进度风险的随机网络建模与仿真分析

为研究装备研制工程进度的风险分布特征,建立了包含正态分布、β分布、三角分布的随机网络进度风险分析模型,通过蒙特卡罗法仿真获得工程项目的进度估计及其统计分布特性,从而获得工程总工期的风险,并结合实例进行了分析.     

Distribution network design: Selection and sizing of congested connections

This paper focuses on certain types of distribution networks in which commodity flows must go through connections that are subject to congestion. Connections serve as transshipment and/or switching points and are modeled as M/G/1 queues. The goal is to select connections, assign flows to the connections, and size their capacities, simultaneously. The capacities are controlled by both the mean and the variability of service time at each connection. We formulate this problem as a mixed integer nonlinear optimization problem for both the fixed and variable service rate cases. For the fixed service rate case, we prove that the objective function is convex and then develop an outer approximation algorithm. For the variable service rate case, both mean and second moment of service time are decision variables. We establish that the utilization rates at the homogeneous connections are identical for an optimal solution. Based on this key finding, we develop a Lagrangian relaxation algorithm. Numerical experiments are conducted to verify the quality of the solution techniques proposed. The essential contribution of this work is the explicit modeling of connection capacity (through the mean and the variability of service time) using a queueing framework. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

考虑火药中钝感剂含量分布的内弹道计算

针对某新型弹药弹道性能检测的需要,利用气相色谱法对其发射药中钝感剂含量分布进行了测定,建立了考虑钝感剂含量分布的该新型火炮的内弹道模型。模型中钝感剂对弹道性能的影响是通过对火药燃速和火药力的影响来体现的。应用该模型对2个批次的弹药进行了内弹道计算,并对一定樟脑含量的火药内弹道性能进行了预测。计算结果表明,樟脑含量对最大膛压影响较大,但对初速的影响则不如膛压明显。     

Alpha稳定分布混响建模及信号检测

研究了基于对称Alpha稳定分布的浅海环境下混响及噪声的建模问题.分析了浅海环境下混响形成过程及其非高斯特性,采用对称Alpha稳定分布理论对其进行了建模,并从声呐接收端的混响瞬时值以及包络的概率密度分布与Alpha稳定分布的匹配程度验证了模型的有效性.研究了基于对称Alpha稳定分布模型的混响噪声背景下的目标信号检测方法.提出了三种检测方法并进行了仿真测试,通过检测性能及模型的精确性分析了三种方法的优缺点,验证了建模精度对检测性能的影响.     

Production/distribution system design with inventory considerations

This study addresses the design of a three‐stage production/distribution system where the first stage includes the set of established retailers and the second and third stages include the sets of potential distribution centers (DCs) and potential capacitated suppliers, respectively. In this problem, in addition to the fixed location/operating costs associated with locating DCs and suppliers, we consider the coordinated inventory replenishment decisions at the located DCs and retailers along with the appropriate inventory costs explicitly. In particular, we account for the replenishment and holding costs at the retailers and selected DCs, and the fixed plus distance‐based transportation costs between the selected plants and their assigned DCs, and between the selected DCs and their respective retailers, explicitly. The resulting formulation is a challenging mixed‐integer nonlinear programming model for which we propose efficient heuristic solution approaches. Our computational results demonstrate the performance of the heuristic approaches as well as the value of integrated decision‐making by verifying that significant cost savings are realizable when the inventory decisions and costs are incorporated in the production distribution system design. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 59: 172–195, 2012     

不同损失函数下指数-泊松分布的Bayes估计

基于定数截尾样本,在熵损失、Linex损失和刻度平方损失函数下,给出了指数-泊松分布参数的Bayes估计,并证明了所给估计都是容许的。最后给出了随机模拟例子,对所给估计结果的优良性进行了分析比较。     

混合排队规则的战术装备维修保障系统分析

首先将战术装备维修保障过程描述为M/M/c/k混合规则的排队过程,其损坏装备到达服从相互独立的泊松分布,维修时间服从相互独立的指数分布。同时考虑系统的到达率和维修率随系统中装备数量的变化,重要战损装备等待维修时的不耐烦性以及重要装备对一般装备的强占性优先权情况,结合战术装备维修保障系统的结构和规模,建立战术装备维修保障M/M/3/12排队模型。列出模型的平衡方程,采用矩阵的分析方法得到重要装备和一般装备的稳态分布表达式,并以队长为指标进行了系统性能的计算。     

模糊优选动态规划在稀缺军事资源配置中的应用

在对稀缺军事资源配置问题进行数学描述的基础上,建立起评价指标相对优属度计算模型,实现了局部优选。在此基础上,通过分配目标综合评价模型实现了对局部优选数据的综合处理,最后建立资源分配的动态规划模型实现了对方案的优选。最后通过实例演示了解决该类问题的具体方法和步骤,对部队建设具有一定的参考和应用价值。     

想定驱动的仿真资源发现方法

为解决在云间共享架构的仿真环境下资源的自动发现问题,研究了仿真资源请求的描述方法及相应的资源发现算法,提出了想定驱动的仿真资源发现方法.方法通过扩展的军事想定描述语言表示仿真资源请求,使用双映射三过滤算法实现仿真资源的自动发现.分析表明,仿真想定驱动的资源发现方法可以实现在云间共享架构下仿真运行所需的大量资源的自动发现,并对发现结果具有语用校验功能,对于仿真环境的快速部署具有积极意义.     

炮射悬浮式GPS干扰弹靶场试验与评估

为解决炮射悬浮式GPS干扰弹的研制与应用问题,进行了炮射悬浮式GPS干扰弹靶场试验与评估研究,提出了基于雷达、GPS接收机和计算机的靶场试验解决方案和数据处理方法,给出了基于蜂窝结构的干扰弹分布覆盖设计步骤,提出了包括功能性指标、可靠性指标和安全性指标的炮射悬浮式GPS干扰弹评估方法,定义了各评估指标的效益函数。