超高层建筑火灾防控对策探讨

随着我国经济建设的迅猛发展,超高层建筑不断涌现,但是超高层建筑火灾案例反映出其消防安全问题不容乐观,因此,加强超高层建筑的消防安全管理,提高灭火救援能力,是当前消防部队必须解决的重大课题.分析了超高层建筑特有的火灾风险,从主动预防和有效救援两个层面,探讨了超高层建筑火灾预防对策与灭火救援对策,以提高防控超高层建筑火灾的能力,保护人民生命财产安全.     

Can Smart Defense work? A suggested approach to increasing risk- and burden-sharing within NATO

“Smart Defense” is NATO's new approach to risk- and burden-sharing, which has been a chronic problem within the alliance since the 1950s. Numerous solutions have been proposed, but initiatives resulting in more equitable burden-sharing have never been fully implemented. There are two driving forces influencing a county's willingness to support such initiatives – the economic theory of alliances and the risks posed by the implementation of capability sharing. The authors examine each of these and propose that rather than aiming for group consensus on the production of capabilities, NATO should focus on interoperability through support functions. This approach provides the most likely solution for connecting the forces, doctrine, procedures, standards and other factors of joint capability production such that country leaders find the risks of doing so to be politically and militarily acceptable.     

An enterprise portfolio approach for defence capability planning

Capability-based planning (CBP) is considered by many defence organisations to be the best practice for enterprise-level planning, analysis and management. This approach, loosely based around investment portfolio theory, is premised on balancing the cost, benefit and risk of capability options across the defence enterprise. However a number of authors have recently noted limitations of its current applications. The authors propose a more general, insurance-based approach, which can support the evolutionary improvement of the current CBP approach. This approach is implemented as hedging-based planning and aims to better reflect the enterprise nature of defence organisations, capturing both force structure and force generation aspects of military systems.     

基于FMECA的信息系统软件失效安全风险评估与预测

随着大量软件产品应用于信息系统,不可避免地增大了软件失效对系统安全的影响概率。本文以某信息系统文电收发的处理过程为例,引入FMECA法,对其文电收发处理过程中由软件造成的风险进行分析,同时分析了引起风险常见的失效模式,并引入Markov模型对软件失效造成系统严重危害的风险进行预测,通过Markov模型与FMECA法结合能够迅速定位软件失效的原因,减少因软件失效造成的系统损失。     

A location‐inventory model with lateral transshipments

We study an infinite horizon periodic stochastic inventory system consisting of retail outlets and customers located on a homogenous line segment. In each period, the total demand, generated by the customers on the line, is normally distributed. To better match supply and demand, we incorporate lateral transshipments. We propose a compact model in which the strategic decisions—the number and locations of retail outlets—are determined simultaneously with the operational decisions—the inventory replenishment and transshipment quantities. We find the optimal balance between the risk‐pooling considerations, which drive down the optimal number of retail outlets, and lateral transshipments, which drive up the optimal number of retail outlets. We also explore the sensitivity of the optimal number of retail outlets to various problem parameters. This article presents a novel way of integrating lateral transshipments in the context of an inventory‐location model. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

挣值管理在装备寿命周期费用控制中的应用

在阐述挣值法的概念以及评价指标体系的基础上,建立了挣值管理在装备寿命周期费用控制中的三维模型,并将进度维中的各个里程碑与寿命周期过程结合起来,应用作业成本法对各个里程碑计划价值进行求解,最后举例说明,挣值法能够对装备寿命周期费用进行有效的预测和控制。     

Specification vagueness and supply quality risk

Specifying quality requirement is integral to any sourcing relationship, but vague and ambiguous specifications can often be observed in practice, especially when a buyer is in the initial stage of sourcing a new product. In this research, we study a supplier's production incentives under vague or exact quality specifications. We prove that a vague specification may in fact motivate the supplier to increase its quantity provision, resulting in a higher delivery quality. Vague quality specification can therefore be advantageous for a buyer to screen potential suppliers with an initial test order, and then rely on the received quality level to set more concrete quality guidelines. There is a degree, though, to which vague quality specification can be effective, as too much vagueness may decrease the supplier's quantity provision and hence the expected delivery quality. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

基于改进广义成本函数的可靠性分配优化

可靠性分配优化问题的难点在于影响分配的各类因素与可靠性指标间关系的描述与表达.从可靠性成本与各类影响因素的内在关系人手,通过改进广义成本函数进行各类影响因素的融合处理,构建得出新的可靠性分配优化模型实现可靠性指标的综合求解.     

Alternatives for defense in the Post‐Soviet World: A guide for economists to the U.S. debate

The defense establishments of all major powers are changing to reflect changes in the foundations of national security strategy and resource allocation. The authors believe economists should play an active role in formulating these changes and offer an orientation to the U.S. debate, presenting three major alternatives: the “Base Force” (Bush Administration), Mr. Aspin's Force “C,” and the “Low” Alternative (Prof. Kaufmann and Dr. Steinbruner). These alternatives are compared using first‐order measures of capabilities, budgets and risk. Budgetary estimates are based on newly‐developed analytical tools.     

Book reviews

The Political Economy of Military Spending in the United States, Alex Mintz (ed), London and New York: Routledge, 1992, pp x, 334; ISBN 0–415–07595–5

Penser La Guerre, Penser L'Economie, Christian Schmidt, (Paris: Odile Jacob, 1991), 350p.

Military Production and Innovation in Spain, Jordi Molas‐Gallart, Chur (CH): Harwood Academic Publishers, 1992, pp. vii, 212; ISBN 3–7186–5280–3