面向战术训练的装备模拟器的设计

模拟器是战术训练系统的重要组成部分,分析了战术训练模拟器的主要功能要求,从模拟器总体体系架构设计、结构和布局设计、设备设计和选型、软件体系设计等方面介绍了模拟器的总体设计内容,分析了模拟器设计中的关键技术,提出了设计中的应对措施。     

一种新的复合导引头多源异步信息融合精确拦截算法

针对单一制导体制难以满足现代战场作战需求,而多传感器数据更新率不同步的问题,建立一种新的微惯导/毫米波/红外复合制导体制,研究了该体制下多传感器异步信息融合的时间同步和空间配准问题;提出一种自适应Unscented卡尔曼滤波算法,该算法采用预测残差构造状态模型误差统计量,通过自适应因子调整状态模型信息对状态参数估值的贡献,有效控制状态模型噪声异常对状态参数估值的影响。将提出的算法应用到微惯导/毫米波/红外复合制导系统中进行仿真验证,结果表明,提出的自适应Unscented卡尔曼滤波算法的解算精度高于标准扩展卡尔曼滤波和Unscented卡尔曼滤波算法,能有效提高导弹的制导的解算精度。     

复合导引头多源异步信息融合精确拦截算法

针对单一制导体制难以满足现代战场作战需求且多传感器数据更新率不同步的问题,建立一种新的微惯导/毫米波/红外复合制导体制,研究了该体制下多传感器异步信息融合的时间同步和空间配准问题;提出一种自适应无迹卡尔曼滤波算法,该算法采用预测残差构造状态模型误差统计量,通过自适应因子调整状态模型信息对状态参数估值的贡献,有效控制状态模型噪声异常对状态参数估值的影响。将提出的算法应用到微惯导/毫米波/红外复合制导系统中进行仿真验证,结果表明,提出的自适应无迹卡尔曼滤波算法的解算精度高于标准扩展卡尔曼滤波和无迹卡尔曼滤波算法,能有效提高导弹的制导的解算精度。     

几何分布定数截尾步加试验的最优设计

在逐步type-II结尾场合下,研究产品简单步进应力加速寿命试验的优化设计。假定产品服从几何分布,讨论了几何分布产品加速方程如何建立,利用次序统计量的大样本性质,得到相应的Fisher信息矩阵,以对数特征寿命极大似然估计的渐进方差最小为准则结合Fisher信息矩阵,给出了步进应力加速寿命试验的最优分配比例,通过模拟验证最优设计的有效性。     

Humanitarian response to hurricane disasters: Coordinating flood‐risk mitigation with fundraising and relief operations

To alleviate flooding, caused by hurricanes, governments build structural barriers called levees. In addition, relief providers such as the nongovernmental organizations and charities raise funds, and procure and deliver supplies (food, water, and medicines) for humanitarian relief. The strategy for managing disasters must, therefore, weigh the costs and benefits of building levees as well as procuring and delivering supplies. We use a three‐stage decision making framework to study how the investment in levee capacity can be integrated with supply procurements, fundraising, and rapid response. One of our major findings is that a large fundraising cost discourages postdisaster funding, implying relatively large investments in levee and prepositioned supplies. That notwithstanding, a large social value (of saving life) can tilt the balance in favor of postdisaster funding. If the levee capacity increases, funding for predisaster procurement is reduced without affecting postdisaster funding. For a sufficiently large increase in capacity, however, postdisaster response becomes superfluous. We also find that hurricane uncertainty motivates levees with large capacity. In contrast, levee‐failures motivate levees with small capacity.     

