基于SD的科研项目管理动态仿真初探

为解决管理中的动态、非线性等复杂性问题,将系统动力学方法引进到科研项目管理中,依据系统动力学原理,对科研项目管理系统进行因果关系分析并建立了流图模型.实例仿真结果表明:系统动力学方法为科研项目管理的正确决策提供了科学依据.     

军械装备管理组织设计研究

通过对军械装备管理的现状进行系统分析, 应用管理组织设计理论和原则, 对军械装备管理组织结构进行设计。研究围绕军械装备管理对象及军械装备管理环节进行系统分析, 建立相关概念决策数学模型, 确定军械装备管理编组设计方案和岗位设置方案, 为机关进行编组设岗提供决策依据。     

信息化战争环境下的军事装备管理系统组织重构设想

针对信息化战争环境下对军事装备管理系统的新需求,提出了军事装备管理系统组织结构设计的原则,分析了军事装备管理系统组织结构的3种基本类型。在此基础上,依据需求,在探讨了军事装备管理系统重构原则的前提下,进行了军事装备管理系统重构设想,为军事装备管理系统组织变革提供前瞻性的指导。     

Complexity and workload considerations in product mix decisions under the theory of constraints

The literature on the product mix decision (or master production scheduling) under the Theory of Constraints (TOC), which was developed in the past two decades, has addressed this problem as a static operational decision. Consequently, the developed solution techniques do not consider the system's dynamism and the associated challenges arising from the complexity of operations during the implementation of master production schedules. This paper aims to address this gap by developing a new heuristic approach for master production scheduling under the TOC philosophy that considers the main operational factors that influence actual throughput after implementation of the detailed schedule. We examine the validity of the proposed heuristic by comparison to Integer Linear Programming and two heuristics in a wide range of scenarios using simulation modelling. Statistical analyses indicate that the new algorithm leads to significantly enhanced performance during implementation for problems with setup times. The findings show that the bottleneck identification approach in current methods in the TOC literature is not effective and accurate for complex operations in real‐world job shop systems. This study contributes to the literature on master production scheduling and product mix decisions by enhancing the likelihood of achieving anticipated throughput during the implementation of the detailed schedule. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 357–369, 2015     

Selling to strategic and loss‐averse consumers: Stocking,procurement, and product design policies

Motivated by the presence of loss‐averse decision making behavior in practice, this article considers a supply chain consisting of a firm and strategic consumers who possess an S‐shaped loss‐averse utility function. In the model, consumers decide the purchase timing and the firm chooses the inventory level. We find that the loss‐averse consumers' strategic purchasing behavior is determined by their perceived gain and loss from strategic purchase delay, and the given rationing risk. Thus, the firm that is cognizant of this property tailors its inventory stocking policy based on the consumers' loss‐averse behavior such as their perceived values of gain and loss, and their sensitivity to them. We also demonstrate that the firm's equilibrium inventory stocking policy reflects both the economic logic of the traditional newsvendor inventory model, and the loss‐averse behavior of consumers. The equilibrium order quantity is significantly different from those derived from models that assume that the consumers are risk neutral and homogeneous in their valuations. We show that the firm that ignores strategic consumer's loss‐aversion behavior tends to keep an unnecessarily high inventory level that leads to excessive leftovers. Our numerical experiments further reveal that in some extreme cases the firm that ignores strategic consumer's loss‐aversion behavior generates almost 92% more leftovers than the firm that possesses consumers’ loss‐aversion information and takes it into account when making managerial decisions. To mitigate the consumer's forward‐looking behavior, we propose the adoption of the practice of agile supply chain management, which possesses the following attributes: (i) procuring inventory after observing real‐time demand information, (ii) enhanced design (which maintains the current production mix but improves the product performance to a higher level), and (iii) customized design (which maintains the current performance level but increases the variety of the current production line to meet consumers’ specific demands). We show that such a practice can induce the consumer to make early purchases by increasing their rationing risk, increasing the product value, or diversifying the product line. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 435–453, 2015     

