装备保障方案综合评价系统的分析与设计

为了科学合理地对装备保障方案进行权衡分析和优化筛选,从装备保障方案综合评价的具体需求出发,提出了装备保障方案综合评价系统的总体结构,基于 OU（组织单元）与 BOU（基本组织单元）的组织建模法构建了装备保障方案综合评价的组织结构模型,设计了系统的角色和各功能模块,并给出系统运作的一般流程和具体事例,验证了该系统的可行性和有效性。     

加权随机模拟的时变可靠性分析方法

针对结构时变可靠性的随机模拟分析方法计算代价大的问题,在极值方法的基础上提出基于加权随机模拟的时变可靠性分析策略.时变可靠性分析需要计算在不同时间处的失效概率,通常需要进行多次可靠性分析,计算代价巨大.所提方法通过对常规静态可靠性的随机模拟方法进行改进拓展,运用加权策略分别发展了加权蒙特卡洛法和加权重要抽样法,使之能够...     

Asymptotic properties of imperfect repair models and estimation of repair efficiency

The aim of this articles is to study the asymptotic behavior of two imperfect repair models, called Arithmetic Reduction of Intensity and Arithmetic Reduction of Age models. These models have been proposed by Doyen and Gaudoin (Reliab Eng Syst Safe 84 (2004) 45–56) and include many usual virtual age models. First, it is proved that the failure intensity of these models is asymptotically almost surely equivalent to a deterministic increasing function with a cumulative error proportional to a logarithm. Second, the almost sure convergence and asymptotic normality of several estimators of repair efficiency are derived, when the wear‐out process without repair is known. Finally, the coverage rate of the asymptotic confidence intervals issued from those estimators is empirically studied. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Estimating component characteristics from system failure‐time data

Suppose that failure times are available from a random sample of N systems of a given, fixed design with components which have i.i.d. lifetimes distributed according to a common distribution F. The inverse problem of estimating F from data on observed system lifetimes is considered. Using the known relationship between the system and component lifetime distributions via signature and domination theory, the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator _N(t) of the component survival function (t) is identified and shown to be accessible numerically in any application of interest. The asymptotic distribution of _N(t) is also identified, facilitating the construction of approximate confidence intervals for (t) for N sufficiently large. Simulation results for samples of size N = 50 and N = 100 for a collection of five parametric lifetime models demonstrate the utility of the recommended estimator. Possible extensions beyond the i.i.d. framework are discussed in the concluding section. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Some elementary ideas concerning the complexity of system structure

A system of iid Bernoulli components is the starting point in the statistical theory of reliability. This simplification allows for the development of a rich, though elementary, theory for the structure of the system. Two representations play a prominent role in the study of structural reliability. One is the minimal path set representation and the other is the signature representation. By combining the two representations with the Gibbs measure for the state of components, one obtains terms that can be interpreted as the complexity of the system structure. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

一种基于协调理论的军事决策过程建模方法

在分析协调理论应用的基础上,针对军事决策过程的建模,基于UML2.0的用例图,提出了基于协调理论的军事决策过程建模方法。应用该建模方法,有利于分析军事决策过程中的核心任务活动及其相关依赖,为指挥员实施平行决策,并发地制订和确定作战方案(Course of Action)提供依据,从而提高军事决策过程的适应性。     

基于Matlab的防空导弹三维弹道仿真

论述了一种基于Matlab的防空导弹三维弹道仿真方法。对导引规律和弹道仿真进行了探讨,以比例导引法为例,建立了防空导弹弹道仿真模型,讨论了部分参数的选取准则及其变化对弹道的影响,并使用Matlab语言进行了三维仿真。最后,分析了导弹速度,目标速度以及比例系数等运动参量对仿真弹道以及遭遇时间的影响。仿真结果表明:该方法对弹道优化设计有一定的意义。     

基于Virtools 4.0的某型船艇柴油机虚拟维修关键技术研究

针对目前船艇柴油机维修训练方式,提出一种基于Virtools 4.0的虚拟维修方法,并对虚拟维修中的虚拟维修建模技术和虚拟维修仿真技术进行研究讨论,重点分析了场景优化、碰撞检测以及交互式维修过程仿真等关键技术。根据实际维修过程,制定虚拟维修训练流程图,编写交互式维修过程实现程序,实现了对船艇柴油机的虚拟维修仿真。最后结合自身的开发经验总结出Virtools 4.0应用中应注意的几个问题。通过对基于Virtools 4.0的虚拟维修关键技术研究,为船艇柴油机虚拟维修训练系统设计开发提供了一定的理论依据。     

伪谱法模拟各向异性/非均匀介质中弹性波的传播

数值模拟一直是研究弹性波在复杂介质中传播问题的有效手段之一。各向异性问题和非均匀问题日益引起关注。伪谱法是近年来发展较快、建立在弹性波动方程基础上的一种数值模拟方法。它的主要特征是将波动方程中的空间微分变换成频域中的乘法运算 ,从而只需要较少的空间格点就可以得到较高的计算精度。介绍了伪谱法及其稳定性条件 ;编制了一个适合于小型工作站或者PC机的模拟地震波在二维各向异性均匀 /非均匀介质中传播的数值模拟程序 ,模拟了各向异性 /非均匀介质中弹性波传播理论 ,分析了裂纹以及各向异性界面对波传播的影响     

A new importance sampling Monte Carlo method for a flow network reliability problem

The exact evaluation of the probability that the maximum st‐flow is greater than or equal to a fixed demand in a stochastic flow network is an NP‐hard problem. This limitation leads one to consider Monte Carlo alternatives. In this paper, we propose a new importance sampling Monte Carlo method. It is based on a recursive use of the state space decomposition methodology of Doulliez and Jamoulle during the simulation process. We show theoretically that the resulting estimator belongs to the variance‐reduction family and we give an upper bound on its variance. As shown by experimental tests, the new sampling principle offers, in many cases, substantial speedups with respect to a previous importance sampling based on the same decomposition procedure and its best performances are obtained when highly reliable networks are analyzed. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 204–228, 2002; DOI 10.1002/nav.10004