停产雷达装备维修器材持续保障风险评估方法

针对停产雷达装备维修器材持续保障过程中存在的筹措断供问题,提出基于改进风险矩阵法和层次分析法相结合的风险评估方法。首先建立保障风险评估指标体系,然后采用改进的风险矩阵进行风险评估,利用采用层次分析法解决存在递归层次时风险因素的评估问题,最后得出装备器材持续保障风险的综合量化值,为提出保障风险规避策略提供数据依据。利用某型雷达器材保障风险评估案例进行数据分析,验证了该方法的有效性。     

Fixed‐interval joint‐replenishment policies for distribution systems with multiple retailers and stochastic demand

We consider a distribution system consisting of a central warehouse and a group of retailers facing independent stochastic demand. The retailers replenish from the warehouse, and the warehouse from an outside supplier with ample supply. Time is continuous. Most previous studies on inventory control policies for this system have considered stock‐based batch‐ordering policies. We develop a time‐based joint‐replenishment policy in this study. Let the warehouse set up a basic replenishment interval. The retailers are replenished through the warehouse in intervals that are integer multiples of the basic replenishment interval. No inventory is carried at the warehouse. We provide an exact evaluation of the long‐term average system costs under the assumption that stock can be balanced among the retailers. The structural properties of the inventory system are characterized. We show that, although it is well known that stock‐based inventory control policies dominate time‐based inventory control policies at a single facility, this dominance does not hold for distribution systems with multiple retailers and stochastic demand. This is because the latter can provide a more efficient mechanism to streamline inventory flow and pool retailer demand, even though the former may be able to use more updated stock information to optimize system performance. The findings of the study provide insights about the key factors that drive the performance of a multiechelon inventory control system. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 637–651, 2013     

The incentive effect of acceptance sampling plans in a supply chain with endogenous product quality

This article studies a firm that procures a product from a supplier. The quality of each product unit is measured by a continuous variable that follows a normal distribution and is correlated within a batch. The firm conducts an inspection and pays the supplier only if the product batch passes the inspection. The inspection not only serves the purpose of preventing a bad batch from reaching customers but also offers the supplier an incentive to improve product quality. The firm determines the acceptance sampling plan, and the supplier determines the quality effort level in either a simultaneous game or a Stackelberg leadership game, in which both parties share inspection cost and recall loss caused by low product quality. In the simultaneous game, we identify the Nash equilibrium form, provide sufficient conditions that guarantee the existence of a pure strategy Nash equilibrium, and find parameter settings under which the decentralized and centralized supply chains achieve the same outcome. By numerical experiments, we show that the firm's acceptance sampling plan and the supplier's quality effort level are sensitive to both the recall loss sharing ratio and the game format (i.e., the precommitment assumption of the inspection policy). © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

How Different Terrorist Attacks Affect Stock Markets

Terrorist attacks adversely affect the Pakistani stock market. However, such effect is short-lived: the market recovers from terrorist shocks in one day. The impact of attack depends on the locations and types of attack. The more severe the attack (i.e. more people killed), the more negative is the KSE-100 index return. Most interestingly, stock market contains information about future attacks. In sum, different tactics of terrorists have varied effects on financial markets, which in turn can predict terrorist attacks.     

Emotions,Risk Perceptions and Precautionary Actions of Citizens During a Military Operation Using a New Defence Technology: The Israeli Case of the Iron Dome

Abstract

The current field study used unique data collected in Israel in July 2014, during a military operation that the Israel Defence Forces (I.D.F.) conducted in the Gaza Strip, in reaction to the thousands of missiles launched from there into Israel. During this operation, the new Iron Dome anti-missile defence system was used to protect Israelis exposed to missile attacks. The study examined factors that correlate with decisions to comply with I.D.F. defence instructions regarding behaviour during missile attacks. In addition, the study examined the relationship between attitudes towards the Iron Dome technology and emotions, risk perceptions, and the decision to comply with I.D.F. defence instructions. The results indicate that stronger positive opinions towards Iron Dome were correlated with lower levels of fear and anger, and beliefs that participant’s chances of being injured by a missile were lower than they had been during previous military operation. In addition, better compliance with I.D.F. defence instructions correlated with being more fearful, angrier at Hamas, living closer to Gaza Strip, and having more positive opinions about Iron Dome. The findings also indicate gender differences with respect to factors correlated with risk perceptions, opinions regarding Iron Dome, and precautionary actions during attacks.     

模糊综合评价法在消防应急救援指挥平台建设中的应用研究

消防应急救援指挥平台建设项目具有涉及随机因素多、适用环境复杂、使用技术先进、投资较大等特征,在分析研究该项目的基础上,构建了基于模糊综合评价法的项目风险评价模型,并应用该模型对消防应急救援指挥平台建设项目进行了风险评价,得出了相应的风险水平,证明了该项目的可行性,提出了降低风险的措施.     

日本出入境管理中的反恐措施及其启示

依据《关于修正出入境管理及难民认定法部分内容的法律》,介绍并分析了日本出入境管理中反恐措施的出发点、由来、具体内容及对我国出入境管理、反恐立法与人权保障等方面的启示。     

消防行政强制执行的现状及制度构想

为进一步明确和规范消防行政强制执行在执法过程中的适用,对消防行政强制执行制度的现状、存在问题进行分析,并提出了完善消防行政强制执行制度的设想。     

论城市公共安全管理网络平台的建设

针对城市的快速发展,各种突发性自然灾害或人为破坏事件增多,在充分分析城市公共安全管理现状的基础上,提出了城市公共安全管理网络平台建设,并对其总体结构,各自功能,技术、政策支持及运行模式进行了深入论述。     

The impact of demand uncertainty on product line design under endogenous substitution

The existing product line design literature devotes little attention to the effect of demand uncertainty. Due to demand uncertainty, the supply‐demand mismatch is inevitable which leads to different degrees of lost sales depending on the configuration of product lines. In this article, we adopt a stylized two‐segment setup with uncertain market sizes and illustrate the interplay between two effects: risk pooling that mitigates the impact of demand uncertainty and market segmentation that facilitates consumer differentiation. Compared to downward substitution, inducing bidirectional substitution through product line decisions including quality levels and prices can yield greater risk pooling effects. However, we show that the additional benefit from the risk pooling effect cannot compensate for the reduced market segmentation effect. We demonstrate that the presence of demand uncertainty can reduce the benefit of market segmentation and therefore the length of product lines in terms of the difference between products. We also propose three heuristics that separate product line and production decisions; each of these heuristics corresponds to one particular form of demand substitution. Our numerical studies indicate that the best of the three heuristics yields performance that is close to optimality. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 143–157, 2015