Monte-Carlo法在含缺陷管道腐蚀失效概率评定中的应用

腐蚀是引起管道事故的一个主要原因,我国在役长输管道大部分腐蚀严重,因此有必要对含缺陷管道的腐蚀失效概率进行评定.由于B31G规范评定结果偏于保守,因此采用修正的B31G规范对腐蚀缺陷进行评定,考虑到腐蚀缺陷有关参数的不确定性,利用Monte-Carlo法计算含缺陷管道的腐蚀失效概率.通过对一段实际管道腐蚀失效概率的计算,验证了Monte-Carlo法的可行性.     

MTBF保证试验应用条件及风险分析

简介了美军使用的MTBF保证试验,并对进行MTBF保证试验的条件和经保证试验后使用方的风险进行了分析,说明了MTBF保证试验是可以在工程中应用的.     

基于最大后验风险的多层Bayes方法

为了对指数型产品进行可靠性鉴定,首先给出了失效率的多层先验分布,然后从最大后验风险的角度,运用Bayes方法,制定出可靠性鉴定试验方案.按照此鉴定试验方案,缩短了试验时间,从而降低了鉴定试验所需的费用.     

Prospect theory and foreign policy decision-making: Underexposed issues,advancements, and ways forward

How much mileage can we get out of prospect theory to explain foreign policy decision-making? To answer this question, we first argue that risk as outcome uncertainty is the appropriate definition in prospect-theoretical applications. Then, we indicate that probability weighting—a crucial component of prospect theory—is typically ignored in such applications. We argue why this is problematic and suggest how to move forward. Next, we discuss how to establish the reference point in the face of outcomes in multiple dimensions, as is typically the case in foreign policy decision-making. Finally, we discuss what we have learnt regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions and the differences across individuals in the theory’s applicability. Overall, our contribution lies in identifying several underexposed or neglected issues (e.g., the definition of risk and probability weighting), in examining the advancements regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions, and in discussing avenues for further research.     

The continuing resonance of the war as risk management perspective for understanding military interventions

In the late 1990s and 2000s, a slew of books and journal articles proposed that a nexus between risk management and warfare was emerging. This article argues that risk management ideas continue to shape recent campaigns against Libya, Islamic State, Syria, and the war on terror from Niger, Yemen to Somalia. It uses existing literature on risk and warfare to examine four key aspects of contemporary interventions. First, the article evaluates the overall strategic context as security concerns shift from terrorism toward renewed great power competition. Second, it re-assesses the risk calculus for military action through the language and grammar of risk invoked by politicians. Third and fourth, it addresses the continuing reliance on air power and the managerial ethos of military operations as important features of war as risk management.     

加强装备竞争性采购廉政风险防控的思考

装备竞争性采购是统筹经济发展和国防建设的重要抓手,加强风险管理是提升装备竞争性采购总体效益的重要保障.从当前纪检态势看,装备竞争性采购是廉政风险集中的重点领域.本文系统梳理了思想道德、制度机制、岗位职责及社会环境等装备竞争性采购过程中可能遇到的廉政风险类型,阐述了竞争性采购项目提出环节、竞争性采购信息发布环节、候选装备...     

基于灰色关联分析的人员密集场所消防安全评价

近年来,包括商场在内的公众聚集场所的火灾以其多发性和严重性引起人们越来越多的关注。为了控制和防范此类火灾的发生,减少其对人民和社会的威胁,对此类场所进行更为准确、高效的火灾风险评估十分必要。在模糊综合评价方法的基础上,建立了公众聚集场所的消防安全评价模型,采用灰色关联分析确定各因素的权重,并应用所建立的评价模型对某商场进行了实际评估。结果表明此方法具有很好的可行性与高效性。     

烟花爆竹存放使用中的消防安全问题研究

根据烟花爆竹独有的组成成分的火灾危险性,从烟花爆竹存放场所的硬件条件、从业人员的素质、消防设施的设置及产品的燃放等方面。分析了烟花爆竹在存放和使用过程中发生火灾爆炸事故的原因,针对性地提出了预防类似火灾爆炸事故的措施。     

电源插座过载火灾危险性分析

利用反复过载实验方法对电源插座分别采用1.5倍、2.0倍、2.5倍、3.0倍额定电流进行过载实验,在过载3次及6次后分别通以额定电流,得出了一系列温度—时间的变化曲线及相关数据,并进行了分析。在实验所得结果的基础上,分析了插座过载引起火灾的原因,并提出了相应的火灾预防对策,这对预防插座过载引起电气火灾,减少火灾损失具有重要意义。     

西藏边防工作中的制约因素及对策研究

西藏的边防工作在维护国家安全、保证国家经济和社会发展中具有非常重要的地位。但是由于自然环境的恶劣,社会经济发展水平的相对低下,加之国际、国内环境的复杂及边防部队自身存在的问题等,使得西藏边防工作的发展无时无处不受其影响。结合林芝与山南地区的现状,探讨如何合理利用自然环境,改善基础设施建设、帮助群众发展经济、做好边境管理工作,以维护好边境地区的稳定。