Predictability of operational processes over finite horizon

Operational processes are usually studied in terms of stochastic processes. The main information measure used for predictability of stochastic processes is the entropy rate, which is asymptotic conditional entropy, thus not suitable for application over a finite horizon. We use the conditional entropy to study the predictability of stochastic processes over the finite horizon. It is well‐known that the conditional entropies of stationary processes decrease as the processes evolve, implying that, on average, their pasts become more informative about prediction of their future outcomes. Some important operational processes such as martingale, models for maintenance policies, nonhomogeneous Poisson, and mixed Poisson processes are nonstationary. We show that as a nonstationary process evolves, it may provide more information or less information about the future state of the system. We develop results for comparing the predictability of stochastic processes. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Multiple subset sum with inclusive assignment set restrictions

In a traditional multiple subset sum problem (MSSP), there is a given set of items and a given set of bins (or knapsacks) with identical capacities. The objective is to select a subset of the items and pack them into the bins such that the total weight of the selected items is maximized. However, in many applications of the MSSP, the bins have assignment restrictions. In this article, we study the subset sum problem with inclusive assignment set restrictions, in which the assignment set of one item (i.e., the set of bins that the item may be assigned to) must be either a subset or a superset of the assignment set of another item. We develop an efficient 0.6492‐approximation algorithm and test its effectiveness via computational experiments. We also develop a polynomial time approximation scheme for this problem. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Network routing for insurgency: An adversarial risk analysis framework

Problems in counterterrorism and corporate competition have prompted research that attempts to combine statistical risk analysis with game theory in ways that support practical decision making. This article applies these methods of adversarial risk analysis to the problem of selecting a route through a network in which an opponent chooses vertices for ambush. The motivating application is convoy routing across a road network when there may be improvised explosive devices and imperfect intelligence about their locations. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

任职教育中案例教学方法探析——以《中国近现代史纲要》课程为例

案例教学法被逐步地引进任职教育的课堂,本文以《中国近现代史纲要》课程为例,探析了任职教育中案例教学法的应用。从教学目的、教学内容和教学对象三个方面分析了《中国近现代史纲要》课程运用案例教学的可行性。从《中国近现代史纲要》课程运用案例教学的意义可以看出,案例教学是作为该课程教学改革的最佳途径。运用案例教学时,在案例选取上兼顾真实性、针对性、时效性,在案例分析过程中注重教学主体和客体的双向交流,在案例总结时注重案例结论与讨论论点的区别。     

基于SEA的雷达组网探测能力评估

对空中目标的探测能力是评估雷达组网作战效能的一项重要的基础性指标,为了客观评估雷达组网的探测能力,提出了一种基于SEA的评估方法,建立了评估的性能量度,构建了系统映射和使命映射的数学模型,并进行了仿真计算.仿真结果表明了该方法的可行性和有效性.     

假目标掩护下飞机突防效果的探索性分析

针对假目标掩护下飞行器突防概率问题,在分析交战双方作战过程基础上,建立假目标掩护下飞行器突防效果模型,然后运用探索性分析方法和工具,结合一个作战示例,对影响突防效果人的训练因子、不同的打击波次、假目标数量等因素进行分析.结果表明:当假目标1～4倍真目标进行掩护时,其突防增益明显,其平均增益可达到10％～35％.     

两级融合系统中目标身份与行为识别技术

建立两级融合系统,联接一级、二级融合系统中的识别功能.提出基于模糊集理论的特征层目标识别技术,基于D-S理论、Bayes理论的时空域决策层目标识别技术、基于贝叶斯网络推理的行为识别技术.解决应用中普遍存在的目标特征界限模糊、身份冲突、身份不稳定、缺少行为识别信息等问题,实现对目标身份和行为的综合识别,以达到对目标的全面...     

面向远火面压制的阵地体系生存效能评估

为满足阵地战时毁伤规律研究需要,以阵地体系为研究对象,从系统的角度出发,探究阵地体系目标生存效能与物理毁伤的映射关系,构建阵地体系生存效能评估模型,并运用蒙特卡洛方法实现阵地目标毁伤模拟,给阵地体系目标的毁伤量化评估与防护决策提供了依据.     

舰艇编队导弹航路规划仿真系统设计与实现

通过分析火力分配、区域划分、航路规划三者的关系,提出了舰艇编队导弹航路规划三位一体战术决策的思想.设计了一个以此为背景,基于高层体系结构(HLA)的可扩展、开放式仿真体系结构.依据HLA/RTI规范,设计开发了仿真联邦的联邦/仿真对象模型.基于系统的离散事件仿真特征,采用事件调度的仿真策略,利用Petri网建立了系统的...     

对新疆高校大学生电子竞技运动的现状分析与探讨

随着电子信息技术业的高度发展,电子竞技运动已发展成为广大人民群众喜闻乐见的一种体育运动。电子竞技运动作为一项新兴体育项目,在新疆高校还处在萌发阶段。本文从新疆高校大学生对电子竞技运动的认知现状入手,对其阶段存在的不足进行分析,进而提出新疆高校电子竞技运动的未来发展前景,旨在实现新疆高校电子竞技运动能否尽早开展起来、填补我区高校一项竞技运动项目的空白,丰富改善在校大学生的业余文化生活,为新疆高校大学生拓宽可持续发展的文化娱乐的天地。