APDL语言编写了JC法计算程序。计算结果表明,一般情况下层合板首先出现基体损伤失效,然后才会出现纤维断裂失效。这一结果与一些文献中的试验结果相一致,表明这种概率分析方法可以应用于实际复合材料层合板结构的可靠性分析。     

J-M模型改进与可靠性预测研究

软件可靠性J-M预计模型对可靠性测试数据的假设要求比较严格,与实际情况不太符合。针对可靠性测试中各种因素的影响,适当修改了排除错误的条件假设,使得模型的适用性更强。对J-M模型用迭代法确定了参数的估计值,结合1组可靠性测试数据,得到可靠性预测结果。     

舰炮武器系统可靠性指标确定方法研究

舰炮武器系统可靠性指标的提出应当立足于作战使用的需求。从作战使用的角度,依据系统作战效能的影响因素,运用ADC模型研究了舰炮武器系统在战术技术指标给定的情况下系统可靠性指标与系统作战效能的关系,提出一种从作战使用角度确定可靠性指标方法,并通过实例分析验证了方法的可行性,为舰炮武器系统以及其它武器装备的型号研制论证提供参考。     

基于贝叶斯方法的退化失效型产品实时可靠性评估

通过传统可靠性方法得到的失效分布反映了相同受试环境下同一类产品的平均特征,并不能直接应用于系统实时定量可靠性分析。为此,针对有历史试验数据的退化失效型产品,依据局部更新的思想,利用贝叶斯方法最大可能地采用现场测试数据,并将之及时反映到实时可靠性模型中去。结果表明,随着融合现场数据的增多,产品的实时可靠性模型也逐渐全面反映出产品的个性特征。