Asymptotically optimal component assembly plans in repairable systems and server allocation in parallel multiserver queues

T identical exponential lifetime components out of which G are initially functioning (and B are not) are to be allocated to N subsystems, which are connected either in parallel or in series. Subsystem i, i = 1,…, N, functions when at least K_i of its components function and the whole system is maintained by a single repairman. Component repair times are identical independent exponentials and repaired components are as good as new. The problem of the determination of the assembly plan that will maximize the system reliability at any (arbitrary) time instant t is solved when the component failure rate is sufficiently small. For the parallel configuration, the optimal assembly plan allocates as many components as possible to the subsystem with the smallest K_i and allocates functioning components to subsystems in increasing order of the K_i's. For the series configuration, the optimal assembly plan allocates both the surplus and the functioning components equally to all subsystems whenever possible, and when not possible it favors subsystems in decreasing order of the K_i's. The solution is interpreted in the context of the optimal allocation of processors and an initial number of jobs in a problem of routing time consuming jobs to parallel multiprocessor queues. © John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 732–746, 2001     

综合战场环境仿真软件建模

作为C3I系统重要组成部分的综合战场环境仿真软件要求必须具有开放性和可重用性,以适应战场环境和武器系统的变革.基于以上特点,本文采用UML对综合战场环境仿真软件需求进行建模,采用此方法对该软件进行建模,可以将复杂的综合战场环境仿真系统用简单明了的可视化图形表示出来,为整个软件的开发提供灵活、一致、易读的表达,不仅可以解决软件开发中众多领域人员难以互相交流理解的难题,还可以提高软件的可靠性、可重用性和可维护性.     

An optimal structured policy for maintenance of partially observable aircraft engine components

This paper considers the maintenance of aircraft engine components that are subject to stress. We model the deterioration process by means of the cumulative jump process representation of crack growth. However, because in many cases cracks are not easily observable, maintenance decisions must be made on the basis of other information. We incorporate stress information collected via sensors into the scheduling decision process by means of a partially observable Markov decision process model. Using this model, we demonstrate the optimality of structured maintenance policies, which support practical maintenance schedules. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 335–352, 1998     

Modeling and realization of real time electronic countermeasure simulation system based on SystemVue

In this paper, we proposed a new design scheme of real time electronic countermeasure simulation system. This paper mainly expounds the modeling and realization methods of each part of the whole simulation system, and the real-time property of system has been lucubrated. Electronic countermeasure simulation system is the key part of military training of individuals; it can also allow the realistic evaluation of the performance of modern equipments and techniques. As a proof, we have drawn up a series of simulation scenarios, such as radar electronic reconnaissance simulation scenario, to explain the feasibility and the superiority of our modeling scheme in this paper.     

Adaptive importance sampling for extreme quantile estimation with stochastic black box computer models

Quantile is an important quantity in reliability analysis, as it is related to the resistance level for defining failure events. This study develops a computationally efficient sampling method for estimating extreme quantiles using stochastic black box computer models. Importance sampling has been widely employed as a powerful variance reduction technique to reduce estimation uncertainty and improve computational efficiency in many reliability studies. However, when applied to quantile estimation, importance sampling faces challenges, because a good choice of the importance sampling density relies on information about the unknown quantile. We propose an adaptive method that refines the importance sampling density parameter toward the unknown target quantile value along the iterations. The proposed adaptive scheme allows us to use the simulation outcomes obtained in previous iterations for steering the simulation process to focus on important input areas. We prove some convergence properties of the proposed method and show that our approach can achieve variance reduction over crude Monte Carlo sampling. We demonstrate its estimation efficiency through numerical examples and wind turbine case study.     

装备结构演化规律及重要度分析

以装备设计模块化的现状为依据,运用重要度理论,分析了装备结构演化及其重要度排序的规律。从单一部件逐步演化到5部件结构,以及N部件串并联结构,在此基础上,对演化规律进行了梳理,并对典型结构进行了重要度分析,得到了关于装备结构演化与各部件重要度排序规律,填补了对装备重要度漂移规律的研究空白,为装备可靠性优化设计提供了技术支撑。     

计及技术风险的复杂系统多分辨率风险评估方法

针对技术风险难以直接度量、模型参数设定主观性较强等问题,利用技术成熟度的规范化方法评估系统组成的技术实现条件和难度;通过矩阵化的系统描述及关联关系推理,建立各分系统技术成熟度与系统过程模型动态参数之间的量化关系;采用系统过程建模仿真的间接方法,计算进度或费用超出可承受范围的不确定性,用以评估复杂系统研制的技术风险。通过多分辨率建模方法提高系统分析粒度,使该方法具有随系统演化过程对技术风险评估保持更新和分析粒度提升的能力。     

随机-非概率模型下的船体结构屈服强度可靠性分析

针对在役舰船船体载荷、材料属性的随机特性和实船勘验得出的腐蚀损伤下船体抗力区间特性,提出一种基于随机概率理论和区间非概率理论的随机-非概率可靠性分析模型,分别从区间变量随机化和随机变量区间化两个角度给出该模型的可靠性指标求解方法。基于该模型对某舰船船体结构屈服强度进行可靠性分析,结果表明:该模型既体现了结构变量的客观不确定性又减弱了评估结果的盲目保守性,对于既含有随机变量又含有区间变量的在役舰船的可靠性评估具有很强的适用性。     

空气深度预冷组合循环发动机吸气式模态建模及性能分析

针对空气深度预冷组合循环发动机——协同吸气式火箭发动机(Synergistic Air-Breathing Rocket Engine,SABRE),采用部件法对其进行建模,匹配计算得到吸气式模态下飞行走廊内其性能参数变化规律,并研究其高度速度特性。计算模型可信度较高,推力误差小于6%,能够较为准确地模拟SABRE吸气式模态的性能参数。结果表明:SABRE兼具火箭发动机大推力和航空发动机高比冲的特点,吸气式模态下比冲介于21 300~27 380 m/s,随着高度速度的增大,其推力比冲先增大后减小;SABRE利用预冷器将入口空气温度降低,可使其空域速域拓宽至25 km、5Ma,满足高超声速飞行的动力需求;发动机速度下限由压气机最大流量决定,速度上限则由氦气回路减压器工作限制条件决定。     

The evaluation of a possible future Sino-Japanese armed conflict through the application of the ACEI-model

There is relatively little formal modeling of the economic effects of armed conflicts even though they have substantial economic effects. We set forth a new model, namely the armed conflict economic impact model – ACEI-Model. The model looks at the economic effects of war in three different stages: (i) pre-conflict stage; (ii) armed conflict stage; and (iii) post-conflict stage. The model is based on economic desgrowth (-δ) and other new conceptual indicators. We evaluate an imaginary armed conflict between China and Japan by applying the ACEI-Model.