消防设备的费用估算

通过对防火设备、灭火装备的费用估算,介绍如何利用数学建模的方式进行消防设备费用估算的具体方法,并对火灾过程中装备费用的精确估算方法进行了初步探讨.     

Inventory competition with yield reliability improvement

This article studies the inventory competition under yield uncertainty. Two firms with random yield compete for substitutable demand: If one firm suffers a stockout, which can be caused by yield failure, its unsatisfied customers may switch to its competitor. We first study the case in which two competing firms decide order quantities based on the exogenous reliability levels. The results from the traditional inventory competition are generalized to the case with yield uncertainty and we find that quantity and reliability can be complementary instruments in the competition. Furthermore, we allow the firms to endogenously improve their yield reliability before competing in quantity. We show that the reliability game is submodular under some assumptions. The results indicate that the competition in quantity can discourage the reliability improvement. With an extensive numerical study, we also demonstrate the robustness of our analytical results in more general settings. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 107–126, 2015     

利用验前信息的一种序贯检验方法——序贯验后加权检验方法

序贯验后加权检验方法是Bayes 统计观点在假设检验中的运用。本文提出了该方法的一般理论,给出了当总体的分布参数具有验前信息时的序贯检验方法。文中确定了决策区的划分,同时讨论了序贯截尾方案,给出了检验中可能犯两类错误的概率的上界,并将一般理论应用于产品的可靠性检验和再入飞行器随机落点的精度鉴定。由于运用了验前信息,因此能有效地在少量试验之下进行统计假设检验。本文所提供的方法对于昂贵产品试验结果的统计评定具有普遍意义。     

Analysis of production lines with Coxian service times and no intermediate buffers

This paper uses the holding time model (HTM) method to derive an approximate analytic formula for the calculation of the mean throughput of a K-station production line with no buffers between any two successive stations. Service times follow the two-stage Coxian (C²) distribution at all stations. The paper provides a formula that relates the third moment of the service completion (or virtual service) time with the respective parameters of the service time, the repair time and the time to breakdown (the latter is assumed to follow the exponential distribution). In this way, it concludes that under certain conditions the two-stage Coxian distribution can be used to approximate any general distribution matching the first three moments of the service completion time distribution. The mean holding times (consisting of the service and blocking periods) of all stations of the line are obtained in an analytical form. Numerical results are provided for the mean throughput of lines with up to 20 stations. These results are shown to have a good accuracy compared against results obtained from the Markovian state method (for short lines) and results from simulation (for longer lines). © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 669–685, 1998     

Testing or fault-finding for reliability growth: A missile destructive-test example

A new piece of equipment has been purchased in a lot of size m. Some of the items can be used in destructive testing before the item is put into use. Testing uncovers faults which can be removed from the remaining pieces of equipment in the lot. If t < m pieces of equipment are tested, then those that remain, m₁ = m − t, have reduced fault incidence and are more reliable than initially, but m₁ may be too small to be useful, or than is desirable. In this paper models are studied to address this question: given the lot size m, how to optimize by choice of t the effectiveness of the pieces of equipment remaining after the test. The models used are simplistic and illustrative; they can be straightforwardly improved. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 623–637, 1997     

飞行器低空突防威胁建模与航迹优化算法

提出了一种飞行器在给定地形和威胁分布的威胁场进行低空突防的航迹优化算法。该方法首先对地形的高程栅格数据进行了图形简化预处理,将各种威胁叠加到地形图上,构成一个包含各种威胁的特定威胁场,再对其建立合理的有向图数学建模,用Dijkstra最短路算法进行航迹优化。航迹优化的过程中考虑了飞行器的过载限制,使优化航迹能够较好地满足飞行器各项性能指标及任务规划的要求,仿真结果显示,该算法简单快速,能很好地进行地形、威胁、障碍物的回避。     

基于系统构型替换的固冲发动机故障模式半实物仿真

为全面快速验证冲压发动机的故障检测算法,基于构型替换建立了能模拟多种固冲发动机故障的仿真验证平台。基于此平台,搭建了发动机点火故障模型、压强传感器故障模型、设备接口模型,以及与真实控制器中检测算法具有相同外部接口和系统构型的故障检测算法模型等。通过系统构型的切换,将同一个故障模式注入故障检测算法模型和真实发动机系统,并通过对比同一组故障模式下故障检测模型检测结果与发动机控制系统检测结果,来对发动机控制器中的故障检测算法进行快速验证。以无喷管助推器点火的检测为例,讲述了该方法的建模、实验验证及分析过程,此外,该方法还能应用到无喷管助推器关机、进气道前后堵盖打开、燃气发生器点火、燃气流量容错控制等多个故障模式的仿真模拟与验证,具有很强的通用性,能大大地降低控制系统开发与验证的时间成本,具有很强的应用价值。     

MANET多路径路由中最大可靠性路径选择算法

如何选择路径的数量和质量对多路径路由机制的性能有着重要的影响。已有的多路径算法没有深入研究如何选择多路径的问题。对目前存在的两个典型问题进行了分析,在此基础上研究了路径可靠性模型和虚拟完全非交叉多路径模型,然后提出一个最大可靠性多路径选择算法。算法利用路径权重作为路径可靠性的近似解决方案,以此克服路径可靠性度量问题(NP难题)研究的复杂性,根据路径可靠性模型和完全非交叉多路径模型来选择可靠的路径集,使用这组路径集并行分布流量。应用OPNET模拟平台实现了算法,结果表明,本算法能增加聚合带宽,优化网络带宽的应用,提高网络的吞吐率和多路径路由的性能。     

网络攻击螺旋模型构建及运用研究

网络攻击模型是实施网络攻击的基本遵循依据,本文分析了经典网络攻击链模型存在的适用性不足、全面性欠缺、整体性不够三个主要问题,构建了更适合描述AP T攻击的网络攻击螺旋模型.该模型将网络攻击活动描述为侦察、武器化、渗透与破坏、横向移动、撤出以及评估与改进6个阶段,并设置为螺旋循环式结构,通过对攻击链模型的优化与重构,使模...