基于服务的炮兵通信网络资源管理研究

在分析炮兵通信网络资源现状及资源管理需求基础上,从网络资源池的构建与管理、网络资源的组件与封装、资源池内的组件组合与调度3个方面提出了基于服务的炮兵通信网络资源管理方法,此方法实现了网络资源的"纵向扁平化、横向一体化"管理,使资源管理与网络结构、作战指挥结构松耦合,便于网络资源柔性扩展以及弹性服务的提供,为联合作战条件下,面向多军兵种资源融合与信息共享的统一通信服务实施提供技术借鉴与支撑。     

Conjectures for framing cyberwarfare

Cyberspace has emerged as a potentially new (and unconventional) domain for warfare. Much debate has focused on understanding cyber conflict. The ability to critically analyse this phenomenon is important; however, the nascent nature of cyberwarfare and the complexity of the systems involved create challenges not met by conventional approaches. As a first step, this requires an analytical construct to frame discussions in a way that highlights distinct characteristics of the cyber domain. An approach proposed is one of the postulating conjectures for debate as a way to achieve this and to demonstrate its use, both at the strategic and operational levels. It is suggested that such an approach provides one component of a mature analytical framework for the analysis of cyber across a range of warfare domains.     

Inventory financing under Risk-Adjusted-Return-On-Capital criterion

Risk-Adjusted-Return-On-Capital (RAROC) is a loan-pricing criterion under which a bank sets the loan term such that a certain rate of return is achieved on the regulatory capital required by the Basel regulation. Some banks calculate the amount of regulatory capital for each loan under the standardized approach (“standardized banks,” the regulatory capital is proportional to the loan amount), and others under the internal rating-based (IRB) approach (“IRB banks,” the regulatory capital is related to the Value-at-Risk of the loan). This article examines the impact of the RAROC criterion on the bank's loan-pricing decision and the retailer's inventory decision. We find that among the loan terms that satisfy the bank's RAROC criterion, the one that benefits the retailer the most requires the bank to specify an inventory advance rate in addition to the interest rate. Under this loan term, the retailer's inventory level is more sensitive to his asset level when facing an IRB bank compared to a standardized bank. An IRB (standardized) loan leads to higher profit and inventory level for retailers with high (low) asset. For retailers with medium asset, an IRB loan results in a higher retailer profit but a lower consumer welfare. Calibrated numerical study reveals that the benefit of choosing standardized banks (relative to IRB banks) can be as high as 30% for industries with severe capital constraints, volatile demands, and low profit margins, highlighting the importance for retailers to carefully choose the type of banks to borrow from. When the interest rate is capped by regulation, retailers borrowing from a standardized bank are more likely to be influenced by the interest rate cap than those borrowing from an IRB bank. Under strong empire-building incentives (the bank will offer loan terms to maximize the size of the loan), retailers with medium initial asset level shift their preference from IRB banks to standardized banks.     

面向计算流体力学的图形处理器资源管理

针对求解计算流体力学过程中图形处理器资源利用率低的问题,提出面向计算流体力学的图形处理器资源优化管理方案。基于计算流体力学的算法特性和同时运行任务的执行特点,设计合理的调度方案。通过动态改变不同任务的启动规模和启动时间,在减少资源竞争的同时提高图形处理器资源的有效使用。实验结果表明:本文提出的资源管理方案相比基线方法在不同任务规模下的平均加速比达到 1.64,对图形处理器的硬件资源使用也有了显著的提升。     

ESM量测间歇下雷达/ESM协同跟踪与辐射控制

为减少作战飞机目标跟踪过程中的雷达辐射,提出了一种ESM间歇量测情况下的机载雷达/ESM协同跟踪与辐射控制方法.采用基于IMM-EKF的雷达/ESM序贯滤波算法对目标进行滤波跟踪,利用跟踪过程中的预测协方差与预定门限进行比较控制雷达辐射,并给出了不同ESM间歇时间、控制门限与雷达辐射时间的关系.研究结论有助于提升作战飞机的隐蔽性和生存能力.