基于正交设计的雷达实战要素敏感性分析方法

分析雷达对复杂战场环境中诸多因素敏感性大小,在雷达对抗和效能评估技术中具有重要作用。提出了一种基于正交设计的雷达敏感性分析方法,该方法采用正交设计的思想进行仿真试验设计,并用方差分析法进行试验数据的统计分析,具有仿真试验数据样本需求量少,多因素敏感性定量分析速度快等特点,克服了传统分析方法参数较多时计算量大的缺点。最后给出了该方法在远距离支援干扰条件下的应用实例,雷达敏感性分析结果验证了该方法的有效性与可行性。     

某型油料装备升降机公理化设计与方案评价

公理化设计理论为油料装备设计提供了一种新的科学性指导思想。基于公理化设计理论,对某型油料装备升降机进行了设计,并结合正态云模型,使用模糊信息公理对2种不同设计方案进行了评价。通过分析用户需求,给出升降机相应的功能需求和设计参数以及升降机＂之＂字形映射设计过程。使用三维造型软件进行造型和运动仿真,验证了升降机设计的可行性。基于公理化设计理论对油料装备升降机进行了设计和方案选择,验证了该设计方法的有效性。     

Models for production planning under power interruptions

We present a robust optimization model for production planning under the assumption that electricity supply is subject to uncertain interruptions caused by participation in interruptible load contracts (ILCs). The objective is to minimize the cost of electricity used for production while providing a robust production plan which ensures demand satisfaction under all possible interruption scenarios. The combinatorial size of the set of interruption scenarios makes this a challenging problem. Furthermore, we assume that no probabilistic information is known about the supply uncertainty: we only use the information given in the ILC to identify an uncertainty set that captures the possible scenarios. We construct a general robust framework to handle this uncertainty and present a heuristic to compute a good feasible solution of the robust model. We provide computational experiments on a real‐world example and compare the performance of an exact solver applied to the robust model with that of the heuristic procedure. Finally, we include the operational impact of interruptions such as “recovery modes” in the definition of the uncertainty set. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

Predictability of operational processes over finite horizon

Operational processes are usually studied in terms of stochastic processes. The main information measure used for predictability of stochastic processes is the entropy rate, which is asymptotic conditional entropy, thus not suitable for application over a finite horizon. We use the conditional entropy to study the predictability of stochastic processes over the finite horizon. It is well‐known that the conditional entropies of stationary processes decrease as the processes evolve, implying that, on average, their pasts become more informative about prediction of their future outcomes. Some important operational processes such as martingale, models for maintenance policies, nonhomogeneous Poisson, and mixed Poisson processes are nonstationary. We show that as a nonstationary process evolves, it may provide more information or less information about the future state of the system. We develop results for comparing the predictability of stochastic processes. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Facility location for an extraterrestrial production/distribution system

This paper extends traditional production/distribution system analysis to address raw material, factories, and markets located beyond Earth. It explains the eventual advantages of such operations and discusses likely sites in the solar system. It furnishes a typology for production/distribution systems, assessing the fit of each type to space operations. It briefly reviews the physics of orbits. It develops transportation and inventory cost functions for the simplest case of Hohmann trajectories, and for transportation between circular orbits of similar radii using higher‐energy trajectories. These cost functions are used to derive a model of production/distribution system cost, the minimization of which selects an optimal factory location. The paper suggests potential extensions to this work, and concludes with ideas for location research on the novel reaches of extraterrestrial space. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

武器装备的使用可靠性及其保障

在分析武器装备使用中实际可靠性水平的基础上,论述了外界因素和操作人员对武器装备可靠性的影响,提出了在使用维护中武器装备可靠性保障的思路和措施。     

目标选择优化模型及算法

提出了可用于大威力武器火力分配的目标选择优化模型及算法。内容包括：问题的数学描述、问题的等价变换与分解、问题求解的动态规划算法和不同算法的计算次数比较。     

变异系数在可靠性中的应用

对使用变异系数描述随机变量的离散程度进行分析,推导了可靠性工程中常用的4种概率分布的变异系数与分布参数之间的关系.以机械产品整机及其零部件不同失效模式的寿命变异系数的取值范围为实例,说明了变异系数在可靠性工程中的应用.     

Synchronizing pricing and replenishment to serve forward-looking customers

We incorporate strategic customer waiting behavior in the classical economic order quantity (EOQ) setting. The seller determines not only the timing and quantities of the inventory replenishment, but also the selling prices over time. While similar ideas of market segmentation and intertemporal price discrimination can be carried over from the travel industries to other industries, inventory replenishment considerations common to retail outlets and supermarkets introduce additional features to the optimal pricing scheme. Specifically, our study provides concrete managerial recommendations that are against the conventional wisdom on “everyday low price” (EDLP) versus “high-low pricing” (Hi-Lo). We show that in the presence of inventory costs and strategic customers, Hi-Lo instead of EDLP is optimal when customers have homogeneous valuations. This result suggests that because of strategic customer behavior, the seller obtains a new source of flexibility—the ability to induce customers to wait—which always leads to a strictly positive increase of the seller's profit. Moreover, the optimal inventory policy may feature a dry period with zero inventory, but this period does not necessarily result in a loss of sales as customers strategically wait for the upcoming promotion. Furthermore, we derive the solution approach for the optimal policy under heterogeneous customer valuation setting. Under the optimal policy, the replenishments and price promotions are synchronized, and the seller adopts high selling prices when the inventory level is low and plans a discontinuous price discount at the replenishment point when inventory is the highest.     

建筑消防设施运行可靠性探析

简要阐述了建筑消防设施的主要分类、作用、维护管理要求等,着重分析了消防供电、供水、设施联动、人机协调等方面可靠性存在的问题,从落实检测保养、人员素质、预案演练、监督检查等方面分析问题形成的原因,并提出解决问题的几点措施。