高可靠性软件的极值统计分析

提出了极值统计分析的方法.对于失效数据极值分布函数的拟合检验,采用了相关系数法;对于母体分布的参数估计,则分别采用了最小二乘估计(LSE)和极大似然估计(MLE);最后通过一个实例说明了统计过程,并用模拟的方法证明了最小二乘估计较好.     

基于威布尔过程模型的坦克部署期可靠性研究

通过对某新研坦克部署期故障情况进行具体而全面的统计分析,并采用基于随机点过程的可修系统理论中的威布尔过程模型(AMSAA模型),得出该型坦克部署期的可靠性特点与规律,对于研究新装备可靠性规律和提高新装备的部署保障水平,具有重要的借鉴作用.     

Evaluating methods for the reliability of a large 2‐dimensional rectangular k‐within‐consecutive‐(r,s)‐out‐of‐(m,n):F system

A 2‐dimensional rectangular k‐within‐consecutive‐(r, s)‐out‐of‐(m, n):F system consists of m × n components, and fails if and only if k or more components fail in an r × s submatrix. This system can be treated as a reliability model for TFT liquid crystal displays, wireless communication networks, etc. Although an effective method has been developed for evaluating the exact system reliability of small or medium‐sized systems, that method needs extremely high computing time and memory capacity when applied to larger systems. Therefore, developing upper and lower bounds and accurate approximations for system reliability is useful for large systems. In this paper, first, we propose new upper and lower bounds for the reliability of a 2‐dimensional rectangular k‐within‐consecutive‐(r, s)‐out‐of‐(m, n):F system. Secondly, we propose two limit theorems for that system. With these theorems we can obtain accurate approximations for system reliabilities when the system is large and component reliabilities are close to one. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

Predictability of operational processes over finite horizon

Operational processes are usually studied in terms of stochastic processes. The main information measure used for predictability of stochastic processes is the entropy rate, which is asymptotic conditional entropy, thus not suitable for application over a finite horizon. We use the conditional entropy to study the predictability of stochastic processes over the finite horizon. It is well‐known that the conditional entropies of stationary processes decrease as the processes evolve, implying that, on average, their pasts become more informative about prediction of their future outcomes. Some important operational processes such as martingale, models for maintenance policies, nonhomogeneous Poisson, and mixed Poisson processes are nonstationary. We show that as a nonstationary process evolves, it may provide more information or less information about the future state of the system. We develop results for comparing the predictability of stochastic processes. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

基于作战效能的武器装备可靠性指标评估方法

装备可靠性的评估是装备管理使用中面临的重要课题.在总结前人的研究基础上,提出了一种基于武器装备作战效能的可靠性评估方法:建立非线性指标聚合的武器效能指标体系,通过主客观评分效果对底层指标进行打分,经过非线性指标聚合等手段获取装备效能的归一化评估指数,通过多次评估获取装备效能评估指数数据集,以此为基础对装备的可靠性进行评估.最后给出了评估仿真实例,实验结果表明所提方法的有效性、可行性.     

基于响应平面法的压力容器可靠性评定

针对压力容器制造、使用过程中各种参数的不确定性,提出了一种基于响应平面的随机分析方法.根据某压力容器的结构特点,确定性有限元分析采用了接触有限元,结合中心组合抽样设计构建了容器最大应力的响应平面,以此为基础对压力容器应力分布进行了随机分析.可靠性分析中引入应力—强度干涉模型,并分别对容器壁面和接管处进行了可靠性评定.实...     

基于三角模糊数的舰空导弹飞行可靠性评估

根据舰空导弹飞行可靠性的基本概念,研究了基于三角模糊数的舰空导弹飞行可靠性评估方法,构建了舰空导弹飞行可靠性评估模型;分别给出了导弹发射前检查可靠性、导弹发射可靠性、导弹制导飞行可靠性、导弹命中目标可靠性的三角模糊数评定方法;采用专家评定法,评定舰空导弹武器系统单个设备可靠性的三角模糊数。通过研究,可评定舰空导弹在作战使用环境下的飞行可靠性,为导弹飞行可靠性评估提供一种新的研究方法。应用实例证明了评估方法的可操作性。     

机械系统可靠性设计若干问题探讨

机械系统的可靠性设计是当前可靠性工程界面临的热点和难点问题之一,从分析机械系统可靠性设计的特点和难点入手,探讨了机械系统可靠性建模、分配、预计等机械系统可靠性设计中急需解决的关键问题。     

潜艇纯方位解算质量评估方法研究

针对潜艇目标运动要素解算算法特点,依据武器使用效果探索要素解算质量评估方法。根据潜艇指控系统目标定位跟踪的战术技术指标和鱼雷武器的使用效果对目标运动要素的精度要求,采用统计模拟方法计算鱼雷命中(发现)目标概率以及对应的要素精度要求,并提出在线统计解算要素均方差的研究思路。给出了要素解算质量评估标准、评估依据的实现方法和表现形式。使用概率衡量使用效果,评估要素解算质量较为科学,容易为部队指挥员接受。     

被动声纳浮标目标运动分析及其仿真计算

针对直升机搜索潜艇的特点,研究了被动声纳浮标目标运动分析问题。对固定目标和匀速直线运动目标,分别应用确定性计算和线性最小二乘法进行数学建模及其仿真。仿真结果表明该模型可行,能对被动式声纳浮标搜潜的目标定位提供算法依据。