Risk communication within military decision-making: pedagogic considerations

Risk management is a decision-support process and a vital tool for military planning and decision-making. Today, several nations utilize risk-based approaches to analyze the level of security in military operations. There are both strengths and challenges in applying risk-based approaches to support military decisions. In this article, the challenges related to risk communication are investigated with the aim of describing how a military organization should train to create a good environment for effective risk communication. The analysis finds that it is important for the organization to define and consistently use a shared risk understanding. Such a shared risk understanding will need a systematic development process that focuses on the future decision makers’ and analysts’ education and training. To reach understanding, all involved parties must have the chance to identify the problem, reflect on its implications, test different solutions and develop a solution.     

加强装备竞争性采购廉政风险防控的思考

装备竞争性采购是统筹经济发展和国防建设的重要抓手,加强风险管理是提升装备竞争性采购总体效益的重要保障.从当前纪检态势看,装备竞争性采购是廉政风险集中的重点领域.本文系统梳理了思想道德、制度机制、岗位职责及社会环境等装备竞争性采购过程中可能遇到的廉政风险类型,阐述了竞争性采购项目提出环节、竞争性采购信息发布环节、候选装备...     

基于故障树的系统安全风险实时监测方法

当前的安全性分析方法大都属于预先安全性分析方法,即在系统使用前对系统进行安全性分析。但系统的动态特性,如组成部件工作状态的动态变化,使系统的安全性呈现实时变化。为研究系统的实时安全风险,提出了一种基于故障树的实时安全风险监测方法。该方法用故障树表示系统结构,建立系统安全风险评估模型,根据系统的技术状态参数与系统组件工作状态的对应关系,实时对系统的安全风险进行监测;并根据安全风险监测的情况,对安全风险变化原因做出解释,做到防患于未然。用一个具有前馈控制冷却系统的例子演示了该方法的有效性。     

格拉管线风险评估方法研究

分析了油气管道风险评估技术在国内外的研究和应用情况,针对格拉管线的技术性能和铺设环境现状,认为处于冻土带和地震高烈度带的管线具有较大的风险,并提出了相应的评估方法。对于穿越冻土管道,提出了定性法和有限元法的两级评估体系;对于穿越地震区的管段,分别从一般场地管道、穿越河流管道、跨越河流管道、穿越断层管道等四部分介绍了评估方法。相应的技术和方法可以用来指导管线的风险评估,以保证其安全、可靠运行。     

Modeling and analysis of vessel casualties resulting from tanker traffic through narrow waterways

In this paper, we present a physics-based stochastic model to investigate vessel casualties resulting from tanker traffic through a narrow waterway. A state-space model is developed to represent the waterway and the location of vessels at a given time. We first determine the distribution of surface current at a given location of the waterway depending on channel geometry, bottom topography, boundary conditions, and the distribution of wind. Then we determine the distribution of the angular drift for a given vessel travelling at a given location of a waterway. Finally, we incorporate the drift probabilities and random arrival of vessels into a Markov chain model. By analyzing the time-dependent and the steady-state probabilities of the Markov chain, we obtain risk measures such as the probability of casualty at a given location and also the expected number of casualties for a given number of vessels arriving per unit time. Analysis of the Markovian model also yields an analytical result that shows that the expected number of casualties is proportional to square of the tanker arrival rate. We present our methodology on an experimental model of a hypothetical narrow waterway. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Reseach Logistics 46: 871–892, 1999     

大空间建筑防火设计应注意的问题

大空间建筑是近年发展起来的新兴建筑。本文分析了大空间建筑的火灾危险性 ,并就其防火设计提出了对策。     

武器系统研制进度风险分析方法研究

首先对大型武器系统研制进度风险分析的一般特点进行了讨论 ,然后根据工期要求紧迫项目的特点 ,利用瑞利分布对进度风险分析的方法进行了研究 ,并结合实例对某系统研制进度风险进行了定量分析     

Humanitarian response to hurricane disasters: Coordinating flood‐risk mitigation with fundraising and relief operations

To alleviate flooding, caused by hurricanes, governments build structural barriers called levees. In addition, relief providers such as the nongovernmental organizations and charities raise funds, and procure and deliver supplies (food, water, and medicines) for humanitarian relief. The strategy for managing disasters must, therefore, weigh the costs and benefits of building levees as well as procuring and delivering supplies. We use a three‐stage decision making framework to study how the investment in levee capacity can be integrated with supply procurements, fundraising, and rapid response. One of our major findings is that a large fundraising cost discourages postdisaster funding, implying relatively large investments in levee and prepositioned supplies. That notwithstanding, a large social value (of saving life) can tilt the balance in favor of postdisaster funding. If the levee capacity increases, funding for predisaster procurement is reduced without affecting postdisaster funding. For a sufficiently large increase in capacity, however, postdisaster response becomes superfluous. We also find that hurricane uncertainty motivates levees with large capacity. In contrast, levee‐failures motivate levees with small capacity.     

Prospect theory and foreign policy decision-making: Underexposed issues,advancements, and ways forward

How much mileage can we get out of prospect theory to explain foreign policy decision-making? To answer this question, we first argue that risk as outcome uncertainty is the appropriate definition in prospect-theoretical applications. Then, we indicate that probability weighting—a crucial component of prospect theory—is typically ignored in such applications. We argue why this is problematic and suggest how to move forward. Next, we discuss how to establish the reference point in the face of outcomes in multiple dimensions, as is typically the case in foreign policy decision-making. Finally, we discuss what we have learnt regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions and the differences across individuals in the theory’s applicability. Overall, our contribution lies in identifying several underexposed or neglected issues (e.g., the definition of risk and probability weighting), in examining the advancements regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions, and in discussing avenues for further research.     

The continuing resonance of the war as risk management perspective for understanding military interventions

In the late 1990s and 2000s, a slew of books and journal articles proposed that a nexus between risk management and warfare was emerging. This article argues that risk management ideas continue to shape recent campaigns against Libya, Islamic State, Syria, and the war on terror from Niger, Yemen to Somalia. It uses existing literature on risk and warfare to examine four key aspects of contemporary interventions. First, the article evaluates the overall strategic context as security concerns shift from terrorism toward renewed great power competition. Second, it re-assesses the risk calculus for military action through the language and grammar of risk invoked by politicians. Third and fourth, it addresses the continuing reliance on air power and the managerial ethos of military operations as important features of war as risk management.