基于任务的舰空导弹武器系统可靠性试验设计

针对舰空导弹在作战任务和战斗中的使用特点,构建基于远洋任务的使用剖面,利用试验设计与仿真试验相结合的方法,研究舰空导弹武器系统及分系统可靠性对导弹武器系统作战效能的影响。建立舰空导弹武器系统的可靠性模型和使用模型。设置不同的作战任务背景,提出了基于任务的舰空导弹武器系统可靠性对作战效能影响的指标,在设定的3种典型作战任务模式下舰空导弹武器系统可靠性对作战效能的影响进行了试验设计和仿真研究。通过仿真比较了任务条件下各可靠性指标和设定的可靠性增长对作战效能的影响。     

六方位相对标图法绘算目标运动参数

基于相对运动原理以及观测平台在机动前后以被动方式分别测取的目标六个不同方位,提出了一种观测平台隐蔽确定目标运动参数的相对标图绘算方法。文章论证了该方法的基本原理和给出了具体的绘算原理方法步骤,并对该方法的不同绘算态势下的使用结果与使用影响因素进行了分析。实际绘算使用结果表明,利用该方法绘目标运动参数时的速度与精度能够满足绝大部分态势下的目标运动参数绘算需要。     

高超音速飞行器参数不确定性的自适应控制方法

针对高超音速飞行器飞行控制中被控对象模型参数不确定性的特点,应用简单自适应控制方法设计其纵向控制律。论述高超音速飞行器纵向运动的动力学模型和参考模型的建立,以及基于此参考模型用简单自适应理论设计飞行控制律的方法,并且通过数值仿真进行鲁棒性能验证。仿真结果表明,所设计的控制律可以根据参考模型与实际系统输出之差自适应地调节控制增益,对模型参数不确定性具有较好的抑制作用,设计方法可行。     

基于马尔可夫过程的武器系统相关失效分析

利用马尔可夫过程分别对共因失效和载荷共享失效两种相关失效的系统平均失效时间进行了建模分析。针对同时出现两种相关失效的武器系统进行了实例分析,并将结果和不考虑相关失效时的计算结果进行了对比,对相关失效分析在可靠性分析和评价中的重要作用进行了阐述。     

系统可靠性分配的研究进展

系统可靠性分配是可靠性设计的重要任务之一,其主要作用是为可靠性设计提供辅助决策。给出了可靠性分配流程,研究了可靠性分配模型的发展状况,重点介绍了可靠性分配问题的求解算法,指出了各类算法在分配中的应用及其需进一步解决的问题,同时分析了国内外典型的分配软件,总结了各软件中可靠性分配的主要功能,最后对可靠性分配提出了进一步的研究展望。     

基于ML-Ⅱ的指数分布可靠性多层Bayes估计

Bayes估计法是可靠性评估中应用最为广泛的方法之一,指数分布的Bayes验前概率密度函数中的重要参数主要依靠Reformulation法和Box-Tiao法确定,具有较强的主观经验性。基于Beyes估计的基本思想,以试验数据为依据,利用第二类极大似然估计法(ML-Ⅱ估计法)确定Bayes方法中的相关参数,避免了参数确定的主观性。实例表明结果合理,方法客观、可行。     

A quasi-isentropic model of a cylinder driven by aluminized explosives based on characteristic line analysis

A quasi-isentropic study on the process of driving a cylinder with aluminized explosives was carried out to examine the influence of the aluminum (Al) reaction rate on cylinder expansion and the physical parameters of the detonation products. Based on the proposed quasi-isentropic hypothesis and relevant isentropic theories, the characteristic lines of aluminized explosives driving a cylinder were analyzed, and a quasi-isentropic model was established. This model includes the variation of the cylinder wall velocity and the physical parameters of the detonation products with the Al reaction degree. Using previously reported experimental results, the quasi-isentropic model was verified to be applicative and accurate. This model was used to calculate the physical parameters for cylinder experiments with aluminized cyclotrimethylenetrinitramine explosives with 15.0 % and 30.0 % Al content. The results show that this quasi-isentropic model can be used not only to calculate the cylinder expansion rule or Al reaction degree, but also to calculate the physical parameters of the detonation products in the process of cylinder expansion. For explosives with 15.0 % and 30.0 % Al, 24.3 % and 18.5 % of the Al was found to have reacted at 33.9 μs and 34.0 μs, respectively. The difference in Al content results in different reaction intensity, occurrence time, and duration of two forms of reaction (diffusion and kinetic) between the Al powder and the detonation products; the post-detonation burning reaction between the Al powder and the detonation products prolongs the positive pressure action time, resulting in a continuous rise in temperature after detonation.     

炮射导弹武器动态参数综合测试系统设计

改变传统的炮射导弹武器激光控制和火炮发射系统动态参数的测试模式,基于计算机总线技术、高速图像采集与处理技术以及激光阵元探测技术,设计了炮射导弹武器动态参数综合测试系统。详细介绍了系统的设计方案及其工作原理。该系统在野战条件下可对多种型号炮射导弹的性能进行动态参数测试及评估。     

Network reliability assessment in a random environment

In this paper we consider networks that consist of components operating under a randomly changing common environment. Our work is motivated by power system networks that are subject to fluctuating weather conditions over time that affect the performance of the network. We develop a general setup for any network that is subject to such environment and present results for network reliability assessment under two repair scenarios. We also present Bayesian analysis of network failure data and illustrate how reliability predictions can be obtained for the network. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 574–591, 2003     

On optimality of one‐bug‐look‐ahead policies for a software testing model

The optimality of the One‐Bug‐Look‐Ahead (OLA) software release policy proposed by Morali and Soyer ( 15 ) is re‐examined in this paper. A counterexample is constructed to show that OLA is not optimal in general. The optimal stopping approach is then called upon to prove that OLA possesses weaker sense of optimality under conditional monotonicity and the strong sense of optimality holds under a more restrictive sample‐wise monotonicity condition. The NTDS data are analyzed for illustration, and OLA is shown to be robust with respect to model parameters. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007.