Efficient budget allocation strategies for elementary effects method in stochastic simulation

This paper focuses on extending the Morris' elementary effects method (MM) for sensitivity analysis/factor screening originated in the context of deterministic computer experiments to the stochastic simulation setting. Given a fixed simulation budget to expend, the main objective is to provide efficient and accurate estimates of main and interaction (or nonlinear) effects coined by the standard MM for characterizing the importance of each factor, despite the impact of simulation errors. Taking into account both the factor/input sampling uncertainty rooted in MM and the random errors inherent in a stochastic simulation, we develop efficient budget allocation strategies for implementing MM in this new context. Under each strategy proposed, we derive its corresponding optimal budget partition and optimal budget allocation rules. Numerical results corroborate the practical effectiveness of the proposed budget allocation strategies.     

水面舰艇作战指挥效能的灰色模糊综合评估法

通过对水面舰艇作战指挥系统组成及实施指挥过程的分析,建立其作战指挥效能评估的二级指标体系.基于灰色模糊数学理论,提出了水面舰艇作战指挥效能评估的灰色模糊综合评估法.该方法能更有效地解决既带模糊性又带灰色性的作战指挥效能评估问题.     

Integrated guidance and control of guided projectile with multiple constraints based on fuzzy adaptive and dynamic surface

Based on fuzzy adaptive and dynamic surface (FADS), an integrated guidance and control (IGC) approach was proposed for large caliber naval gun guided projectile, which was robust to target maneuver, canard dynamic characteristics, and multiple constraints, such as impact angle, limited measurement of line of sight (LOS) angle rate and nonlinear saturation of canard deflection. Initially, a strict feedback cascade model of IGC in longitudinal plane was established, and extended state observer (ESO) was designed to estimate LOS angle rate and uncertain disturbances with unknown boundary inside and outside of system, including aerodynamic parameters perturbation, target maneuver and model errors. Secondly, aiming at zeroing LOS angle tracking error and LOS angle rate in finite time, a nonsingular terminal sliding mode (NTSM) was designed with adaptive exponential reaching law. Furthermore, combining with dynamic surface, which prevented the complex differential of virtual control laws, the fuzzy adaptive systems were designed to approximate observation errors of uncertain disturbances and to reduce chatter of control law. Finally, the adaptive Nussbaum gain function was introduced to compensate nonlinear saturation of canard deflection. The LOS angle tracking error and LOS angle rate were convergent in finite time and whole system states were uniform ultimately bounded, rigorously proven by Lyapunov stability theory. Hardware-in-the-loop simulation (HILS) and digital simulation experiments both showed FADS provided guided projectile with good guidance performance while striking targets with different maneuvering forms.     

提升装备物资采购保障能力的策略设计

装备物资采购关系到装备保障职能的充分发挥和作战效能发挥能力的积累,其采购保障过程涉及极其复杂的技术问题和管理问题。采购保障策略是开展采购和管理项目所确定的思路和实现途径,完善的采购保障策略设计对于重大的装备物资采购项目的成败具有举足轻重的作用。本文从军队装备物资采购的基本内涵与特点入手,结合工作实践和调查研究,从采购信息运用、流程管控、权责修订、法规约束和需求预测等业务管理层面进行分析,阐述了当前装备物资采购的发展现状,提出了提升装备物资采购保障能力的策略设计,以期实现采购组织、流程和系统的整体优化,为装备物资采购改革中相关措施的修订与完善提供新思路和新方法。     

无人作战的人机融合：挑战与出路

无人作战对于人和机器两个要素的融合提出了巨大的挑战。一方面,无人作战独特的作战模式和作战环境对于自然人的能力素质构成严峻挑战,高度智能化的作战系统运行速度、海量的数据信息日益挑战人类的反应能力和决策能力,虚拟的、远程的、与现实战场隔绝的作战环境日益挑战人类的心理素质。另一方面,机器的高度智能化虽然有利于更好地发挥潜在的作战能力,但也不可避免地带来战争失控和道德沦丧的风险。破解人机两个维度的挑战,实现人与机器的深度融合,一方面要利用增强技术从物理、生理、心理三个层面加速提高人类的能力素质,另一方面是强化机器人的伦理安全设计,坚守人类对机器人的控制底线,规避机器人失控和战争“非人化”的道德风险。